Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.884 | EURUSD 1.08574 | AUDUSD 0.60596 | NZDUSD 0.59002| USDCAD 1.413789 | USDCHF 0.97369 | GBPUSD 1.23958 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.08655 | 1.08338
USDJPY 108.192 | 107.804
GBPUSD 1.24216 | 1.23679
USDCHF 0.97462 | 0.97334
AUDUSD 0.60685 | 0.60476
NZDUSD 0.59155 | 0.58981
USDCAD 1.41691 | 1.41174
EURCHF 1.05768 | 1.05577
EURGBP 0.87692 | 0.87394
EURJPY 117.395 | 116.977
For Today
- GBP: A very slow end to the week with the market in Cable slowly drifting from its opening just above the 1.2400 levels to gradually move through to the 1.2370 into the grey hour, Weak offers through the topside through to the 1.2500 level where congestion increases and likely to continue through the 1.2550 area even though there could be some light stops the congestion is likely to continue through to 1.2600 level before opening the topside and the market free to move higher over the coming days, downside bids light through to the 1.2300 level with limited sentimental bids until that level and strong congestion likely to appear before weakness reappears though to the 1.2100 level.
- JPY: Opening just off its lows the USDJPY pushed into the Tokyo session quickly rising from the 10785 area into the 108.00 level pausing and running for a second time through to the 108.20 level before hitting some limited offers and drifting back to the 108.00 level, ranging around the level the market had one final dip to make the lows testing the 107.80 level and defining the range so far and creeping back to midrange for the grey hour, Downside bids likely into and 107.00 level however, a break here opens the chance of further downside losses with the likelihood of very little until the 105.00 area. Topside offers light through the 108.00 level and likely to see increasing resistance only as the market pushes for the 109.00 level.
- AUD: Quiet as you would expect for a NFP day and the expected losses of jobs almost irrelevant, opening around the 0.6060 level and pretty much centring around the level through the grey hour, with a minor push through to the 0.6045 area and unable to push much beyond the 0.6065 area to define the range. topside see’s limited congestion around the 0.6200 level and likely to continue in the same vein through to the 63 cents level where stronger offers possibly lie, downside bids light through to the 59 cents level with some congestion there before opening for another test to the 58 cent area and weak bids through to the 55 cents level.
- EUR: A slow drift through into early Tokyo falling from the opening levels to test the 1.0835 level before attempting to rally only to fail at the opening levels and start a slow drift from the 1.0855 level again to the lows for the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 1.0850-00 area where the possibility of strong congestion however a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1100 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1180-1.1200 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1220 level to open weakness through to the 1.1260 area.
Overnight News
USD:
Bracing for up to 15m US mortgage delinquencies – BBG
Trump hopes Russia, Saudis make a deal, announces it soon DJ
Trump, Russia, Saudi both want to make a deal
Trump: Saudis, Russia may cut oil by as much as 15m barrels
Trump: No concessions made to encourage Russia, Saudis to cut
CNY:
China’s Car part makers face collapsing orders – SCMP
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD AIG Performance of Construction Index (MAR) A 37.9 | P 42.7
CNY Caixin China PMI Composite (MAR) A 46.7 | P 27.5
CNY Caixin China PMI Services (MAR) A 43 | C 39.5 | P 26.5
All Day EUR Germany Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P
All Day EUR France Sovereign Debt to be rate by S&P
0900 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A | C 1.7% | P 1.7%
1230 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (MAR) A | C -100k | P 273k
1230 USD Unemployment Rate (MAR) A | C 3.8% | P 3.5%
1230 USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (MAR) A | C 3.0% | P 3.0%
1230 USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAR) A | C 34.2 | P 34.4
1230 USD Change in Private Payrolls A | C -117k | P 228k
1400 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (MAR) A | C 44.7 | P 57.3
1700 USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (APR 3) A | P 728
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet Asian session with the Cable opening around the 1.2400 level and remaining in the 1.2370-1.2400 level for the bulk of the Asian session the move into the London session saw the topside opening a little through to the 1.2425 area before slipping back to the figure area before rising a second time this time running through to just before the NYK session to test the 1.2475 level, NYK came in selling and the market quickly dipped back through to the 1.2350 level to make the lows however, it was unable to push any further and slowly moved back to the 1.2400 area for the close.
- JPY: A slow rise from early lows around the 107.15 area pushing through into the Tokyo session holding the 107.50 area and ranging around the level for several hours before dipping a little into the grey hours and ranging through to the NYK session holding the 107.30 level in reasonably quiet trading, US data released and the USD pushed quickly through to the 108.00 level and then held just short of the level through to the close with limited attempts above the figure.
- AUD: Rising a little from the opening to push through to the 0.6090 level the market held that topside level through to the London session, early London saw a quick rise through to the 0.6115 level to make the highs before holding quietly through to NYK and dropping quickly back through to make the lows just above the 0.6000 level eventually moving off the lows and struggling steadily back to finish almost unchanged on the day.
- EUR: A quiet session with the Euro held for the most part around the 1.0950 through to the London session before dipping away from the late highs around the 1.0965 area, the market then held the usual 1.0920 level through into the NYK session before being sold off as USD buyers moved in, triggering weak stops through the 1.0900 level to dip to the 1.0860 area before finding stronger bids the market ranged for a few hours through to the London close before making the lows on a dip through to the 1.0820 areas with a light recovery to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
JPY Monetary Base YoY (MAR) A 2.8% | P 3.6%
JPY Monetary Base End of Period (MAR) A 509.8t | P 515.9t
AUD NAB Business Confidence (1Q) A -11 | P -2
CHF CPI Core YoY (MAR) A -0.1% | C 0.0% | P 0.2%
CHF CPI EU Harmonized YoY (MAR) A -0.4% | C -0.5% | P -0.2%
CHF CPI YoY (MAR) A -0.5% | C -0.5% | P -0.1%
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 28) A 6648k | C 3700k | P 3283k
USD Continuing Claims (MAR 21) A 3029k | P 1803k
USD Trade Balance (FEB) A -39.9b | C -40.0b | P -45.3b
USD Durable Goods Orders (FEB F) A 1.2% | C 1.2% | P 1.2%
USD Factory Orders (FEB) A 0.0% | C 0.2% | P -0.5%
Best Regards
Andy
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