Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.921 | EURUSD 1.08392 | AUDUSD 0.63259 | NZDUSD 0.59568 | USDCAD 1.40867 | USDCHF 0.97031 | GBPUSD 1.2457 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.08782 | 1.08375
USDJPY 108.086 | 107.651
GBPUSD 1.25232 | 1.24541
USDCHF 0.96981 | 0.96777
AUDUSD 0.63852 | 0.63181
NZDUSD 0.60248 | 0.59758
USDCAD 1.40915 | 1.4006
EURCHF 1.05277 | 1.05191
EURGBP 0.87020 | 0.8686
EURJPY 117.406 | 116.925
For Today
- GBP: A quick rise from the opening with the Cable touching the 1.2490 areas before slowing for the move into the Tokyo session pushing repeatedly at the 1.2500 area before eventually breaking on the 3rd attempt and testing to the 1.2520 level, the market repeated the failed move before rejecting the level and slowly slipping lower and back to the troublesome 1.2490 level for the move into the grey hour, downside congestion through to the 1.2350 area from current levels could slow any further losses however, a push through the 1.2300 level again opens the downside with limited bids around the sentimental levels, topside offers light through to the 1.2650 level with stronger resistance into the level before weak stops appear and sentimental levels hold limited orders to the 1.2800 level.
- JPY: Opening just off the highs the market drifted a little from the 108.05area back through to the 107.90 level before Tokyo moved in to make the highs just off the 108.10 level through into the first hour and then drifting through the session to range around the 107.70 level through much of the session before putting a little run through to the mid 80’s before drifting back for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with weak stops on any dip through the 106.80 level with very limited congestion through to the 106.20 level and the market seeing only slightly stronger bids through to the 105.80 level with congestion likely to increase below that level. Topside offers light through to the 109.00 level with weak stops not figuring that much on any push above the 108.00 or 109.00 levels with resistance increasing on the move above the 109.00 level with stronger bids above 109.50-110.00
- AUD: Rising into the close in NYK and continuing through to push above the 0.6350 level the Oz seemed to be seeing a lot of buying, maybe the expectations for the GDP numbers out of China being as expected and the need for raw materials desperately needed !! or not, the market tested through to the 0.6385 level on a spike and continued to range above the 0.6350 level and struggle each time above the 0.6380 before running to the grey hour around the 0.6370 area. downside bids light through sentimental levels and likely to continue in that way until the 60 cent level with possibly the round number generating extra support, a push through the level is likely to see patchy levels with congestion around the 0.5950 level and each sentimental level possibly increasing in support, Topside offer s light back through to the 0.6350 level with light congestion returning and then stronger offers on any push through the 64 cents level into 0.6450, a push through is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the 65 cent level tested quickly.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.0840 level the market slowly pushed through to the mid 1.0860’s to range around the level deep into the Tokyo session before slowly pushing through to range through to the grey hours around the 1.0870 and peaking just short of 1.0880 in a fairly quiet session for the Euro. Downside bids light through to the 1.0800 area where the possibility of strong congestion however, a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.
Overnight News
USD:
Gilead Sciences inc. shares surged 16% as report says Covid-19 patients respond to Giliead’s Remdesivir – RTR’s
Stage 3 tests will be available at the end of April Giliead perhaps less exciting than stat reports – RTR’s
CAD:
Poloz: Canada economy can make up lost GDP in couple of years
Poloz: 4-6% GDP drop for 2020 not unreasonable
Poloz: Expects recovery will be like a cursive V
Poloz: Net net this will be a deflationary occurrence
Poloz: Economy should begin restarting before 3Q
Poloz: BoC operations have injected 10% of GDP in liquidity
Poloz: Just oil price drop- would have needed 100bp cut
Poloz: BoC ready to augment scale of any programs if warranted
Poloz: Substantial monetary stimulus needed for recovery
Wilkins: Corporate bond program will buy of one to five years
Wilkins: Canada recovery could begin over the summer
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
CNY GDP YoY (1Q) A -6.8% | C -6.0% | P 6.0%
CNY GDP YTD YoY (1Q) A -6.8% | C -4.5% | P 6.1%
CNY GDP s.a. QoQ (1Q) A -9.8% | C -9.8 | P 1.5%
CNY Fixed assets Ex Rural YTD YoY (MAR) A -16.1% | C -15.0% | P -24.5%
CNY Industrial Production YoY (MAR) A -1.1% | C -5.8% | -13.5%
CNY Industrial Production YTD YoY (MAR) A -8.4% | C -8.1% | P -13.5%
CNY Property Investment YTD YoY (MAR) A -7.7% | P -16.3%
CNY Retail Sales YoY (MAR) A -15.8% | C -10.0% | P -20.5%
CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY (MAR) A -19.0% | C -12.3% | P -20.5%
CNY Surveyed Jobless Rate (MAR) A 5.9% | 6.2%
JPY Industrial Production YoY (FEB F) A -5.7% | P 4.7%
JPY Tertiary Industry Index MoM (FEB) A -0.5% | C 0.6% | P 0.8%
GBP UK Sovereign debt to be rated by Moody’s
0900 EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (MAR F) A | C 0.7% | P 1.2%
0900 EUR Eurozone CPI Core YoY (MAR F) A | C 1.0% | P 1.0%
1400 GBP BoE’s Haldane and Broadbent hold briefing
1400 USD Leading Index (MAR) A | C -7.0% | P 0.1%
1700 USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (APR 17) A | P 602
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Asia saw the highs on the open and then slipped a little lower from the opening 1.2525 area pushing to the 1.2515 level before dropping quickly through to the 1.2475 area bouncing and then continuing on a second test with the market then drifting through to the 1.2460 level for the move into the London session bouncing from the opening through to the 1.2515 level before holding quietly through to midmorning before extending the lows through to the 1.2455 level, then starting a slow recovery through into the NYK session topping around the 1.2515 level, midmorning in NYK saw a quick drop back with the Cable quickly testing towards the 1.2400 level with USD buying possibly a little more effective against the GBP than others, the move through to the close saw the market slowly test back to the 1.2450 area ranging for a few hours around the level.
- JPY: A wide ranging day with the market opening around the 107.40 level and the move into the Tokyo session pushing steadily in waves through to just short of the 108.10 level before running out of steam and buyers with the market moving into the London session falling back steadily through to the 107.70 level and finally breaking lower for the opening in NYK testing the 107.40 opening levels again and then triggering weak stops on a dip to the 107.20 level however, quick USD buying appeared and the market quickly regained the 107.80 level for the London close drifting a little before starting a slow rise to the close.
- AUD: A reasonably quiet session through to late in the session with the Oz drifting back through to the grey hour testing from the 0.6320 to test the 0.6265 area and then spent the London session recovering the 63 cents level and limited range until NYK, NYK saw early buyers testing through the opening level to peak around the 0.6330 area before heading towards the London close slipping back to test the lows again, the run to the close saw a slow rise through the 63 cents area and then a quick stab higher to make the highs into that close.
- EUR: Chatter from Germany about exiting the lockdown as their methods are held up as a success compared to most of Europe, drifting from the openi9ng around the 1.0915 area to push through into the Tokyo session holding the figure level, stronger USD buyers saw the markets dip through the level and the market slowly drift through to the 1.0865 level before holding and recovering a little for the move through into the London opening back above the figure level if only for a few minutes before again dipping and ranging around the 1.0880 level through to deep into NYK before dropping quickly as USD buying moved through the market on what looked to be system led, the market tested into the London close pushing the low through towards the 1.0815 area bounced to the 108.50 level and a quiet run to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD Consumer inflation expectations (APR) 4.6% | P 4.0%
AUD Employment Change (MAR) A 5.9k | C -30.0k | P 25.6k
AUD Unemployment Rate (MAR) A 5.2% | C 5.4% | P 5.1%
AUD Full Time Employment Change A -0.4K | P 5.5dk
CNY New Home Prices MoM (MAR) A 0.13% | P 0.02%
EUR German CPI YoY (MAR F) A 1.4% | C 1.4% | P 1.4%
EUR German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (MAR F) A 1.3% | C 1.3% | P 1.3%
GBP BoE Bank Liabilities/Credit Conditions Surveys
EUR Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. YoY (FEB) A -1.9% | C -1.9% | P -1.7%
USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 11) A 5245k | P 6606k
USD Building Permits MoM (MAR) A -6.7% | C -10.5% | P -5.5%
USD Continuing Claims A 11976k | P 7455k
USD Housing Starts MoM (MAR) A -22.3% | C -17.7% | P -1.5%
USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (APR) A -56.6 | C -30.0 | P -12.7
GBP BoE’s Tenreyro speaks on Monetary Policy During Pandemics
Best Regards
Andy
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