Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.535 | EURUSD 1.08732 | AUDUSD 0.63614 | NZDUSD 0.60312 | USDCAD 1.40012 | USDCHF 0.96669 | GBPUSD 1.25033 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.08842 | 1.08566
USDJPY 107.890 | 107.42
GBPUSD 1.25083 | 1.24705
USDCHF 0.96850 | 0.96635
AUDUSD 0.63698 | 0.63369
NZDUSD 0.60613 | 0.60089
USDCAD 1.40783 | 1.40361
EURCHF 1.05329 | 1.05014
EURGBP 0.87069 | 0.86913
EURJPY 117.223 | 116.729
For Today
- GBP: Opening just below the 1.2500 level and trading initially just above the area and then slowly slipping lower through the session to test through to the low 1.2470 level before pushing back above the 1.2480 area for the move into the grey hour, downside congestion through to the 1.2350 area from current levels could slow any further losses however, a push through the 1.2300 level again opens the downside with limited bids around the sentimental levels, topside offers light through to the 1.2650 level with stronger resistance into the level before weak stops appear and sentimental levels hold limited orders to the 1.2800 level.
- JPY: Patchy opening with the market testing lightly through the 107.50 level before Tokyo opened and started a steady rise through to midmorning pushing towards the 107.90 level only to fail and hold around the 107.80 level through to the grey hours in quiet trading, Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with weak stops on any dip through the 106.80 level with very limited congestion through to the 106.20 level and the market seeing only slightly stronger bids through to the 105.80 level with congestion likely to increase below that level. Topside offers light through to the 109.00 level with weak stops not figuring that much on any push above the 108.00 or 109.00 levels with resistance increasing on the move above the 109.00 level with stronger bids above 109.50-110.00
- AUD: Fairly limited with the market opening on its highs then slowly pushing from the 0.6370 area to test through the Toko9 session pressing the 0.6350 area and drifting in early Tokyo morning testing the 0.6340 level and basing off the 0.6340 through to late into the session before NZ’s Ardern tell the markets that NZ will ease lockdown, this helped the Oz back to the 0.6360 area for the grey hour, downside bids light through sentimental levels and likely to continue in that way until the 60 cent level with possibly the round number generating extra support, a push through the level is likely to see patchy levels with congestion around the 0.5950 level and each sentimental level possibly increasing in support, Topside offer s light back through to the 0.6350 level with light congestion returning and then stronger offers on any push through the 64 cents level into 0.6450, a push through is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the 65 cent level tested quickly.
- EUR: A slow drift from the opening highs around the 1.0875 area and testing through to the 1.0860 and basing along the level through to the grey hour, ranging between the 1.0870-60 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.0800 area where the possibility of strong congestion however, a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.
Overnight News
USD:
Trump suggests China may be knowingly responsible – BBG
Trump: Now says strong USD is good yet markets beg to differ – BBG
Crude gets no supply side held amid hurdles to collective action – BBG
US oil’s May contract skids about 20% at nadir as crude’s woes continue – DJ
Peter Navarro: China used WHO to hide the virus from the world – NYP
Trump: Getting closer to a deal with democrats on stimulus deal, could have and answer Monday – RTR’s
EUR:
ECB officials pushing for Eurozone bad bank – FT
Crops rot as Italian farmers hit by virus and drought
CHF:
The case for an SNB rate cut may be stronger than you think – BBG
AUD:
Australian Banks could face 46% hit to profits from card defaults – AFR
NAB wants mortgage customers tested for virus impact – AFR
Morrison flags unpopular reforms ahead – AFR
CNY/HKD/USD:
China flexes muscles on Hong Kong, prompting outcry from US – BBG
JPY:
Japanese hospitals overwhelmed as nation tops 10k coronavirus cases – FOX
NZD:
PM Arden says country to move out of lockdown on April 27
Pm: The longer country is in lockdown less likely it will have to move back
PM: This week businesses will be allowed to get ready to open
PM: Country will hold at alert level 3 for 2 weeks before reviewing
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD CPI YoY (1Q) A 2.5% | C 2.1% | P 1.9%
NZD CPI QoQ (1Q) A 0.8% | C 0.4% | P 0.5%
GBP Rightmove House Prices YoY (APR) A 2.1% | P 3.5%
JPY Trade Balance (MAR) A 4.9b | C 459.9b | P 1108.8b
CNY 1-year Loan Prime Rate (APR) A 3.85% | C 3.85% | P 4.05%
CNY 5-year Loan Prime Rate (APR) A 4.65% | C 4.65% | P 4.75%
0830 GBP BoE’s Haldane and Broadbent hold briefing
0900 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (FEB) A | P 1.3b
0900 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. (FEB) A | C 20.0b | P 17.3b
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: USD selling from the opening saw the Cable quickly rise from the 1.2450 opening level to test to the 1.2495 level for the move into the Tokyo session, lighter trading through to midmorning in Tokyo pushing quickly to make the highs just above the 1.2520 area before then drifting through to the London session and an opening around the 1.2475 level, the market held and indeed recovered a little from the opening however, it was short lived and the market dipped quickly lower and tested through the 1.2400 level after Moody’s suggested the UK credit rating could be lowed again suggesting that Brexit had caused a paralysis in policy making, a little short sighted for my taste given circumstances around the world at the moment, Cable traded through to the 1.2425 level paused for a short period and ran again to make the lows just below the 1.2410 level before bouncing and starting a steady recovery through to the NYK session opening around the 1.2500 level and remaining in close quarters with the level to the close.
- JPY: Buying in GBPJPY from the opening helped the USDJPY through to the opening highs just short of the 108.10 level however, the move into Tokyo session saw the market dropping back to the late NYK session and the market holding around the 107.70 level deep into the London session before staring a slow rise through to the 107.90 area but unable to regain the 108 handle before NYK came in as strong sellers sending the market through to the 107.30 area and then a rather dull rise through to the close just above the 107.50 areas.
- AUD: A quick move higher into the close saw the market rising from below the 0.6310 level and testing through into the new session testing the 0.6370 level and holding steading through into Tokyo before stabbing above 0.6390 level and fail to make the 64 cents level over the course of the day however, Tokyo attempt the move a few times before dipping for the move into the London opening dippi9ng back to the 0.6340 level hold for a short period before moving lower again and holding for a few hours before recovering the 0.6370 area for the move into NYK, a quiet run to the close with a dull range just above the 0.6350 level and eventually finishing the day around the 0.6360.
- EUR: Early gains were quickly wiped out on the move into London, with the Euro rising through to just short of the 1.0880 level the market slipped back to the 1.0870 areas and a quiet range until moving into the London opening and a triple wave move through to test the 1.0820 before finding sufficient support to generally hold with a minor test to the 1.0810 level however, the move to NYK saw the market rallying in steps through to the high of the day around the 1.0890 level and holding quietly around the 1.0870 level to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
CNY GDP YoY (1Q) A -6.8% | C -6.0% | P 6.0%
CNY GDP YTD YoY (1Q) A -6.8% | C -4.5% | P 6.1%
CNY GDP s.a. QoQ (1Q) A -9.8% | C -9.8 | P 1.5%
CNY Fixed assets Ex Rural YTD YoY (MAR) A -16.1% | C -15.0% | P -24.5%
CNY Industrial Production YoY (MAR) A -1.1% | C -5.8% | -13.5%
CNY Industrial Production YTD YoY (MAR) A -8.4% | C -8.1% | P -13.5%
CNY Property Investment YTD YoY (MAR) A -7.7% | P -16.3%
CNY Retail Sales YoY (MAR) A -15.8% | C -10.0% | P -20.5%
CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY (MAR) A -19.0% | C -12.3% | P -20.5%
CNY Surveyed Jobless Rate (MAR) A 5.9% | 6.2%
JPY Industrial Production YoY (FEB F) A -5.7% | P 4.7%
JPY Tertiary Industry Index MoM (FEB) A -0.5% | C 0.6% | P 0.8%
GBP UK Sovereign debt to be rated by Moody’s
EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (MAR F) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | P 1.2%
EUR Eurozone CPI Core YoY (MAR F) A 1.0% | C 1.0% | P 1.0%
GBP BoE’s Haldane and Broadbent hold briefing
USD Leading Index (MAR) A -6.7% | C -7.0% | P 0.1%
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (APR 17) A 529 | P 602
Best Regards
Andy
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