Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.617 | EURUSD 1.08627 | AUDUSD 0.63363 | NZDUSD 0.60456 | USDCAD 1.41493 | USDCHF 0.96789 | GBPUSD 1.24338 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.08711 | 1.0826
USDJPY 107.793 | 107.479
GBPUSD 1.24451 | 1.23885
USDCHF 0.97115 | 0.9672
AUDUSD 0.63469 | 0.62852
NZDUSD 0.60444 | 0.59812
USDCAD 1.41766 | 1.4115
EURCHF 1.05189 | 1.05148
EURGBP 0.87382 | 0.87275
EURJPY 117.054 | 116 430
For Today
- GBP: Trading quietly through the first half of the session holding around the 1.2440 area before dropping off in midsession to push through the 1.2400 level before ranging through to the grey hour holding the level, downside congestion through to the 1.2350 area from current levels could slow any further losses however, a push through the 1.2300 level again opens the downside with limited bids around the sentimental levels, topside offers light through to the 1.2650 level with stronger resistance into the level before weak stops appear and sentimental levels hold limited orders to the 1.2800 level.
- JPY: A very limited range with the market lifting off the 107.60 area to push through into the early Tokyo session testing the 107.75 level and eventually extended through to the 107.80 area before midsession sellers appeared as JPY safe haven buyers moved through the market testing the lows around the 107.50 level and into the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with weak stops on any dip through the 106.80 level with very limited congestion through to the 106.20 level and the market seeing only slightly stronger bids through to the 105.80 level with congestion likely to increase below that level. Topside offers light through to the 109.00 level with weak stops not figuring that much on any push above the 108.00 or 109.00 levels with resistance increasing on the move above the 109.00 level with stronger bids above 109.50-110.00
- AUD: Opening quietly the market slowly rose from the 0.6335 level to push towards the 0.6350 level before running out of time and the release of the RBA minutes saw the market quickly test towards the 63 cents area holding above the level with light buyers before dropping on a second move through to the 0.6285 area and then running to the grey hour holding just above the 63 cents levels. downside bids light through sentimental levels and likely to continue in that way until the 60 cent level with possibly the round number generating extra support, a push through the level is likely to see patchy levels with congestion around the 0.5950 level and each sentimental level possibly increasing in support, Topside offer s light back through to the 0.6350 level with light congestion returning and then stronger offers on any push through the 64 cents level into 0.6450, a push through is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the 65 cent level tested quickly.
- EUR: A quiet range through to deep into the session before concern about the European data worsening and increasing in depth saw the Euro drop from the 1.0880 level holding area through to the 1.0825 areas for the low before rising slowly through to the grey hour pushing into the 1.0835 area. Downside bids through to the 1.0780 area is likely to see strong stops appearing for a move through to the 1.0740-60 weak congestion from there stronger bids have possibly been building over the past few weeks with weak stops on a break through the 1.0690 areas and opening deeper moves. Topside offers through 1.0900 level and into the 1.0920 area have been building however, weak stops on a push through the level are likely to then see weakness for a short distance before stronger offers into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.
Overnight News
NZD:
RBNZ: Proposing removal of mortgage loan to value ratio in line with bank’s financial stability mandate
BRNZ: Move will help banks’ lending
RBNZ: Plans 7-day consultation then a prompt decision
RBNZ: Will review whether to reinstate after 12mths
The conversation: Delight relief and caution, six experts on move to ease lockdown – NZ Herald
Orr: RBNZ will be assessing need for additional stimulus and strategy – BBG
Orr: Open minded on direct monetisation of NZ debt
SAR:
Saudis consider cutting oil output ahead of schedule as price crashes – WSJ
CNY:
Wuhan’s 11 Million people are free to dine out, yet they aren’t – BBG
USD:
Trump: Were looking at putting as much as 75m barrels into the strategic petroleum reserves, that would top it out.
Trump: The oil price drop is short term, a lot of people got caught
Trump: Asked if he would like OPEC+ nations to make more cuts, says we’ve already done that
Trump: Oil producers need to do more by the market in terms of production cuts
KRW:
US has information that N. Korea’s Kim is in critical state – TEL
US officials studying N. Korean line of succession – TEL
Not true – Yonhap
AUD:
RBA Minutes: Likely that smaller and less frequent purchases of government bonds will be required
RBA: The bank would continue to do what was necessary to achieve the three-year yield target (0.25%)
EUR:
Worsening Euro area data may still not show full damage – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD RBA Minutes of April Policy Meeting
AUD RBA Governor Lowe gives Speech in Sydney
0600 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3m/YoY (FEB) A | C 3.0% | P 3.1%
0600 GBP Claimant Count Rate (MAR) A | P 3.5%
0600 GBP Employment Change 3m/3m (FEB) A | C 100k | P 184k
0600 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3mths (FEB) A | C 3.9% | P 3.9%
0600 GBP Jobless Claims Change (MAR) A | P 17.3k
0600 GBP Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3m/YoY (FEB) A | C 3.0% | P 3.1%
0900 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (APR) A | P -49.5
0900 EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations (APR) A | C -42 | P -49.5
0900 EUR German ZEW Survey Current Situation (APR) A | C -75.0 | P -43.1
1230 CAD Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A | P 0.4%
1400 USD Existing Home Sales MoM (MAR) A | C -8.2% | P 6.5%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening just short of the highs and within the hour pushing above the 1.2505 level to make the high for the day saw steady selling into the Tokyo session to trade down to the 1.2480 level to base on the 1.2575 level through to the London opening, London were sellers through to the 1.2450 level and although midmorning saw a rally to touch above the 1.2480 area it was a brief rally before dropping back to create the lows for the day into the NYK opening around the 1.2420 level, NYK saw the same type of rally a little short of the previous move and the drift to the close was slower leaving a short run to the close.
- JPY: Opening on its lows the early part of the session through into the Tokyo session saw the market rallying from the 107.50 level to push through to the 107.90 level through to midsession before holding steadily around the 107.80 level through to the London opening and the high of the day was quickly seen although barely reaching the 107.95 area before dropping off through to midmorning holding the 107.60 level and ranged through the session between the 107.90-60 area with the run to the close extended around the 107.70 level and the close.
- AUD: A rather quiet session for the AUD particularly through the Sydney session, opening around the 0.6360 level the market slipped through to trade around the 0.6340 area in early trading through to the grey hour, the early London session saw the market rallying through to the 0.6390 level through to midmorning in London before dipping back for the opening in NYK, as with the London opening saw the market pushing to just short of the 64 cents level before spending the rest of the session falling back to close below the opening levels.
- EUR: Very little in the Euro over the course of the day with the market ranging around the 1.0860 level for the most part, opening around the 1.0870 level the market drifted from the early highs through to base along the 1.0860 level through to the grey hour, light selling strengthened into the London opening saw the low posted just above the 1.0840 level and a recovery through the morning session to eventually make the highs of the day on a push through to the 1.0895 areas before slipping back to the 1.0860 levels again for the move through into the NYK session ranging tightly around the level for the first couple of hours, the market slowly pushed towards the 1.0890 level before drifting back and holding quietly into the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD CPI YoY (1Q) A 2.5% | C 2.1% | P 1.9%
NZD CPI QoQ (1Q) A 0.8% | C 0.4% | P 0.5%
GBP Rightmove House Prices YoY (APR) A 2.1% | P 3.5%
JPY Trade Balance (MAR) A 4.9b | C 459.9b | P 1108.8b
CNY 1-year Loan Prime Rate (APR) A 3.85% | C 3.85% | P 4.05%
CNY 5-year Loan Prime Rate (APR) A 4.65% | C 4.65% | P 4.75%
GBP BoE’s Haldane and Broadbent hold briefing
EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (FEB) A 17.3b | P 1.3b
EUR Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. (FEB) A 25.8b | C 20.0b | P 17.3b
Best Regards
Andy
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