LMAX Exchange - unique vision for global FX

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

For Today

• GBP: A quiet range, “dare I say reminiscent of a normal session” with the market trading in a tight range from the opening basing off the 1.2295 level and unable to push beyond the 1.2305 level to early morning in Tokyo before slowly dipping through to now base on the 1.2285 area with the odd stab higher but generally keeping in the 1.2285-90 area to the grey hour, downside likely to see continual congestion through to the 1.2200 area with some concentration around the 1.2250 level then increasing through the 1.2200 area before weak stops appear and further congestion to the 1.2150 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.2450 level with increasing offers through to the 1.2500 level and stronger offers likely to continue through the 1.2550 level and likely catching further heavy offers through to the 1.2600.
• JPY: Very limited movement with the market opening around the 107.75 area and ranging around that centre until late in the session, early Tokyo saw the market testing through to the 107.85 area to make the high for the session before steadily drifting through to the grey hour and some stronger selling moving through to test the mid 107.65 low. Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with weak stops on any dip through the 106.80 level with very limited congestion through to the 106.20 level and the market seeing only slightly stronger bids through to the 105.80 level with congestion likely to increase below that level. Topside offers light through to the 109.00 level with weak stops not figuring that much on any push above the 108.00 or 109.00 levels with resistance increasing on the move above the 109.00 level with stronger bids above 109.50-110.00
• AUD: Rising from the early lows pushing off the 0.6280 area for into the Tokyo session saw the market gradually rise to the 63 cents level and into midsession and a quick stab higher on no news to test just above the 0.6350 area before dipping just as quick to the 0.6315 level and then drifting back steadily to the 0.6300 area for the move to the grey hour. downside bids light through sentimental levels and likely to continue in that way until the 60 cent level with possibly the round number generating extra support, a push through the level is likely to see patchy levels with congestion around the 0.5950 level and each sentimental level possibly increasing in support, Topside offer s light back through to the 0.6350 level with light congestion returning and then stronger offers on any push through the 64 cents level into 0.6450, a push through is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the 65 cent level tested quickly.
• EUR: Opening around the 108.60 level the market slowly drifted through the session with the market testing through to the 108.50 area pushing through to the 1.0845 level for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids through to the 1.0780 area is likely to see strong stops appearing for a move through to the 1.0740-60 weak congestion from there stronger bids have possibly been building over the past few weeks with weak stops on a break through the 1.0690 areas and opening deeper moves. Topside offers through 1.0900 level and into the 1.0920 area have been building however, weak stops on a push through the level are likely to then see weakness for a short distance before stronger offers into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.

Overnight News

OIL:
Europe-America’s fuel: Flows shrink as more tankers float, divert – BBG
IMF:
Forecast of deep global recession will send investors fleeing the property market – SCMP
TRY:
Turkey tees up yet another rate cut despite declines in currency – BBG
AUD:
RBA Expects trials on the far side of Covid-19 – DJ
USD:
House to vote on $480b stimulus bill includes $320b for PPP/small biz, $75b for hospitals and providers, $25b for states to do testing/research – RTR’s
Mnuchin: He thinks this will be the last tranche of money for small businesses, but more could be added in the future – RTR’s
CDC Director says a second wave of coronavirus in the winter could hit the US harder than the current outbreak – BDR

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Opening on its highs just short of the 1.2450 level and then a slow drift through to midsession in Tokyo before moving a little quicker through to the 1.2400 level before finding some support for the move through to the London session, really no difference with early London holding for a couple of hours before again moving again as USD buying moved through the market with the market then steadily pushing through to the NYK opening and the market testing through to the 1.2275 area before finding some quick buyers for the NYK option cut and a quick push back above the 1.2300 level for a short period and dipping again and continuing through to test the 1.2250 level with the market then looking a little exhausted and a slow rise to push through to the 1.2300 level for a long run to the close.
• JPY: A reasonably quiet day for the USDJPY overall, opening around the 107.70 level the move through into the Tokyo session testing through to the 107,80 level to set early highs before moving into a steady decline through to midmorning in London testing through to the 107.30 areas with a minor push through before rising only slightly until the NYK opening, NYK were quick buyers of the USD pushing quickly through to the 107.80 peaking around the 107.90 area the market dipped and then held through to the close ranging between the 107.70-80 area and almost unchanged on the day.
• AUD: Early trading saw the market rise higher into the Tokyo session to create the high for the day around the 0.6340 level before quickly dipping with the RBA minutes testing the 0.6315 level a pause then Lowes comments sending the market through to the 0.6280 area before finding some light buying through the midsession in Tokyo, steady buying through into the early London session to reach back above the 63 cents level before USD buying moved in and as with Cable a steady decline through the session testing through into the NYK session before hitting the 0.6255 areas to make the low and the same NYK option period seeing the Oz lift off the low to test the 0.6310 holding briefly and then dipping back through to 0.6270 and slowly tightening the range through to the close.
• EUR: A quiet opening pushing lightly above the 1.0870 area before drifting through into the Tokyo session to test the 1.0855 area where the quick buying of USD’s saw the Euro testing and trading around the 1.0830 level with the range widening through London before the move into the NYK session and a sudden rally in the Euro from the low just below the 1.0820 level testing quickly through to the 1.0880 area holding to just after the NYK option cut before dropping back and eventually settling down to range around the 1.0860 level to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD RBA Minutes of April Policy Meeting
AUD RBA Governor Lowe gives Speech in Sydney
GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3m/YoY (FEB) A 2.8% | C 3.0% | P 3.1%
GBP Claimant Count Rate (MAR) A 3.5% | P 3.5%
GBP Employment Change 3m/3m (FEB) A 172k | C 100k | P 184k
GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3mths (FEB) A 4.0% | C 3.9% | P 3.9%
GBP Jobless Claims Change (MAR) A 12.2k | P 17.3k
GBP Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3m/YoY (FEB) A 2.8% | C 3.0% | P 3.1%
EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (APR) A 25.2 | P -49.5
EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations (APR) A 38.2 | C -42 | P -49.5
EUR German ZEW Survey Current Situation (APR) A -91.5 | C -75.0 | P -43.1
CAD Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A 0.3% | P 0.4%
USD Existing Home Sales MoM (MAR) A -8.5% | C -8.2% | P 6.3%

Best Regards
Andy

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Group blog - FX industry thought leadership

Daily FX Market Commentary

LMAX Group blog - FX industry thought leadership

Sign up for Global FX Insights, the daily market commentary from LMAX Group