Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.743 | EURUSD 1.08233 | AUDUSD 0.6322 | NZDUSD 0.59544 | USDCAD 1.41604 | USDCHF 0.97142 | GBPUSD 1.23333 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.08251 | 1.08053
USDJPY 107.858 | 107.655
GBPUSD 1.23435 | 1.23131
USDCHF 0.97292 | 0.97118
AUDUSD 0.63187 | 0.62830
NZDUSD 0.59499 | 0.59118
USDCAD 1.41975 | 1.41598
EURCHF 1.05174 | 1.05134
EURGBP 0.87827 | 0.87658
EURJPY 116.660 | 116.45
For Today
- GBP: Rising a little from the opening to set the high around the 1.2345 level and moving through into the Tokyo session the market slowly drifting through the first half of the session bottomed around the 1.2315 level and recovered to move through to the grey hour holding around the 1.2330 opening level. downside likely to see continual congestion through to the 1.2200 area with some concentration around the 1.2250 level then increasing through the 1.2200 area before weak stops appear and further congestion to the 1.2150 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.2450 level with increasing offers through to the 1.2500 level and stronger offers likely to continue through the 1.2550 level and likely catching further heavy offers through to the 1.2600.
- JPY: A limited range for the USDJPY, opening around the 107.75 areas with the low made shortly after the opening a dip to the 107.70 level and a steady rise through the early morning session in Tokyo to test the 107.85 area before dipping away again to the low and slowly recovering for the move through to the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with weak stops on any dip through the 106.80 level with very limited congestion through to the 106.20 level and the market seeing only slightly stronger bids through to the 105.80 level with congestion likely to increase below that level. Topside offers light through to the 109.00 level with weak stops not figuring that much on any push above the 108.00 or 109.00 levels with resistance increasing on the move above the 109.00 level with stronger bids above 109.50-110.00
- AUD: Very little reaction to economic move but some reaction to the commentary from Morrison on the subject of WHO, opening around the 0.6320 level the market dipped into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 63 cents area with a mini spike to get among stops through to the 0.6280’s area failing and then steadily rising through to the 0.6315 area and ranging above the 63 cents area unable to make anything to either side. downside bids light through sentimental levels and likely to continue in that way until the 60 cent level with possibly the round number generating extra support, a push through the level is likely to see patchy levels with congestion around the 0.5950 level and each sentimental level possibly increasing in support, Topside offer s light back through to the 0.6350 level with light congestion returning and then stronger offers on any push through the 64 cents level into 0.6450, a push through is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the 65 cent level tested quickly.
- EUR: Very light trading for the Euro with the market opening around the 1.0820 area with the move into the Tokyo session seeing the Euro dipping through to the 1.0810 level and closely ranging around the level through to the grey hour, Downside bids through to the 1.0780 area is likely to see strong stops appearing for a move through to the 1.0740-60 weak congestion from there stronger bids have possibly been building over the past few weeks with weak stops on a break through the 1.0690 areas and opening deeper moves. Topside offers through 1.0900 level and into the 1.0920 area have been building however, weak stops on a push through the level are likely to then see weakness for a short distance before stronger offers into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.
Overnight News
CNY:
Harbin outbreak looks increasingly dire
USD:
Trump: I have instructed the US Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea – TWT
AUD:
PM Morrison: WHO should cooperate with proposed independent review into the spread of coronavirus
Australian goods exports jump 29% in March – ABS
HKD:
Hong Kong political crisis deepens despite protest lull during virus
JPY:
BoJ: To shorten policy meeting to one day April 27
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD CBA Australia PMI Composite (APR P) A 22.4 | 39.4
AUD CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (APR P) A 45.6 | P 49.7
AUD CBA Australia PMI Services (APR P) A 19.6 | P 38.5
JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (APR P) A 43.7 | P 44.8
NZD Credit Card Spending YoY (MAR) A -8.2% | P 2.5%
0600 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence (MAY) A | C -1.7 | P 2.7
0600 GBP Central Government NCR (MAR) A | P -2.5b
0600 GBP PSNB ex Banking Groups (MAR) A | C 2.7B | P 0.3b
0600 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (MAR) A | P 1.4b
0600 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (MAR) A | C 2.0b | P -0.4b
0730 EUR Markit Germany Services PMI (APR P) A | C 28.1 | P 31.7
0730 EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (APR P) A | C 39.0 | P 45.4
0800 EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (APR P) A | C 25.9 | P 29.7
0800 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (APR P) A | C 38.0 | P 44.5
0800 EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (APR P) A | C 23.5 | P 26.4
0830 GBP Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (APR P) A | C 42.0 | P 47.8
0830 GBP Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (APR P) A | C 31 | P 36
0830 GBP Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (APR P) A | C 29.0 | P 34.5
1100 MXN Bi-Weekly CPI (APR 15) A | C -56% | P -0.78%
1100 MXN BI-Weekly CPI YoY (APR 15) A | C 2.31% | P 2.79%
1230 USD Continuing Claims (APR 11) A | C 17271k | P 11976k
1230 USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 18) A | C 4500k | P 5245k
1345 USD Markit US Composite PMI (APR P) A | P 40.9
1345 USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (APR P) A | C 36 | P 48.5
1345 USD Markit US Services PMI (APR P) A | C 31.3 | P 39.8
1400 USD New Home Sales MoM (MAR) A | C -16.0% | P -4.4%
2301 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (APR P) A | C -40 | P -34
2330 JPY National CPI YoY (MAR) A | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
2330 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY (MAR) A | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
2330 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (MAR) A | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Drifting through the Asian session with the early highs testing the 1.2305 level and trading initially in a tight range, the move through deeper into the Tokyo session saw the market slowly dipping through to the grey hour and the low of the day around the 1.2275 level before the grey hour saw steady buying moving into the market and the initial push through to the 1.2325 level into the London opening and then a secondary run after a brief pause testing this time to the 1.2345 level and repeating the same pattern through to just before the NYK opening and finally touching the highs around the 1.2385 level before drifting through to the NYK option cut and the market quickly dipping for the move to the 1.2315 area, with the market starting to hold in a tighter range through to the close.
- JPY: A weak opening saw the market filling in the gap rising from the 107.70 area and testing to just above the 107.80 level into the Tokyo session before extending the highs a little deeper into the Tokyo morning extending it by 5 pips, the move through to the grey hour was in the opposite direction with the USD drifting on Oil concerns or generally suffering from swings and roundabouts as the market suffers from short termism with no one willing to back any individual currency, through midsession and into the grey hour and the London opening the market drifted to the 107.55 area and posting the low, London were slow buyers with limed action taking the market through to the opening levels only before NYK stepped in to push slowly through to the 107.95 area and the high of the day, London close saw the market give up the 107.80-90 range and a small drift to the close.
- AUD: Opening just above the lows with the market making an early test just below the 0.6280 level before rising to trade around the 0.6290-0.6300 area through to midsession to a sudden quick stab higher testing through 0.6350 level only to drop back to the 0.6320 level initially just as quickly and then slipping back to the 63 cents area for the move into the London opening, London were slow steady buyers and the highs were again tested eventually late in the morning session before ranging in the 0.6330-40 area through to the NYK session and a slow drifting through to the 0.6300 cents level to eventually hover around the 0.6320 area to the close.
- EUR: A slow drift through to the London session with the Euro dipping away from the opening high around the 1.0865 level to test the 1.0845 area with very little movement, London opening saw the market rally a little to test the 1.0870 area before ranging through to the NYK opening pushing the 1.0885 areas before showing a steady decline through into weak stops on a break of the 1.0850 area and pushing the market through to the London close testing the 1.0820 area, a brief period with the market holding the level before the single attempt through to the 1.0800 level and a reject but with a limited recovery on a long run to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD Westpac Leading Index MoM (MAR) A -0.84% | P -0.39%
GBP CPI YoY (MAR) A 1.5% | C 1.5% | P 1.7%
GBP Core CPI YoY (MAR) A 1.6% | C 1.6% | P 1.7%
GBP CPIH YoY (MAR) A 1.4% | 1.6% | P 1.7%
GBP CPI MoM (MAR) A 0.0% | C 0.0% | P 0.4%
GBP House Price Index YoY (FEB) A 1.1% | C 1.6% | P 1.3%
EUR ECB’s Rehn Speaks on Coronavirus impact, monetary policy
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 17) A -0.3% | P 7.3%
CAD CPI YoY (MAR) A 0.9% | C 1.1% | P 2.2%
CAD CPI n.s.a. MoM (MAR) A -0.6% | P 0.4%
USD House Price Index MoM (FEB) A 0.7% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%
EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (APR A) A -22.7 | C -20.0 | P -11.6
USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (APR 17) A 15022k | P 19248k
Best Regards
Andy
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