Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.614 | EURUSD 1.07773 | AUDUSD 0.63708 | NZDUSD 0.60226 | USDCAD 1.40733 | USDCHF 0.97602 | GBPUSD 1.23453 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

 

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.07846 | 1.07618

USDJPY                107.760 | 107.558

GBPUSD               1.23643 | 1.23391

USDCHF               0.97720 | 0.97598

AUDUSD              0.63812 | 0.63512

NZDUSD               0.60123 | 0.5984

USDCAD               1.40877 | 1.40554

EURCHF               1.05196 | 1.05186

EURGBP               0.87236 | 0.87154

EURJPY                116.064 | 115.828

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: A very quiet session for Cable with the market stable around the 1.2350 area through into the Tokyo session with the market initially pushing towards the 1.2360 level before dipping down through to the 1.2340 area to more or less define the range, downside likely to see continual congestion through to the 1.2200 area with some concentration around the 1.2250 level then increasing through the 1.2200 area before weak stops appear and further congestion to the 1.2150 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.2450 level with increasing offers through to the 1.2500 level and stronger offers likely to continue through the 1.2550 level and likely catching further heavy offers through to the 1.2600.
  • JPY: Drifting from the opening to test the 107.55 level before moving into the Tokyo session and slowly pushing to just above the 107.75 area in quiet trading and holding around the 107.65 level through to the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with weak stops on any dip through the 106.80 level with very limited congestion through to the 106.20 level and the market seeing only slightly stronger bids through to the 105.80 level with congestion likely to increase below that level. Topside offers light through to the 109.00 level with weak stops not figuring that much on any push above the 108.00 or 109.00 levels with resistance increasing on the move above the 109.00 level with stronger bids above 109.50-110.00
  • AUD: The widest ranging of the four pairs we look at with the market initially rising from the 0.6370 level to test into early Tokyo pushing the 0.6380 area in quiet trading before dropping back quickly to test to the lows around the 0.6350 area to find a base, limited movement from there with the range for the session defined and moving into the grey hour holding around the 0.6360 level, downside bids light through sentimental levels and likely to continue in that way until the 60 cent level with possibly the round number generating extra support, a push through the level is likely to see patchy levels with congestion around the 0.5950 level and each sentimental level possibly increasing in support, Topside offer s light back through to the 0.6350 level with light congestion returning and then stronger offers on any push through the 64 cents level into 0.6450, a push through is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the 65 cent level tested quickly.
  • EUR: Slow trading through the session with the market opening around the 1.0780 level and then drifting through into the Tokyo session to trade around the 1.0770 level to the grey hour, Downside bids through the 1.0760 area is likely to to the 1.0740 weak congestion from there stronger bids have possibly been building over the past few weeks with weak stops on a break through the 1.0690 areas and opening deeper moves. Topside offers through 1.0900 level and into the 1.0920 area have been building however, weak stops on a push through the level are likely to then see weakness for a short distance before stronger offers into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.

 

 

Overnight News

 

NZD:

Robertson: Some distance from opening border

Robertson: Border restrictions for significant period

USD:

Gilead disputes report that its drug flopped in leaked coronavirus trial

US House passes $500b coronavirus bill and oversight panel

MXN:

Mexico’s Pemex declare force majeure on fuel imports from trading arm

EUR:

EU lays out trillion euro escape route from Coronavirus pandemic

Lagarde tells EU leaders GDP may fall up to 15% on Coronavirus

GBP:

UK PM plans return to work as soon as Monday – TEL

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

GBP        GfK Consumer Confidence (APR P) A -34 | C -40 | P -34

JPY         National CPI YoY (MAR) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%

JPY         National CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY (MAR) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%

JPY         National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (MAR) A 0.6% | C 0.6% | P 0.6%

JPY         All Industry Activity Index MoM (FEB) A -0.6% | C -0.5% | P 0.8%

All Day EUR       Italy Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P

All Day  GBP        UK Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P

0600      GBP        Retail Sales ex-Auto Fuel YoY (MAR) A | C -4.7% | P 0.5%

0800      EUR       German IFO Business Climate (APR) A | C 80.0 | P 86.1

0800      EUR       German IFO Current Assessment (APR) A | C 81 | P 93

0800      EUR       German IFO Expectations (APR) A | C 75.0 | P 79.7

1100      MXN      Economic Activity IGAE YoY (FEB) A | C -0.9% | P -0.81%

1230      USD       Durable Goods Orders (MAR P) A | C -12.0% | P 1.2%

1230      USD       Durables Ex Transportation (MAR P) A | C -5.8% | P -0.6%

1400      USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment (APR F) A | C 67.9 | P 71

1700      USD       Baker Hughes US Rig Count (APR 24) A | P 529

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Light push from the opening around the 1.2330 and testing to the 1.2345 area on the move through into the Tokyo session, dipping away after a short while to push through the 1.2315 level and hold then quietly around the 1.2325 into the grey hour, early buying saw the London session opening with a push through the 1.2375 level before swiftly dipping back to test the 1.2310 as GBP numbers obviously failed to impress however, once the bad news was out of the way the market quickly recovered to the 1.2350 area for long run to the NYK session with a minor test to the highs again but generally moving through into the NYK session holding the 1.2350 level in a tight range, NYK buyers took the market to the highs with a push through to the 1.2415 level and some weak stops triggered along the way however, the move seemed to be more a lack of sellers than anything else and once it pushed above the 1.2400 level the market drifted steadily back to the holding area around the 1.2350 area for a long run to the close.
  • JPY: A quiet session with the market rising from the 107.75 area to test to the 107.85 area before dipping back and making the early low around the 107.70 level to set the rang through into the London session, a quick run lower just after the opening saw the USDJPY trade through to the 107.55 level pause before slowly slipping through into the NYK session testing the low into the mid 107.30’s before the opening of a stronger WTI market helped the USD rise quickly through the 108.00 level on a reach then dropping back to the 107.70 area and a slow drift through to the 107.40 before a steady rise for the run to the close.
  • AUD: Opening quietly the market drifted into the Tokyo session testing through to the 63 cents area, stabbing a little through to the 0.6285 area before slowly rising again through to the 0.6315 just off the opening levels, the move into the grey hour saw some late Asian buying moving through the market and the move into the London session followed through for a stab to the 0.6370 level before drifting back and slowly rising through to the NYK session again testing the highs, the market eventually pushed to the 0.6380 level holding for a couple of hours before pushing quickly for the 64 cents barrier pushing at the 0.6405 area several times over the period of an hour however, with the end of London came slow selling for the run to the close in NYK and the market holding around the 0.6375 areas.
  • EUR: Lacklustre session through Asia with the market dipping from the opening just above the 1.0820 level to hold around the 1.0810 area for the most part until the grey hour where some stronger buying seemed to move in for the London opening to test the 1.0830 however, it struggled in the area unable to push through the 1.0835 level and with disappointing if expected UK and EU numbers the market dipped steadily through to the 1.0790 area, struggling with the level initially before pushing through and testing eventually to the 1.0755 area before finding some choppy trading and a steady move through into the NYK session pushing the 1.0800 level and a little bit of a short squeeze through to the 1.0845 level to make the high and fail, the market eventually dropping on the London close to the 1.0810 level and eventually break lower again testing to the 1.0760 to find the base and range in a slightly wider range to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Composite (APR P) A 22.4 | 39.4

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (APR P) A 45.6 | P 49.7

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Services (APR P) A 19.6 | P 38.5

JPY         Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (APR P) A 43.7 | P 44.8

NZD       Credit Card Spending YoY (MAR) A -8.2% | P 2.5%

EUR       German GfK Consumer Confidence (MAY) A -23.4 | C -1.7 | P 2.3

GBP        Central Government NCR (MAR) A 21.3b | P -2.5b

GBP        PSNB ex Banking Groups (MAR) A 3.1b | C 2.7B | P 0.8b

GBP        Public Finances (PSNCR) (MAR) A 7.2b | P 1.4b

GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing (MAR) A 2.3b | C 2.0b | P -0.4b

EUR       Markit Germany Services PMI (APR P) A 15.9 | C 28.1 | P 31.7

EUR       Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (APR P) A 34.4 | C 39.0 | P 45.4

EUR       Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (APR P) A 13.5 | C 25.9 | P 29.7

EUR       Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (APR P) A 33.6 | C 38.0 | P 44.5

EUR       Markit Eurozone Services PMI (APR P) A 11.7 | C 23.5 | P 26.4

GBP        Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (APR P) A 32.5 | C 42.0 | P 47.8

GBP        Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (APR P) A 12.9 | C 31 | P 36

GBP        Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (APR P) A 12.3 | C 29.0 | P 34.5

MXN      Bi-Weekly CPI (APR 15) A -0.72% | C -56% | P -0.78%

MXN      BI-Weekly CPI YoY (APR 15) A 2.08% | C 2.31% | P 2.79%

USD       Continuing Claims (APR 11) A 15976k | C 17271k | P 11976k

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (APR 18) A 4427k | C 4500k | P 5245k

USD       Markit US Composite PMI (APR P) A 27.4 | P 40.9

USD       Markit US Manufacturing PMI (APR P) A 36.9 | C 36 | P 48.5

USD       Markit US Services PMI (APR P) A 27.0 | C 31.3 | P 39.8

USD       New Home Sales MoM (MAR) A -15.4% | C -16.0% | P -4.4%

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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