Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.257 | EURUSD 1.08294 | AUDUSD 0.64636 | NZDUSD 0.60584 | USDCAD 1.40348 | USDCHF 0.97541 | GBPUSD 1.24303 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

 

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.08362 | 1.08182

USDJPY                107.336 | 107.193

GBPUSD               1.24367 | 1.24076

USDCHF               0.97696 | 0.97458

AUDUSD              0.64754 | 0.64349

NZDUSD               0.60506 | 0.59926

USDCAD               1.40674 | 1.40175

EURCHF               1.05637 | 1.0560

EURGBP               0.87200 | 0.87088

EURJPY                116.273 | 116.046

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: A light push through to the 1.2435 area before slipping back through to the opening area in a quiet move through into the Tokyo session the market then drifted from the opening 1.2425 level for a weak test through to the 1.2405 area with very little interest in GBP for the day. downside bids beginning to build in the 1.2350-00 areas and then likely to see continual congestion through to the 1.2200 area with some concentration around the 1.2250 level then increasing through the 1.2200 area before weak stops appear and further congestion to the 1.2150 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.2450 level with increasing offers through to the 1.2500 level and stronger offers likely to continue through the 1.2550 level and likely catching further heavy offers through to the 1.2600.
  • JPY: A very narrow range for the day with the market opening around the 107.25 level and a liquidity move through to just below the 107.20 level to make the low, the move through the Tokyo session saw the market holding around the opening level testing the downside once again before pushing lightly through the 107.30 area to stall below the 107.35 area before again holding the 107.25 area through to the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with weak stops on any dip through the 106.80 level with very limited congestion through to the 106.20 level and the market seeing only slightly stronger bids through to the 105.80 level with congestion likely to increase below that level. Topside offers light through to the 109.00 level with weak stops not figuring that much on any push above the 108.00 or 109.00 levels with resistance increasing on the move above the 109.00 level with stronger bids above 109.50-110.00
  • AUD: Opening on its highs around the 0.6470 area the market immediately dipped on liquidity problems through to the 0.6455 area and after a further gyration moved into the Tokyo session slipping lower through to the 0.6445 area to bounce off the level and return to the 0.6460 level however, while the move higher was fairly strong it was all to brief and the market quickly dipped to hold the 0.6435 area for the move through to the grey hour, downside bids light through to the 0.6250 area and congestion likely to start increasing through each sentimental level with stronger bids through to the 61 cents level before weak stops really start to appear, Topside offers stronger offers on any push through to the 65 cents level and weak stops likely to appear on a push through the 0.6520-30 area to target lighter congestion through to the 0.6570-80 level and stronger offers likely to increase through to the 66 cents level.
  • EUR: A very quiet range through the Asian session opening just below the 1.0830 level and continuing through to just before the grey hour before dipping through to the lows around the 1.0815, Downside bids through the 1.0760 area is likely to to the 1.0740 weak congestion from there stronger bids have possibly been building over the past few weeks with weak stops on a break through the 1.0690 areas and opening deeper moves. Topside offers through 1.0900 level and into the 1.0920 area have been building however, weak stops on a push through the level are likely to then see weakness for a short distance before stronger offers into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.

 

Overnight News

 

USD:

US Oil producers begin storing crude in strategic reserve – BBG

Oil slides after Crude ETF’s move into later dated contracts – BBG

AUD:

New South Wales Government may buy up spare housing in AUD500m stimulus plan – SMH

CNY:

Bank of China clients said to lose $1b on Oil bets – BBG

China Brokerage retracts estimate that real jobless level is 20%

GBP:

NZD:

Westpac expects RBNZ to cut key rate to 0.5% in November – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

0645      EUR       French Consumer Confidence A | C 83 | P 103

0700      EUR       Spanish Unemployment Rate A | C 15.6% | P 13.8%

1230      USD       Goods Trade Balance Adv A | P $-59.89b

1400      USD       CB Consumer Confidence A | C 88 | P 120

2245      NZD       Balance of Trade A | P NZD4.33b

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening unchanged the market move through the Asian session fairly quiet until midway through the Tokyo session and the market moving off the lows around the 1.2360 level and initially pushing to the 1.2375 area and then breaking through for a quick stab through the 1.2400 level, the move through into the London session again saw a quick move higher and the market moved firmly into London testing the 1.2450 level and stronger offers, the market struggled through into NYK with the level drifting a little testing to the 1.2420 area before running to the level again only to fail and dip back this time to the 1.2400 level for a slow run to the close.
  • JPY: Early push higher with BoJ rate decision and commentary doing very little to appease an expectant market, with the market testing lightly through the 107.60 level and struggling with the level through to the late part of the market before dropping back in steps through to the 107.30 level initially and then 107.20 and finally falling through to the 107.05 for the move into the London session, the market made an early morning recovery for the Tokyo close before drifting through the London session testing through to the low just below the 107.00 level and rising with a little more fervour to test to the 107.35 area before holding on a long run to the close around the 107.25 areas.
  • AUD: Early JPY selling helped the Oz move through the 64 cents level early in the session moving off the opening lows just above the 0.6380 area, the move into the Tokyo session saw the Oz continuing to push steadily through to the 0.6430 level before pausing for a few hours before moving up as the market pushed into the London session and testing the 0.6470 area and range from London all the way through to the close around the 0.6460 area in a tight and quiet run.
  • EUR: A 50 pip range basically encapsulated the Euro through the day with the market opening around the 1.0820 area slipping initially through to just above the 1.0810 level and then move through to the London session rising steadily to repeatedly bump the 1.0860 level and only once the London session finished did the market back away from the level for a quiet move to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

JPY         BoJ 10yr Yield target (APR 28) A 0.0% | C 0.0% | P 0.0%

JPY         BoJ Rate Decision (APR 27) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.1%

JPY         Unemployment (MAR) A 2.5% | C 2.5% | P 2.4%

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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