Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.868 | EURUSD 1.0820 | AUDUSD 0.64916 | NZDUSD 0.60612 | USDCAD 1.39982 | USDCHF 0.97491 | GBPUSD 1.24243 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

 

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.08547 | 1.08169

USDJPY                106.894 | 106.51

GBPUSD               1.24766 | 1.24201

USDCHF               0.97612 | 0.97229

AUDUSD              0.65360 | 0.64881

NZDUSD               0.61149 | 0.60551

USDCAD               1.40028 | 1.39429

EURCHF               1.05518 | 1.05484

EURGBP               0.87085 | 0.86948

EURJPY                115.724 | 115.511

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Gradually moving off the opening level just above the 1.2420 area and pushing into the Tokyo session with an increasing rise through to midsession testing towards the 1.2480 area before ranging around the 1.2470 level through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.2500 level with possible short term sellers only through to the 1.2550 level with the possibility of a break through this level opening a stronger move to above the 1.2600 level with possibly stronger offers on any lead to the 1.2650 area. Downside bids likely to be very light through the 1.2400 level and limited stops on a dip through the level through to 1.2350 with increasing bids slowly building in the 1.2300 level through to the 1.2250 area and possible stronger stops appearing.
  • JPY: A quiet run through to the Tokyo opening before dipping from the 106.90 level into the new session to fall through in a tight channelled move to the 106.50 level before finding sufficient bids to halt the slide for the move into the grey hour, downside bids light through the 106.00 level but increasing just below the level with stops likely to appear on a strong break through the 105.90-80 level for a quick test through to the 105.50 area, light congestion is likely to slow any move with increasing bids through to the 105.20-104.80 area. Topside offers light through to the 108.00 level with likely limited congestion before weak stops appear on a push through the 108.20 level opening another run to the 109.00 area.
  • AUD: Dipping a little towards the 0.6485 area before starting a slow steady rise through to the 0.6530 area before running into some limited resistance and eventually forcing the highs for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be congested around the sentimental 0.6550 level and likely to increase the closer to the 0.6600 area the market moves, with possible stronger offers still above that level, downside bids light through to the 0.6400 area with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6380 level and leaving patchy support through to the 0.6300 area and stronger stops below.
  • EUR: A slow rise off the opening lows to push gradually through to midsession in Tokyo and make the high around the 1.0850 level before ranging in a quiet range just below the level through into the grey hour, Downside bids through the 1.0760 area is likely to to the 1.0740 weak congestion from there stronger bids have possibly been building over the past few weeks with weak stops on a break through the 1.0690 areas and opening deeper moves. Topside offers through 1.0900 level and into the 1.0920 area have been building however, weak stops on a push through the level are likely to then see weakness for a short distance before stronger offers into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.

 

 

Overnight News

 

AUD:

Australia’s headline inflation accelerates to fastest rate since 2014 – BBG

Bank loan losses could top AUD35b – AFR

Australia stokes China tensions with call for virus origin probe – BBG

GBP:

UK won’t have key toll in place to lift lockdown until mid-May – BBG

USD:

API reports US Crude stockpiles rose 9.98m bbl last week – BBG

Fed funds drop may not guarantee tool tweaks – BBG

EUR:

Italy downgraded to BBB- by Fitch, outlook stable – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

AUD       Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% | C 2.0% | P 1.8%

AUD       Inflation Rate QoQ A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 0.7%

0900      EUR       Eurozone Consumer Confidence Final A | C -22.7 | P -11.6

0900      EUR       Eurozone Sentiment A | C 74.7 | P 94.5

0900      EUR       Industrial Sentiment A | C -25.7 | P -10.8

1030      EUR       Business Confidence A | P -7

1100      USD       MBA Mortgage Applications A | P -0.3%

1200      EUR       German Inflation Rate (P) YoY A | C 0.6% | P 1.4%

1200      EUR       German Inflation Rate (P) MoM A | C 0% | P 0.1%

1230      USD       GDP Growth Rate (A) QoQ A | C -4% | P 2.1%

1230      USD       Core PCE Prices (A) QoQ A | C 1.4% | P 1.3%

1230      USD       GDP Price Index (A) QoQ A | C 1.2% | P 1.4%

1230      USD       PCE Prices (A) QoQ A | P 1.4%

1400      USD       Pending Home Sales YoY A | P 9.4%

1430      USD       EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change A | P 4.776m

1430      USD       EIA Distillate Stocks Change A | C 3.75m | P 7.876m

1800      USD       Fed Interest Rate Decision A | C 0.25% | P 0.25%

1830      USD       Fed Press Conference

2350      JPY         Industrial Production (P) YoY A | P 5.7%

2350      JPY         Retail Sales A | C -4.7% | P 1.7%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A reasonably quiet session through Asian with the market opening around the 1.2420 area and dipping to the 1.2415 level in a quiet run to deep into Tokyo before a limited rise preceding a slow drift through the session through to the London opening testing to the 1.2405 area, talk of a move out of lockdown seemed to dominate some of the media and the Cable rising steadily through to the NYK session pushing through the 1.2500 level before stalling just short of the 1.2520 area for a drift back to the figure and a quick drop back to the 1.2450 level, so between the offbeat story that Scotland will put up the borders to limit the contact with the rest of the UK having us laughing in our armchairs senior advisors continue to advise not removing lockdown for the moment. The market eventually fell back to the opening levels to finish the day almost unchanged.
  • JPY: Opening around the 107.25 area and holding in a tight range through to the grey hour, saw the market drop off quickly into the London session, tumbling in the London session as strong USD selling moved through the market to send the USDJPY through to the 106.60 level even though Asia struggled with a 10 pip range, London never even looked at the 107.30 highs and struggled through into the NYK session eventually pushing off the 106.55 area to run steadily to the 106.90 areas for a quiet run to the close.
  • AUD: Drifting from the opening highs through the Asian session the market moved from the 0.6465 level to test the 0.6435 for the move into the grey hour pushing lightly back to the opening level, JPY strength saw the USD forced low and so the Oz rose in line to steadily push through the 65 cent level however, the fact that the carry trade is decidedly skinny means the correlation is becoming tenuous at best, the move through to the end of the session saw the oz moving around the 0.6500 level and unable to really push beyond the 0.6510 area.
  • EUR: Moved quietly through the Asian session with the market drifting away from the 1.0830 level to test into the London session making the low of the day just above the 1.0810 area, strong USD selling saw the Euro steadily rise through to the 1.0890 areas before holding through to the NYK session and dropping back just as quick as the market turned and falling back to the opening levels again before dropping for the move to the close and the 1.0820 area.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

EUR       French Consumer Confidence A 95 | C 83 | P 103

EUR       Spanish Unemployment Rate A 14.41% | C 15.6% | P 13.8%

USD       Goods Trade Balance Adv A -$64.22b | P $-59.89b

USD       CB Consumer Confidence A 86.9 | C 88 | P 120

NZD       Balance of Trade A 672m| P 531m

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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