Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.868 | EURUSD 1.0820 | AUDUSD 0.64916 | NZDUSD 0.60612 | USDCAD 1.39982 | USDCHF 0.97491 | GBPUSD 1.24243 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.08547 | 1.08169
USDJPY 106.894 | 106.51
GBPUSD 1.24766 | 1.24201
USDCHF 0.97612 | 0.97229
AUDUSD 0.65360 | 0.64881
NZDUSD 0.61149 | 0.60551
USDCAD 1.40028 | 1.39429
EURCHF 1.05518 | 1.05484
EURGBP 0.87085 | 0.86948
EURJPY 115.724 | 115.511
For Today
- GBP: Gradually moving off the opening level just above the 1.2420 area and pushing into the Tokyo session with an increasing rise through to midsession testing towards the 1.2480 area before ranging around the 1.2470 level through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.2500 level with possible short term sellers only through to the 1.2550 level with the possibility of a break through this level opening a stronger move to above the 1.2600 level with possibly stronger offers on any lead to the 1.2650 area. Downside bids likely to be very light through the 1.2400 level and limited stops on a dip through the level through to 1.2350 with increasing bids slowly building in the 1.2300 level through to the 1.2250 area and possible stronger stops appearing.
- JPY: A quiet run through to the Tokyo opening before dipping from the 106.90 level into the new session to fall through in a tight channelled move to the 106.50 level before finding sufficient bids to halt the slide for the move into the grey hour, downside bids light through the 106.00 level but increasing just below the level with stops likely to appear on a strong break through the 105.90-80 level for a quick test through to the 105.50 area, light congestion is likely to slow any move with increasing bids through to the 105.20-104.80 area. Topside offers light through to the 108.00 level with likely limited congestion before weak stops appear on a push through the 108.20 level opening another run to the 109.00 area.
- AUD: Dipping a little towards the 0.6485 area before starting a slow steady rise through to the 0.6530 area before running into some limited resistance and eventually forcing the highs for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be congested around the sentimental 0.6550 level and likely to increase the closer to the 0.6600 area the market moves, with possible stronger offers still above that level, downside bids light through to the 0.6400 area with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6380 level and leaving patchy support through to the 0.6300 area and stronger stops below.
- EUR: A slow rise off the opening lows to push gradually through to midsession in Tokyo and make the high around the 1.0850 level before ranging in a quiet range just below the level through into the grey hour, Downside bids through the 1.0760 area is likely to to the 1.0740 weak congestion from there stronger bids have possibly been building over the past few weeks with weak stops on a break through the 1.0690 areas and opening deeper moves. Topside offers through 1.0900 level and into the 1.0920 area have been building however, weak stops on a push through the level are likely to then see weakness for a short distance before stronger offers into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.
Overnight News
AUD:
Australia’s headline inflation accelerates to fastest rate since 2014 – BBG
Bank loan losses could top AUD35b – AFR
Australia stokes China tensions with call for virus origin probe – BBG
GBP:
UK won’t have key toll in place to lift lockdown until mid-May – BBG
USD:
API reports US Crude stockpiles rose 9.98m bbl last week – BBG
Fed funds drop may not guarantee tool tweaks – BBG
EUR:
Italy downgraded to BBB- by Fitch, outlook stable – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% | C 2.0% | P 1.8%
AUD Inflation Rate QoQ A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 0.7%
0900 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Final A | C -22.7 | P -11.6
0900 EUR Eurozone Sentiment A | C 74.7 | P 94.5
0900 EUR Industrial Sentiment A | C -25.7 | P -10.8
1030 EUR Business Confidence A | P -7
1100 USD MBA Mortgage Applications A | P -0.3%
1200 EUR German Inflation Rate (P) YoY A | C 0.6% | P 1.4%
1200 EUR German Inflation Rate (P) MoM A | C 0% | P 0.1%
1230 USD GDP Growth Rate (A) QoQ A | C -4% | P 2.1%
1230 USD Core PCE Prices (A) QoQ A | C 1.4% | P 1.3%
1230 USD GDP Price Index (A) QoQ A | C 1.2% | P 1.4%
1230 USD PCE Prices (A) QoQ A | P 1.4%
1400 USD Pending Home Sales YoY A | P 9.4%
1430 USD EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change A | P 4.776m
1430 USD EIA Distillate Stocks Change A | C 3.75m | P 7.876m
1800 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision A | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
1830 USD Fed Press Conference
2350 JPY Industrial Production (P) YoY A | P 5.7%
2350 JPY Retail Sales A | C -4.7% | P 1.7%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A reasonably quiet session through Asian with the market opening around the 1.2420 area and dipping to the 1.2415 level in a quiet run to deep into Tokyo before a limited rise preceding a slow drift through the session through to the London opening testing to the 1.2405 area, talk of a move out of lockdown seemed to dominate some of the media and the Cable rising steadily through to the NYK session pushing through the 1.2500 level before stalling just short of the 1.2520 area for a drift back to the figure and a quick drop back to the 1.2450 level, so between the offbeat story that Scotland will put up the borders to limit the contact with the rest of the UK having us laughing in our armchairs senior advisors continue to advise not removing lockdown for the moment. The market eventually fell back to the opening levels to finish the day almost unchanged.
- JPY: Opening around the 107.25 area and holding in a tight range through to the grey hour, saw the market drop off quickly into the London session, tumbling in the London session as strong USD selling moved through the market to send the USDJPY through to the 106.60 level even though Asia struggled with a 10 pip range, London never even looked at the 107.30 highs and struggled through into the NYK session eventually pushing off the 106.55 area to run steadily to the 106.90 areas for a quiet run to the close.
- AUD: Drifting from the opening highs through the Asian session the market moved from the 0.6465 level to test the 0.6435 for the move into the grey hour pushing lightly back to the opening level, JPY strength saw the USD forced low and so the Oz rose in line to steadily push through the 65 cent level however, the fact that the carry trade is decidedly skinny means the correlation is becoming tenuous at best, the move through to the end of the session saw the oz moving around the 0.6500 level and unable to really push beyond the 0.6510 area.
- EUR: Moved quietly through the Asian session with the market drifting away from the 1.0830 level to test into the London session making the low of the day just above the 1.0810 area, strong USD selling saw the Euro steadily rise through to the 1.0890 areas before holding through to the NYK session and dropping back just as quick as the market turned and falling back to the opening levels again before dropping for the move to the close and the 1.0820 area.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
EUR French Consumer Confidence A 95 | C 83 | P 103
EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate A 14.41% | C 15.6% | P 13.8%
USD Goods Trade Balance Adv A -$64.22b | P $-59.89b
USD CB Consumer Confidence A 86.9 | C 88 | P 120
NZD Balance of Trade A 672m| P 531m
Best Regards
Andy
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