Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.095 | EURUSD 1.08202 | AUDUSD 0.64152 | NZDUSD 0.59348 | USDCAD 1.41082 | USDCHF 0.97169 | GBPUSD 1.21052 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.08270 | 1.08099

USDJPY                107.282 | 107.053

GBPUSD               1.21155 | 1.20761

USDCHF               0.97224 | 0.97122

AUDUSD              0.64522 | 0.64117

NZDUSD               0.59591 | 0.59251

USDCAD               1.41131 | 1.40665

EURCHF               1.05160 | 1.05115

EURGBP               0.89582 | 0.89361

EURJPY                116.105 | 115.724

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening 20-25 pips lower the market drifted to test the 1.2075 area in early trading before recovering into the Tokyo opening to test the 1.2100 level however, the recovery was short lived with the early buyers forced out into the early part of Tokyo before a steady rise through to the 1.2115 level ensued and a quiet range through to the grey hour holding the figure level in quiet trading, Topside offers light through the 1.2150 area with some stronger offers on any move to the 1.2200 level however, weak stops on a break of the level opening a quick move through to the 1.2250 area and the 1.2300 becoming vulnerable to a test. Downside bids light through to the 1.2050 area and likely bids appearing through to the stronger 1.2000 level however, stronger is relative and a breakthrough opens a fresh opening through to the 1.1800 level and suspected stronger bids appearing.
  • JPY: Light buying from a slightly weaker opening saw the market pushing from the 107.10 level through to the 107.30 area into the Tokyo opening before drifting through the session to range around those opening levels through to the grey hour, Downside bids through to the 106.80 level with limited weak stops on a move through the level to open a test of the 106.50 area again, a push through leads to stronger bids appearing from the 106.30 area and likely to continue through to the 105.90-80 area with stops appearing and the market vulnerable to a larger fall through to the 105.00 area before stronger bids appear. Topside offers light through to the 107.70-108.00 level and some limited congestive offers appearing, a push through to the 108.20 area has limited effect with some weak stops likely to be absorbed through to the 108.40 level and stronger offers thereafter through to the 108.80-109.00 area.
    AUD: A slow drift to the low, just above the 0.6410 level before putting in a long drawn out push through to the 0.6450 area into midsession before drifting through to the 0.6440 area into the grey hour in quiet trading for the Oz, Topside offers light through to 0.6480 area before increasing in size through the 65 cents level however, the congestion is likely to increase through to the 0.6550 area and a struggle to break through to the 66 cents area where stronger offers are suspected, downside bids likely to appear on any test of the 64 cents level and through to the 0.6380 level where limited weak stops are likely to appear and quickly be absorbed by the congestive bids around the 0.6350 area and through to stronger bids into 63 cents.
  • EUR: Choppy opening saw a dip to the 1.0810 level before recovering the 1.0820 area and a slow rise through the session to push above the 1.0825 area before grinding to a slow meander to the grey hour able to hold above the 1.0820 level and nothing else. Downside bids around the 1.0800 level light with increasing strength through to the 1.0750 area with weak stops possibly on a push through the 1.0740 level however, bids are likely to continue strongly through to the 1.0680 level before stronger stops appear and longer-term weakness kicks in. Topside offers light through to the 1.0900 level before stronger offers appear with light congestion to those offers, a break of the 1.0920 area could see limited stops appearing and a further test through to the 1.0950 level and stronger offers starting on any test above the 1.0980 levels.

 

Overnight News

 

CNY:

Commerce minister Zhong Shan: Coronavirus has caused a huge shock to China’s economic and social developments – BBG

China trade faces unprecedented challenges this year – BBG

Zhong Shan: Will boost domestic demand and promote consumption – BBG

Zhong Shan: Foreign demand has significantly slumped due to virus outbreak, trade faces unprecedented challenges – BBG

Zhong Shan: Our companies are having an extremely difficult time due to virus outbreak – BBG

CHF:

SNB is intervening heavily to shield economy, Meachler says – BBG

USD/CNY:

China is responsible for take down of US economic adviser – ABC

Aide accuses China of using air travellers to seed virus – BBG

Americans give made in China the cold shoulder; Poll shows [- BBG

NZD:

ANZ Bank now sees RBNZ raising QE program to NZD90b in August – ANZ

GBP:

Ministers move coronavirus teams back to no deal Brexit planning – Times

BoE examining negative rates, Haldane – TEL

USD:

Powell warns US recovery could stretch through end of 2021 – BBG

FED warns of significant hit to asset prices if crisis grows – BBG

EUR:

MiFID rollback weighed by lawmakers aiming to jump start economy – BBG

AUD/CNY:

China dangles carrot over free trade deal – AFR

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Services NZ PSI  A 25.9 | P 37.3

JPY         GDP Growth Annualized (P) A -3.4% | C -4.6% | P -7.1% | R -7.3%

JPY         GDP Growth Rate QoQ (P) A -0.9% | C -1.2% | P -1.8% | R -1.9%

CNY       House Price Index YoY A 5.1% | P 5.3%

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index MoM A -4.2% | P -0.5% | R -0.7%

1400      USD       NAHB Housing Market Index A | C 33 | P 30

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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