Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107. | EURUSD 1.09 | AUDUSD 0.65 | NZDUSD 0.60 | USDCAD 1.39 | USDCHF 0.97 | GBPUSD 1.2 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.09467 | 1.09191

USDJPY                107.985 | 107.61

GBPUSD               1.22758 | 1.22419

USDCHF               0.97157 | 0.96979

AUDUSD              0.65607 | 0.65255

NZDUSD               0.61157 | 0.60633

USDCAD               1.39607 | 1.39178

EURCHF               1.06143 | 1.0610

EURGBP               0.89187 | 0.89138

EURJPY                118.082 | 117.589

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: A slow rise from the 1.2245 area opening to push slowly through to the 1.2275 areas only to range quietly through to the grey hours just above the 1.2260 level. Topside offers a little weaker with the bulk of congestion around the 1.2300 level and while there may be some weak stops congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.2350 level in some form with stronger offers then creeping in just above and increasing on any push to the 1.2400 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2200 level with support beginning to build after the recent move higher, weak stops likely on a dip through the level and light bids through the 1.2150 level and then increasing on any move to the 1.2100 area.
  • JPY: Slow rise from the opening just below the 107.70 level pushing steadily through to the high 107.90’s before running into some light resistance and the cross JPY market unwilling to force USDJPY any further, having attained the high the market drifted back before settling into the 107.80 level to range to the grey hour, , Downside bids through to the 106.80 level with limited weak stops on a move through the level to open a test of the 106.50 area again, a push through leads to stronger bids appearing from the 106.30 area and likely to continue through to the 105.90-80 area with stops appearing and the market vulnerable to a larger fall through to the 105.00 area before stronger bids appear. Topside offers through to the 107.70-108.00 level and some limited congestive offers appearing, a push through to the 108.20 area has limited effect with some weak stops likely to be absorbed through to the 108.40 level and stronger offers thereafter through to the 108.80-109.00 area.
  • AUD: A light dip through the 0.t6530 opening areas to make the low around the 0.6525 area the market then began to rise on the move into the Tokyo session testing through to the 0.6560 level before running into some resistance and ranging around the 0.6550 for several hours to the grey hour, downside bids likely to appear on any test of the 64 cents level and through to the 0.6380 level where limited weak stops are likely to appear and quickly be absorbed by the congestive bids around the 0.6350 area and through to stronger bids into 63 cents. Topside offers likely to increase above the highs of the day and through to the 66 cents level with possibly strong stops on a move through the 0.6620 area to open up the topside to a stronger long-term push.
  • EUR: Rising from the early lows the Euro slowly pushed through to the 1.0946 area and ranged in the area for several hours into the grey hour, Topside offers increasing on any attempt to push the 1.0980 level through to 1.1020 area and possible option related stops appearing to see a quick move through to the 1.1050 area. Downside bids likely to be light through the 1.0900 level with weak stops quickly appearing and opening the market to a quick test of the 1.0850 level and limited congestion until closer to the 1.0800-1.0780 level and further stops.

 

 

 

Overnight News

 

CNY/AUD:

China may tighten Australian coal imports amid tensions – BBG

AUD:

Australian preliminary Retail Sales for April fall 17.9%

GBP/EUR:

Brexit trade talks have turned sour, as UK attacks low quality deal on offer – SKY

Brexit talks sour with UK slamming EU’s unworthy offer – BBG

USD/CNY:

Trump: I feel differently now about that deal than I did 3 months ago, on China trade deal – FOX

Senate may vote on bill that could delist Chinese companies from US Stock exchanges – DJ

JPY:

BoJ Looks to demonstrate agile stance with emergency meeting – BBG

NZD:

RBNZ’s Orr says strategy is to keep yield curve low, flat

Orr: Prepared to go to negative rate but a lot later

Orr: RBNZ doesn’t want to go to negative rate at this point

CNY:

Millions of newly jobless in China pose a looming threat to Xi – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Core Machinery Orders YoY (MAR) A -0.7% | C -9.5% | P -2.4%

JPY         Core Machinery Orders MoM (MAR) A -0.4% | C -7.1% | P 2.3%

AUD       Westpac Leading Index MoM A -1.5% | P -0.7%

CNY       PBoC Loan Prime Rate A 3.85% | P 3.85%

0600      GBP        Core CPI YoY (APR) A | C 1.5% | P 1.6%

0600      GBP        Core CPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.2% | P 0.1%

0600      GBP        Core PPI YoY (APR) A | C -0.1% | P 0.3%

0600      GBP        Core PPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.6% | P 0.9%

0600      GBP        RPI MoM (APR) A | P 0.2%

0600      GBP        RPI YoY (APR) A | P 2.7%

0600      GBP        CPI YoY (APR) A | C 0.9% | P 1.5%

0600      GBP        CPI MoM (APR) A | C -0.1% | P 0.0%

0600      GBP        PPI Input MoM A | C -4.0% | P -3.6%

0600      EUR       German PPI MoM (APR) A | C -0.7% | P -0.8%

0600      EUR       German PPI YoY (APR) A | C -0.8% | P -0.8%

0800      EUR       Eurozone Current Account (MAR) A | P 40.2b

0900      EUR       Eurozone CPI YoY (APR) A | C 0.4% | P 0.7%

0900      EUR       Eurozone CPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.3% | P 0.5%

1230      CAD       Core CPI MoM (APR) A | P 0.7%

1230      CAD       Wholesale sales MoM (MAR) A | C -3.8% | P 0.7%

1330      GBP        BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks

1430      USD       Crude Oil Inventories A | C 1.151m | P -0.745m

1800      USD       FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet run from the opening into early morning in Tokyo holding around the 1.2200 level before pushing quickly through to 1.2220 level for the Asian high only to slowly drift through into the end of the Asian session testing the 1.2185 level, grey hour buying turned the market back to the figure level for the London opening, counter balance of a strong employment number saw the Claimant count overlooked and Cable quickly rise through to the 1.2250 level before running into congestion and then a reasonable range around the level through to late into the NYK session before late buyers took the Cable to its high testing the 1.2295 level before dropping steadily back to test the 1.2235 level before running to the close.
  • JPY: A slow rise through the Asian session with cross selling of the JPY dominating the USDJPY, opening around the 107.30 level and making the lows just below before moving through the Tokyo opening pashing through to the 107.45 level and ranging in that area through to the London session before breaking out and steadily pushing in a tight channelled rise to make the high for the day just short of the 108.10 level into the NYK opening, a pause and range around the 107.90 area before the end of the London session allowed the market to drift through to the close and back to the 107.70 areas.
  • AUD: A light drift from a high opening saw the market eventually settle to range around the 0.6520 area through into the Tokyo session before finding AUDJPY buyers moving in and the market rallying through to the 0.6555 area before slowly losing all the gains to make the days lows around the 0.6510 area for the run to the grey hour, London sellers were quickly turned and the market having tested the 0.6510 area gain saw the market quickly push the 0.6560 area for the first time before slowly ranging in a steadily drifting market initially ranging around the 0.6550 level and then 0.6540 for the move into the NYK session where the buyers reappeared and the market slowly moved through to late in the session testing above the 0.6580 with limited success and dropping back for the close to finish the day only just in the positive.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.0920 level the market drifted through the Asian session with one limited push towards the 1.0925 area to make the Asian high the market tested the 1.0900 level for the low of the day, London were quick buyers and the market rallied to above the 1.0940 area in early trading before holding around the level for a couple of hours and running for a second time this time posting the high for the day around the 1.0975 area after a brief pause in the 1.0950 area, the move into NYK saw the market again resting in the 1.0950-40 area and then ranging around the levels through to late in the session dipping to almost unchanged for the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

AUD       RBA Meeting Minutes

JPY         Industrial Production YoY (F) A -5.2% | C -5.2% | P -5.7%

GBP        Employment Change 3M/3M MoM MAR A 211k| C 50k | P 172k

GBP        Average Earnings excl. Bonus MAR A 2.7% | C 2.6% | P 2.9%

GBP        Average Earnings incl. Bonus MAR A 2.4% | C 2.6% | P 2.8%

GBP        Claimant Count Change A 856.5k | C 676.5k | P 12.2k

GBP        Unemployment rate A 3.9% | C 4.4% | P 4.0%

EUR       Spain Balance of Trade A -2.04b | P -2.12b

EUR       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index A 46 | P 25.2

EUR       German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index A 51 | C 32 | P 28.2

EUR       German ZEW Current Conditions A -93.5 | C -88 | P -91.5

USD       Building Permits MoM A -20.8% | P -7%

USD       Housing Starts MoM A -30.2%| C -22.3%

USD       Fed Chair Powell Testimony

USD       Fed Rosengren Speech

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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