Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.543 | EURUSD 1.09792 | AUDUSD 0.65979 | NZDUSD 0.61487 | USDCAD 1.38994 | USDCHF 0.96482 | GBPUSD 1.22377 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.09841 | 1.09577

USDJPY                107.754 | 107.502

GBPUSD               1.22438 | 1.21933

USDCHF               0.96661 | 0.96453

AUDUSD              0.65999 | 0.65491

NZDUSD               0.61535 | 0.61178

USDCAD               1.39402 | 1.39015

EURCHF               1.05952 | 1.0592

EURGBP               0.89870 | 0.89701

EURJPY                118.207 | 117.942

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Holding its value through the early part of the session the move towards Tokyo session not challenging the early attempt towards the 1.2250 level however, once Tokyo moved in the market drifted a little then dropped quickly through to the 1.2220 level before renewing the slower drift testing through to the 1.2200 area making a low just below the 1.2195 area and ranging around the 1.2200 level. Topside offers a little weaker with the bulk of congestion around the 1.2300 level and while there may be some weak stops congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.2350 level in some form with stronger offers then creeping in just above and increasing on any push to the 1.2400 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2150 level with support beginning to build after the recent move higher, weakness through the 1.2150 level and then increasing on any move to the 1.2100 area. With possible strong stops just below.
  • JPY: Slow rise from the opening lows pushing from the 107.50 areas through to the 107.70 level into the Tokyo opening, a slight dip before starting a rise through to the high for the session just through the 107.75 level, having made the highs the market drifted from the high to hold around the 107.60 area through to the grey hour, Downside bids through to the 106.80 level with limited weak stops on a move through the level to open a test of the 106.50 area again, a push through leads to stronger bids appearing from the 106.30 area and likely to continue through to the 105.90-80 area with stops appearing and the market vulnerable to a larger fall through to the 105.00 area before stronger bids appear. Topside offers through to the 107.70-108.00 level and some limited congestive offers appearing, a push through to the 108.20 area has limited effect with some weak stops likely to be absorbed through to the 108.40 level and stronger offers thereafter through to the 108.80-109.00 area.
  • AUD: Opening on its highs and like some of the other pairs losing ground to the USD, drifting slowly into the Tokyo session the market dropped at an increasing rate rom the 66 cent level testing through to the 0.6550 level before finding sufficient buyers to turn the market and hold around the 0.6560 level through into the grey hour, downside bids likely to appear on any test of the 64 cents level and through to the 0.6380 level where limited weak stops are likely to appear and quickly be absorbed by the congestive bids around the 0.6350 area and through to stronger bids into 63 cents. Topside offers through the 0.6600 level again and likely extending to the 0.6620 and possibly weak stops appearing to open a move through to the 0.6640-60 sentimental area with increasing offers on a push through to the 0.6680 levels.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.0980 area and flatlining through into the Tokyo morning before dropping off from the level steadily drifting through to the 1.0960 area in a limited market and running through to the grey hour holding that area. Topside offers increasing on any attempt to push the 1.0980 level through to 1.1020 area and possible option related stops appearing to see a quick move through to the 1.1050 area. Downside bids likely to be light through the 1.0900 level with weak stops quickly appearing and opening the market to a quick test of the 1.0850 level and limited congestion until closer to the 1.0800-1.0780 level and further stops.

 

 

Overnight News

 

AUD/CNY:

China may boost Non-Australia Iron ore imports amid tensions – BI

China changes Iron ore inspection rules in new trade threat – AFR

EUR:

Lufthansa confirms in advanced talks for up to EU9b in state aid – BBG

NZD:

RBNZ Increases pressure on banks to lower mortgage lending rates – BBG

USD/CNY:

White House report blasts Chinese malign activities – US News

Senate passes bill to delist Chinese companies from exchanges – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

AUD       Manufacturing PMI A 42.8 | P 44.1

AUD       Services PMI A 25.5 | P 19.5

JPY         Exports YoY (APR) A -21.9% | C -22.7% | P -11.7%

JPY         Trade Balance (APR) A -930.4b | C -560.0b | P 5.4b

JPY         Services PMI (MAY) A 25.3 | P 21.5

JPY         Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 38.4 | P 41.9

AUD       RBA Gov. Lowe speaks

0715      EUR       French Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 36.1 | P 31.5

0715      EUR       French Services PMI (MAY) A | C 27.8 | P 10.2

0730      EUR       German Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 39.2 | P 34.5

0730      EUR       German Services PMI (MAY) A | 26.6 | P 16.2

0800      EUR       Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 38 | P 33.4

0800      EUR       Eurozone Services PMI (MAY) A | C 25 | P 12

0830      GBP        Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | P 32.6

0830      GBP        Services PMI (MAY) A | P 13.4

1000      GBP        CBI Industrial Trends Orders (MAY) A | C -59 | P -56

1230      USD       Continuing jobless claims A | C 24,765k | P 22,833k

1230      USD       Initial Jobless Claims A | C 2400k | P 2981k

1345      USD       Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 38.0 | P 36.1

1345      USD       Service  PMI (MAY) A | C 30 | P 36.7

1400      USD       Existing Home sales MoM (APR) A | C -18.9% | P -8.5%

1400      USD       Existing Home sales (APR) A | C 4.30m | P 5.27m

1400      USD       FOMC Member Williams Speaks

1400      USD       US Leading Index MoM (APR) A | C -5.5% | P -6.7%

1700      USD       FOMC Member Clarida Speaks

1830      USD       Fed Chair Powell Speaks

1830      USD       FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

2245      USD       Retail Sales QoQ Q1 A | P 0.7%

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A reasonable range through the day but generally contained around the 1.2250 level for the bulk of the day, rising from the opening just below 1.2250 and steadily rising through to the 1.2275 area before drifting and holding into the London session around the 1.2260 area, London were quick sellers and the market dropped initially to the opening area around the 1.2240 area and then slowly pushed through to the 1.2225 level to form a base for the day, rising through midmorning to recapture the 1.2260 areas and ranging just above the 1.2250 into the NYK session the market rushed to its highs to test the 1.2290 area again before heading to the London close and a quick drop once London left the building testing quickly to the base and running quietly through to the close around the 1.2230 area.
  • JPY: Early JPY selling and the USDJPY forced through into early morning in Tokyo testing the 108.00 area only to reject the level and drop quickly back to the opening levels around the 107.70 area and a slow range through to the London opening, another round of selling saw the market pushing to the 107.60 level and then held through to the NYK session before the market fell through to the 107.40 level finally making the low of the day just before the London close testing the 107.35 area and recovering after the close to push back to the mid 107.50’s for a quiet range to the close of the day.
  • AUD: A quiet move through the early part of the session dipping to the lows around the 0.6525 level before rallying through into Tokyo pushing through to the 0.6860 level before drifting through into the London session, London were light sellers testing through towards the lows again however, midmorning started to see stronger buying moving through and pushing in a tight channel deep into the NYK session to test the 0.6615 level before dropping back from the high quickly to the 0.6585 area to struggle to the close to recapture the highs.
  • EUR: A slow steady rise through the early part of Tokyo took the market away from the opening lows around the 1.0920 level to test through the 1.0940 level and then ranging tightly through to the grey hour, limited rise on the opening in London, this saw the market testing the 1.0960 level and range around the 1.0950 level through to NYK before the USD sellers moved in and the Euro pushed steadily through towards the 1.1000 level before running out of steam and dropping back quickly on the move to the London close testing the 1.0970 level and then ranging around the 1.0980 area to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

JPY         Core Machinery Orders YoY (MAR) A -0.7% | C -9.5% | P -2.4%

JPY         Core Machinery Orders MoM (MAR) A -0.4% | C -7.1% | P 2.3%

AUD       Westpac Leading Index MoM A -1.5% | P -0.7%

CNY       PBoC Loan Prime Rate A 3.85% | P 3.85%

GBP        Core CPI YoY (APR) A 1.4% | C 1.5% | P 1.6%

GBP        Core CPI MoM (APR) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%

GBP        Core RPI MoM (APR) A 0.0% | P 0.2%

GBP        Core RPI YoY (APR) A 1.6% | P 2.7%

GBP        CPI YoY (APR) A 0.8% | C 0.9% | P 1.5%

GBP        CPI MoM (APR) A -0.2% | C -0.1% | P 0.0%

GBP        PPI Input MoM A -5.1% | C -4.0% | P -3.6% | R -3.8%

EUR       Eurozone Current Account (MAR) A 27.4b | P 40.2b

EUR       Eurozone CPI YoY (APR) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P 0.7%

EUR       Eurozone CPI MoM (APR) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%

CAD       Core CPI MoM (APR) A -0.4% | P 0.7%

CAD       Wholesale sales MoM (MAR) A -2.2% | C -3.8% | P 0.7%

GBP        BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A -4.983m | C 1.151m | P -0.745m

USD       FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.