Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.714 | EURUSD 1.08973 | AUDUSD 0.65457 | NZDUSD 0.61008 | USDCAD 1.39821 | USDCHF 0.97159 | GBPUSD 1.21899 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09216 | 1.08926
USDJPY 107.922 | 107.683
GBPUSD 1.22223 | 1.21845
USDCHF 0.97247 | 0.97027
AUDUSD 0.65760 | 0.65386
NZDUSD 0.61325 | 0.60951
USDCAD 1.39850 | 1.39398
EURCHF 1.05980 | 1.05842
EURGBP 0.89379 | 0.89287
EURJPY 117.783 | 117.35
For Today
- GBP: Moving through the early part of the session saw the market holding quietly around the 1.2190 area however, once Tokyo stepped in the buyers appeared steadily for a quiet move through to test above the 1.2220 level before drifting a little and falling back into the 1.2205-15 area for a long run to the grey hour, , Topside offers a little weaker with the bulk of congestion around the 1.2300 level and while there may be some weak stops congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.2350 level in some form with stronger offers then creeping in just above and increasing on any push to the 1.2400 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2150 level with support beginning to build after the recent move higher, weakness through the 1.2150 level and then increasing on any move to the 1.2100 area. With possible strong stops just below.
- JPY: Opening around the 107.70 area the market slowly moved through to the Tokyo session holding quietly before dipping a little lower testing through the 107.70 area before bouncing off the low and pushing through into the early morning period quickly testing through in steps to the 107.85 area before pushing to the 107.90 area before drifting a little through to the low 107.80’s for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids through to the 106.80 level with limited weak stops on a move through the level to open a test of the 106.50 area again, a push through leads to stronger bids appearing from the 106.30 area and likely to continue through to the 105.90-80 area with stops appearing and the market vulnerable to a larger fall through to the 105.00 area before stronger bids appear. Topside offers through to the 107.70-108.00 level and some limited congestive offers appearing, a push through to the 108.20 area has limited effect with some weak stops likely to be absorbed through to the 108.40 level and stronger offers thereafter through to the 108.80-109.00 area.
- AUD: Similar pattern from the opening with a minor dip into early Tokyo testing below the 0.6540 level before steadily rising through to the 0.6550 area to pause then run steadily through to the 0.6575 level before meeting offers and drifting back to the 0.6560 area, a second run foundered before drifting just off the highs for the grey hour, downside bids likely to appear on any test of the 64 cents level and through to the 0.6380 level where limited weak stops are likely to appear and quickly be absorbed by the congestive bids around the 0.6350 area and through to stronger bids into 63 cents. Topside offers through the 0.6600 level again and likely extending to the 0.6620 and possibly weak stops appearing to open a move through to the 0.6640-60 sentimental area with increasing offers on a push through to the 0.6680 levels.
- EUR: A slow rise off the early lows just below the 1.0895 area saw the Euro pushing initially through to the 1.0900 level before pausing for a short period then running again to the 1.0910 level and a long drawn out holding patter just below 1.0915 before running for the last time to the 1.0920 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers increasing on any attempt to push the 1.0980 level through to 1.1020 area and possible option related stops appearing to see a quick move through to the 1.1050 area. Downside bids likely to be light through the 1.0900 level with weak stops quickly appearing and opening the market to a quick test of the 1.0850 level and limited congestion until closer to the 1.0800-1.0780 level and further stops.
Overnight News
INR/CNY:
Armies of India and China appear heading towards biggest face off after Doklam – TOI
EUR/GBP:
Time running out for Brexit deal by end 2020 – Germanys Roth – BBG
Roth: Not sure how Brexit deal can be reached by end of 2020 – BBG
Roth: Urgently need tangible progress on Brexit talks – BBG
Roth: No signs UK will seek Brexit talks extension – BBG
EUR:
ECB’s Villeroy: More stimulus is probably on the way – BBG
Villeroy: ECB is clearly prepared to exceed its inflation goal – BBG
Villeroy: We won’t allow unwarranted rate hikes in some nations – BBG
Villeroy: Capital key on PEPP is an uncalled-for restraint – BBG
Villeroy: ECB shouldn’t rule out fed style main street lending – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD Balance of Trade MoM (APR) A 1267m | P 672m | R 722m
NZD Balance of Trade YoY (APR) A -2500m | -3460m | R -3400m
JPY All Industry Activity Index A -3.8% | P -0.6%
0500 JPY BoJ Core CPI YoY A | P 0.1%
0600 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (JUN) A | C -18.3 | P -23.4
0630 CHF Employment Level Q1 A | P 5.130m
1245 EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
1300 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. YoY (MAR) A | C 3.3 | P 3.5%
1400 USD Consumer Confidence (MAY) A | C 88 | P 86.9
1400 USD New Home Sales (APR) A | C 490k | P 627k
1400 USD New Home Sales MoM (APR) A | C -21.9% | P -15.4%
1700 USD FOMC Member Kashkan Speaks
2100 CAD BoC Council Member Wilkins speaks
2100 CAD BoC Gov. Poloz Speaks
2100 NZD RBNZ Financial stability report
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Bank holidays in the UK and US impacted the day as you’d expect with a tight range overall, opening a touch higher the market moved off the opening 1.2170 level and closed the small gap on the charts reasonably quickly before heading into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 1.2190 level before drifting through the balance of the session into London ranging around the 1.2180 area, early London saw light selling through to make the lows for the day around the 1.2165 area before bouncing and running back to the 1.2180 level and eventually heading into the NYK session pushing back to the highs, slow buying through to the end of the London session saw the high of the day just through the 1.2200 level before quietly moving to the close hanging onto the 1.2190 area.
- JPY: A little choppy on the move into the Tokyo period with the market opening around the 107.60 level quickly testing the 107.55 area to bounce through to the 107.70 level and pausing for the opening before heading to just above the 107.75 area for the highs of the day, the rest of the day really spent the day holding around the 107.70 level in very quiet trading with the range closing down to tics towards the end.
- AUD: Early Oz dipped to the 0.6530 area before starting a slow rise to the high of the day into early Tokyo testing the 0.6550 level before selling off for the official opening through the 0.6530 area, the market ranged quietly through into the London session with the opening creating the low around the 0.6520 level and then pushing back to the 0.6540 area with a tight range through the bulk of the day between the 0.6540-50 area.
- EUR: Opening just below the 1.0900 level the market edged higher in early Tokyo towards the 1.0910 level before starting a slow steady drift through to the 1.0890 area and holding through to the London session and bank holiday markets, Europeans sold the market from the London opening through to the 1.0870 area before the buyers appeared and the market slowly regained the losses through to the NYK session and light push through to the 1.0915 level before dropping back to a long run to the close holding the 1.0895 area.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
JPY Leading Index A 84.7 | C 83.8 | P 91.7
EUR German GDP YoY Q1 A -1.9% | C -1.9% | P -1.9% | R 0.2%
EUR German IFO Business Climate Index (MAY) A 79.5 | C 78.3 | P 74.3 | R 74.2
CAD BoC Gov. Poloz Speech
Best Regards
Andy
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