Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.72 | EURUSD 1.10091 | AUDUSD 0.6624 | NZDUSD 0.61739 | USDCAD 1.37525 | USDCHF 0.96819 | GBPUSD 1.22611 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.10355 | 1.10047
USDJPY 107.910 | 107.691
GBPUSD 1.22761 | 1.22493
USDCHF 0.96872 | 0.96771
AUDUSD 0.66361 | 0.65886
NZDUSD 0.61921 | 0.6174
USDCAD 1.37811 | 1.37355
EURCHF 1.06734 | 1.06545
EURGBP 0.89880 | 0.89781
EURJPY 118.939 | 118.555
For Today
- GBP: Another quiet Asian session with a slow rise from the opening around the 1.2260 level to push lightly above the 1.2275 area deep into the Tokyo session before starting a slow drift through to the 1.2250 lows for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.2300 area with weakness continuing through to the 1.2350 level before finding stronger offers starting to move in and increasing through to the 1.2400 levels. Downside bids light through to the 1.2210 area before bids thicken and are likely to see weak stops appearing on any dips through and open to the 1.2150 area before stronger bids again start to appear.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 107.70 area dipping lightly through in early trading and then starting a slow push through to the 107.75 level for the movement into the Tokyo session, steady buying in the new session saw the market testing the 107.90 level and after a second attempt fell back to the 107.80 areas for the move through to the grey hour ranging around the 107.80 level. Downside bids through to the 106.80 level with limited weak stops on a move through the level to open a test of the 106.50 area again, a push through leads to stronger bids appearing from the 106.30 area and likely to continue through to the 105.90-80 area with stops appearing and the market vulnerable to a larger fall through to the 105.00 area before stronger bids appear. Topside offers through to the 107.70-108.00 level and some limited congestive offers appearing, a push through to the 108.20 area has limited effect with some weak stops likely to be absorbed through to the 108.40 level and stronger offers thereafter through to the 108.80-109.00 area.
- AUD: A limited session with light drift through to the Tokyo session before finding limited buyers taking several hours to move from the opening level to the 0.6635 area before drifting back again for a steady decline through to test the 66 cents level for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be strong from the 0.6680 area through to the 67 cents level, weak stops and breakout stops likely to be positioned in quick succession and opening a quick move through to the 0.6750 level with congestive offers likely to limit some movement however, there is a possibility of the market squeezing through and aiming for the 68 cents area before running out of steam, downside bids light through the 66 cents level with weak stops likely to open up the market to a quick reversal to the 65 Cents level before finding stronger bids then appearing and limited stops through then to the 0.6450 level and better congestion.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1005 area the market saw a light rise through into the Tokyo session to push through to the 1.1035 area before starting a slow drift from midsession to test through to the opening level for the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.1040-60 level likely to be a strong point with limited weakness through the level and stronger offers likely to appear on any approach to the 1.1100 area however, with the SNB likely to continue to be active in weakening the CHF against the Euro the current disparity of the Euro is likely to continue. A push through the 1.1120 level is likely to see strong stops appearing before again running to the sentimental 50 area. Downside bids light through to the 1.0950 area and even here its not likely to appreciably increase and the 1.0920-1.0880 level being possibly the stronger point and well supported.
Overnight News
AUD:
RBA’s Lowe: Possible downturn won’t be as severe as earlier through – RTRs
Lowe: Strong demand for Australian Govt. Debt – RTR’s
Lowe: Government has ability to borrow more and to find projects to invest in – RTR’s
Lowe: Negative interest rates are extraordinarily unlikely – RTR’s
Lowe: Negative rates come with a cost to financial system – RTR’s
Lowe: Don’t think negative rates work – RTR’s
Lowe: If we had to do more QE, could purchase more Govt. Bonds – RTR’s
Lowe: At moment do not see need to do any more QE – RTR’s
Lowe: Banks have only borrowed AUD5b from RBSA under loan scheme – RTR’s
Lowe: Governments must borrow from markets and not from Central Banks – RTR’s
Lowe: Still looking at depressing scenario of high unemployment and low inflation – RTR’s
NZD:
RBNZ to push ahead with Bank Capital plans from next year – BBG
CNY:
China’s US embassy warns of countermeasures for Hong Kong meddling – BBG
EUR/GBP:
Step up your no deal Brexit plans; EU tells banks in Britain – RTR’s
USD:
FED Catalogues devastation wrought by pandemic on US economy – BBG
Oil extends losses after surplus jump in US crude stockpiles
USD/CNY/HKD:
US say’s Hong Kong no longer has high degree of autonomy
US says Hong Kong autonomy is gone, sowing China trade doubt – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD ANZ Business confidence (MAY) A -41.8 | P -66.6
AUD Private New Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1) A -1.6% | C -2.6% | P -2.8%
0600 CHF Trade Balance (APR) A | P 4.020b
0700 EUR Spanish CPI YoY A | P -0.7%
0900 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (APR) A | P 5.21b
1000 EUR France Jobseekers Total A | P 3,488.6k
1200 EUR German CPI MoM (MAY) A | C -0.1% | P 0.4%
1230 USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (APR) A | C -14.0% | P -0.6%
1230 USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (APR) A | C -19.0% | P -15.3%
1230 USD GDP QoQ (Q1) A | C -4.8% | P -4.8%
1230 USD GDP QoQ (Q1) A | C 1.4% | P 1.4%
1230 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 2,100k | P 2,438k
1230 USD Jobless Claims A | P 3,042k
1230 CAD Current Account (Q1) A | C -10.0b | P -8.8b
1400 USD Pending Home Sales MoM (APR) A | C -15.0% | P -28.8%
1500 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C 1,944m | P -4.983m
1500 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet drift through the Asian session dipping from the opening high around the 1.2335 area and slipping through the 1.2315 area to hold quietly through to the London session, early London sold the market slowly through to the 1.2280 area for the early lows before rallying sharply as the Cable was dragged along with a resurgent Euro testing through to the 1.2350 area before dipping back to the opening levels, the move through to the NYK session saw the Cable under pressure as commentary on the impact of a Brexit being negligible at best given the circumstances, Cable fell through to the 1.2260 level on the initial move and then after a brief rally slipped again trading through to the 1.2205 area before finding stronger support and a steady rise through to the close around the 1.2260 area.
- JPY: Asia saw a tight range with the market opening around the 107.55 areas slipping through to the Tokyo session drifting to the days lows testing the 107.35 level only to recover quickly to the 107.60 area defining the range through into the London session, a quick rally through to the 107.60 saw a pause and then a further steady push through to the 107.95 level for the opening in NYK, NYK sold the market back to the 107.70 are and then ranged around the level until the close.
- AUD: A very quiet session through Asia with the Oz ranging around the 0.6630-45 area with the market spending most of the time around the 0.6640 opening level, the move into the London session saw the market rallying through to make the 0.6675 highs for the day and into NYK collapsing back to the 0.6635 level pause and then run again eventually testing the 0.6565 area before slowly running through to above the 66 cents level for the close.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.0980 area the market struggled through into Asia before slowly drifting through the session to run to the grey hour testing towards the 1.0950 area, early London saw a limited rally before dipping quickly through to the 1.0935 low of the day and bouncing quickly through to the 1.1030 level highs holding through to the NYK session before dripping quickly back through to the 1.1000 level and ranging around the area for several hours before dipping for the run to the London close to the opening levels, the run to the close saw the market rising steadily through to the figure area.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
CAD BoC Council Member Wilkins speaks
CAD BoC Gov. Poloz Speaks
NZD RBNZ Financial stability report
AUD Construction work done -1.0% | C -1.5% | P -3.0%
EUR ECB President Lagarde speaks
EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
USD MBA Mortgage applications A 2.7% | P -2.6%
CAD Building Permits MoM (APR) A -17.1% | P -13.2%
USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD Beige Book
USD Weekly Crude Oil Stock A 8.7m | P -4.8m
Best Regards
Andy
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