Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.322 | EURUSD 1.1263 | AUDUSD 0.68895 | NZDUSD 0.64481 | USDCAD 1.35407 | USDCHF 0.95135 | GBPUSD 1.25729 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12734 | 1.12531
USDJPY 107.430 | 107.167
GBPUSD 1.25844 | 1.25417
USDCHF 0.95205 | 0.9506
AUDUSD 0.68966 | 0.6854
NZDUSD 0.64631 | 0.6430
USDCAD 1.35604 | 1.35377
EURCHF 1.07250 | 1.07079
EURGBP 0.89768 | 0.89515
EURJPY 121.032 | 120.649
For Today
- GBP: A slight dip from the opening around the 1.2575 area testing through to the 1.2555 level before running into early Tokyo buyers and the market making the high of the session on a push through the 1.2585 level, fixing supply saw the Cable dipping back a little and the market headed for the 1.2550 level holding through to midsession before breaking through to test the 1.2540 area and a slow grind back to just above the 1.2550 level for the move into the grey hour, Downside congestion through the 1.2450 level likely to temper any downward trend for the moment with stronger bids likely into the 1.2400 level however, a break here could see limited congestion through sentimental levels through to the 1.2200 level before stronger bids start to really appear. Topside offers stronger around the 1.2700 level for the moment through to the 1.2750 area. A push through the 1.2760 level will likely see strong offers again on any approach and push through to the 1.2810-20 area before stops appear and the market opens to weaker congestion through to the 1.2900 level where stronger offers are likely to appear to slow any further gains.
- JPY: All about the Tokyo fix today with the market slowly rising from the opening around the 107.30 area to push to just short of the 107.45 level and then dropping quickly on supply through to make the low around the 107.15 area for neither level to be tested again and a narrowing of the range through to the grey hour around the 107.30 level. Downside bids limited through to the 106.80 area and then weak stops for a quick move through to 106.50 level before turning into solid buyers through to the 106.00 level and likely through to the 105.70-80 area. Topside offers increasing through the 107.80 area and likely to continue through to the 108.10-20 area before weak stops appear and limited offers through to the 108.50 area where steady offers are likely to appear through to the 109.00 levels.
AUD: A slow drift through the session with the Oz making its highs only for supply fixing in Tokyo to take the market from the high 0.6890’s through to the 0.6850’s with a little chop continuing through to midsession the market eventually settled down having touched closer to the 0.6850 area to slowly crawl back to the 0.6870 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be light through the 0.7000 area and stiffen on any move through to the 0.7050-0.7100 area, once through the 0.7120 area the possibility of a small squeeze however, Downside bids light through to the 0.6800 area and continuing on any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move. With limited bids through to the 0.6700-0.6680 before stronger bids appear.
- EUR: Fairly non-eventful for the Euro dipping to early lows just below the 1.1260 level and slowly rising through into the Tokyo session pushing to just above the 1.1270 area before settling into the 1.1260 level to range through to the grey hour, Some congestion through to the 1.1400-20 level with limited stops through the area of 1.1420 should see stronger offers then appearing and increasing from the 1.1440 area onwards particularly through the 1.1480 level with stops quickly appearing on a push through the 1.1500 level to open up further gains technically to the topside. Downside bids light through to the 1.1200 level and weak stops on any dip through those weak bids into that level however, stronger bids start to appear on any push for the 1.1150 level and likely to continue in size to the 1.1100 level.
Overnight News
OIL:
Oil Retreats as China Virus outbreak darkens outlook for demand – BBG
INR/CNY:
Multiple casualties as fresh clashes between Indian and Chinese forces in disputed areas
KRW:
- Korea to deploy military units to Mt. Kumgang, Kaesong – BBG
- Korea to deploy civil police posts to demilitarized zone – KCNA
Kim May have more targets after blowing up Korea liaison office – BBG
USD:
US Cases rise 1%; Texas Hospitalizations surge – BBG
AUD:
RBA Voices unease about soaring share prices – AFR
NZD:
RBNZ’s Orr pleased with impact of QE, still has plenty of tools – BBG
USD/CNY:
US-China tech stand-off appears to be escalating – Nikkei
US Blacklists China’s MIT as tech war enters new phase – Nikkei
Harbin institute of Technology loses access to American technology and talent – Nikkei
JPY:
Japan’s exports fall most since 2009 as virus hits US shipments
GBP:
Generic 60-year-old Steroid has 1 in 8 chance of helping serious cases of the virus – BBC
UK eyes Billion GBP boost from Australia, New Zealand trade deals
GBP/EUR:
Brexit deal’s last hope: Germany – Politico.EU
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD Current Account YoY (Q1) A -8.51b | C -8.47b | P -9.23b
NZD Current Account QoQ (Q1) A 1.56b | C 1.48b | P -2.66b
JPY Adjusted Trade Balance A -0.60T | C -0.16T | P -1.00T | R -1.04T
JPY Exports YoY (MAY) A -29.3% | C -22.7% | P -21.9%
JPY Trade Balance (MAY) A -833.4b | C -560.0b | P -930.4b | R -931.9b
AUD HIA New Home Sales MoM A -4.2% | P -23.2% | R -1.1%
0600 GBP CPI MoM (MAY) A | C -0.1% | P -0.2%
0600 GBP CPI YoY (MAY) A | C 0.5% | P 0.8%
0600 GBP PPI Input MoM (MAY) A | C 4.5% | P -5.1%
0900 EUR Eurozone Core CPI YoY (MAY) A | C 0.9% | P 0.9%
0900 EUR Eurozone CPI MoM (MAY) A | C -0.1% | P 0.3%
0900 EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (MAY) A | 0.1% | P 0.1%
0900 EUR ECB’s Mersch Speaks
1100 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
1230 USD Building Permits MoM (MAY) A | P -21.4%
1230 USD Building Permits (MAY) A | C 1.228m | P 1.066m
1230 USD Housing Starts MoM (MAY) A | P -30.2%
1230 USD Housing Starts (MAY) A | C 1.095m | P 0.891m
1230 CAD Core CPI YoY (MAY) A | P 1.2%
1230 CAD Core CPI MoM (MAY) A | P -0.4%
1230 CAD CPI MoM (MAY) A | C 0.7% | P -0.7%
1430 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -0.152m | P 5.720m
1600 USD FED Chair Powell Testifies
2000 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
2245 NZD GDP QoQ (Q1) A | C -1.0% | P 0.5%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Rising from the opening around the 1.2600 level the market eased through into early Tokyo pushing through the 1.2630 level and pausing for a few hours before the BoJ announcement was over with and GBP continued to rise pushing through to the 1.2670 level after a flirtation with the 1.2650 area and then trading tightly around the 1.2665 level through into the grey hour where the days high was made just through the 1.2685 area, London moved in with a steady but strong bout of selling through to the 1.2610 level before ranging around the 1.2650 level through to the NYK session initially testing higher before better retail sales numbers kicked and the market quickly dropped through to the 1.2550 area bouncing weakly through to just above the 1.2600 level again and then drifting to the close.
- JPY: Choppy day for the USDJPY, opening around the 107.35 level and pushing through into early Tokyo testing the 107.50 level before quickly dropping back to the 107.25 level for the release of the BoJ announcement then rushing higher to make the high of the day just short of the 107.65 level and back to range around the 107.50 level through to the London session, quick move lower to the 107.30 area and the market then jostled around the 107.40 area dipping towards the lows then winding up for the move through to the NYK session and quickly pushing through the 107.60 level again and dropping back just as quickly once the US retail sales numbers were absorbed to test to the low of the day just above the 107.20 level and a slow push to just above the 107.30 level and unchanged on the day or thereabouts
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6915 level the market moved up quickly to the 0.6950 area on the RBA minutes and then traded around the level with a brief push through to the 0.6970 level on the BoJ announcement to make the high of the day before drifting through into the London session slowly testing through to the 69 cents before finding some support and holding around the 0.6925 area through to the NYK session in an uneventful market, NYK initially did very little however the downside broke and the Oz quickly dipped through to the 0.6830 area to make the low of the day before recovering through to the 0.6885 areas for the move into the close.
- EUR: Overall a very lacklustre day for the Euro, pushing from the opening levels around the 1.1325 area the market slowly rose into the Tokyo session testing the 1.1235 area held for a couple of hours in the area and then managed to move another 10 pips but was unable to test the 1.1350 until into the grey hour, and then only fractionally moving through the level and starting a steady slow drift with an increasing curve into the NYK session and pushing quickly through to the 1.1225 level into the London close before managing to scramble off the low and hold in a tight range around the 1.1250 level .
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q2) A 97.2 | P 104.2
AUD House Price Index QoQ (Q1) A 1.6% | C 2.7% | P 3.9%
AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
JPY BoJ Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus A 1.0% | C 1.4% | P 2.4% | R 2.3%
GBP Claimant Count Change (MAY) A 528.9k | C 400k | P 858.5k
GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (APR) A 6k | C -83k | P 211k
GBP Unemployment Rate (APR) A 3.9% | 4.7% | P 3.9%
EUR German CPI MoM (MAY) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.1%
JPY BoJ Press Conference
EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (JUN) A -83.1 | C -84.0 | P 93.5
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiments (JUN) A 63.4 | C 60.0 | P 51.0
EUR Eurozone Wages YoY (Q1) A 3.40% | P 2.30% | R 2.40%
EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (JUN) A 58.6 | P 46.0
USD Core Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A 12.4% | C 5.4% | P -17.2% | R -15.2%
USD Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A 17.7% | C 8.0% | P -16.4% | R -14.7%
USD Industrial Production YoY (MAY) A -15.27% | P -15.04% | R -16.25%
USD Industrial Production MoM (MAY) A 1.4% | C 2.9% | P -11.2% | R -12.5%
USD Business Inventories MoM (APR) A -1.3% | C -0.8% | P -0.2% | R -0.3%
USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (APR) A -1.1% | P -1.1%
Best Regards
Andy
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