Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.009 | EURUSD 1.12442 | AUDUSD 0.6884 | NZDUSD 0.64629 | USDCAD 1.35636 | USDCHF 0.94864 | GBPUSD 1.25562 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12516 | 1.1225
USDJPY 107.054 | 106.702
GBPUSD 1.25678 | 1.25258
USDCHF 0.95007 | 0.94848
AUDUSD 0.68963 | 0.6840
NZDUSD 0.64811 | 0.64248
USDCAD 1.36086 | 1.35574
EURCHF 1.06763 | 1.0662
EURGBP 0.89743 | 0.89505
EURJPY 120.409 | 119.831
For Today
- GBP: Opening on a wide one the market moved from the 1.2555 level through to the 1.2540 level before stabilizing around the 1.2550 area and rise slowly through to test just above the 1.2565 level in early Tokyo buying only to move back into the opening and range around the 1.2550 level for the fix in Tokyo, barely moving the Cable touched above the 1.2560 area before eventually dropping through to the 1.2530 areas and ticking through to the 1.2525 area several times through the midsession and a quiet range before running steadily back to the closing levels for the move into the grey hour, Downside congestion through the 1.2450 level likely to temper any downward trend for the moment with stronger bids likely into the 1.2400 level however, a break here could see limited congestion through sentimental levels through to the 1.2200 level before stronger bids start to really appear. Topside offers stronger around the 1.2700 level for the moment through to the 1.2750 area. A push through the 1.2760 level will likely see strong offers again on any approach and push through to the 1.2810-20 area before stops appear and the market opens to weaker congestion through to the 1.2900 level where stronger offers are likely to appear to slow any further gains.
- JPY: Opening above the 107.00 level and through into the Tokyo session the market held above the level testing through to the 107.05 area however, Tokyo came in selling from the opening and the market pushed through into the Fix testing through to the 106.70 area and finding a base ranged through into midsession around the 106.80 level before slowly pushing through the 106.90 before drifting through to the grey hour holding just above the 106.80 area. Downside bids into the 106.50 level with likely weakness through the level limited and stronger bids appearing from the 106.20 area through to 105.80, 105.50 has primarily been a tough level in the dips in 2018 and 2019 so strong congestion likely to appear and continue through to the 104.80 levels. Topside offers increasing through the 107.80 area and likely to continue through to the 108.10-20 area before weak stops appear and limited offers through to the 108.50 area where steady offers are likely to appear through to the 109.00 levels.
AUD: Opening a little lower and straight away filling that gap the early Tokyo buyers took the market through to the 0.6895 area before drifting off and slowly push through the opening 0.6880 level to hold quietly around that level for several hours before dipping quickly with poor employment numbers and testing the 0.6840, a steady recovery through to the grey hours saw the market make its way back to the 0.6875 areas. Topside offers likely to be light through the 0.7000 area and stiffen on any move through to the 0.7050-0.7100 area, once through the 0.7120 area the possibility of a small squeeze however, Downside bids light through to the 0.6800 area and continuing on any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move. With limited bids through to the 0.6700-0.6680 before stronger bids appear.
- EUR: Euro dragged lower on the Oz employment numbers otherwise the market would have remained around the 1.1245 level ranging early between the 1.1240-50 level before dipping away to push below the 1.1230 level testing the 1.1225 level at a test before slowly rising through to the 1.1250 area again to hold quietly for the grey hour, Some congestion through to the 1.1400-20 level with limited stops through the area of 1.1420 should see stronger offers then appearing and increasing from the 1.1440 area onwards particularly through the 1.1480 level with stops quickly appearing on a push through the 1.1500 level to open up further gains technically to the topside. Downside bids light through to the 1.1200 level and weak stops on any dip through those weak bids into that level however, stronger bids start to appear on any push for the 1.1150 level and likely to continue in size to the 1.1100 level.
Overnight News
CNY/INR:
Message or a mess: India-China clash in the Himalayas – SYH
PRC says clash all India’s fault as gruesome details emerge
PM Modi: India’s integrity and sovereignty is supreme for us, and no one can stop us from defending it – thepointout
USD:
Mnuchin declares global corporate tax talks at an impasse – DJ
NZD:
New Zealand economy contracted more than forecast in first Qtr. – BBG
G7/CNY:
G7 Foreign Ministers urge China not impose security law in Hong Kong
ForMin issue joint statement underscoring grave concern regarding China’s decision to impose a national security law on Hong Kong
Ministers say they strongly urge the government of China to reconsider the decision
CNY:
China seeks more reasonable pricing for imported Iron Ore – BBG
China forbids new steel smelting capacity in 2020 – BBG
CNY/USD:
Chia Diplomat Yank told Pompeo that cooperation between US/China the only correct choice – RTRs
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD GDP QoQ (Q1) A -1.6% | C -1.0% | P 0.5%
AUD Employment Change (MAY) A -227.7k | C -125.0k | P -594.3k
AUD Full Employment Change (MAY) A -89.1k | P -220.5k
AUD Unemployment Rate (MAY) A 7.1% | C 7.0% | P 6.2%
0730 CHF SNB Interest rate Decision A | C -0.75% | P -0.75%
0730 CHF SNB Monetary policy assessment
0800 CHF SNB Press Conference
0800 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
1100 GBP BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (JUN) A | C 9 | P 9
1100 GBP BoE QE Total (JUN) A | C 725b | P 625b
1100 GBP Interest Rate Decision A | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
1100 GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
1230 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 1,300k | P 1.542k
1230 USD Philly FED Employment A | P -15.3
1230 CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (MAY) A | P 0.0%
1230 CAD Wholesale Sales MoM (APR) A | C -12.6% | P -2.2%
1615 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
1730 CAD BoC GCM Schemri Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Overall not a bad range for the day however, the first half generally saw the market ranging above the 1.2550 level and the second half below that level, Opening around the 1.2565 level the market made its way to the 1.2585 areas before the Tokyo fix sent the GBPJPY lower and both legs taking the hit testing the Cable to the 1.2550 level are the market based there for a limited period before dipping a little through and then moving through into the grey hours pushing lightly above the 1.2550 area and early London taking the Cable back to the highs testing slightly through to make the high for the day just short of the 1.2590 area before drifting back into late morning to test through to the 1.2520 level before bouncing for the move into the NYK session and close to the highs again, A slow drift through the NYK session saw the lows extended through to the 1.2510 level and again bouncing off the level and the market then settling in around the 1.2550 level through to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 107.30 level the market ran steadily through to the 107.40 area and fixing saw a quick reach for the 107.45 level and then a quick dip down to the 107.20 basing along the 107.20 level through the Asian session the excitement of the fix was the only excitement in Tokyo with the move through into the grey hour seeing the market pushing through to the highs again testing it a couple of times before heading quietly into the NYK session and the last test of the highs before safe haven flows started to form the basis for the move lower through to the 107.00 level
- AUD: A very quiet session for the Oz with limited movement leading to choppy movements through the day, opening a little off the closing price and dipping through to the 0.6870 area for the initial hour, early Tokyo took the market steadily through to just above the 0.6890 area and as with the other pairs Tokyo fixing hit the Oz and a quick move through to the 0.6860 level spending a few hours through midsession testing lower bouncing and finally close to the 0.6850 area before starting a slow steady recovery into the 0.6880 area and Early London quickly took the market through to the 0.6910 level and the opening in London saw the high just sneaking through the 0.6920 level before drifting a little and then dipping quickly through to the 0.6870 level before settling around the 0.6900 area for the run through the NYK session, dipping and rising to just below the highs before drifting through to the close.
- EUR: A slow range through into midsession in Tokyo before starting a slow rise from the 1.1260 level to push through into early London pushing the 1.1290 level and the high of the day just above the area, weak inflationary numbers were again the centre for attention and the market dropped back to the 1.1230 level for a quiet move through into the NYK session and then ranging around the 1.1240 until a dip through to the 1.1205 area was eventually turned and the market slowly pushed through to the close just above the 1.1240 level.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD Current Account YoY (Q1) A -8.51b | C -8.47b | P -9.23b
NZD Current Account QoQ (Q1) A 1.56b | C 1.48b | P -2.66b
JPY Adjusted Trade Balance A -0.60T | C -0.16T | P -1.00T | R -1.04T
JPY Exports YoY (MAY) A -29.3% | C -22.7% | P -21.9%
JPY Trade Balance (MAY) A -833.4b | C -560.0b | P -930.4b | R -931.9b
AUD HIA New Home Sales MoM A -4.2% | P -23.2% | R -1.1%
GBP CPI MoM (MAY) A 0.0% | C -0.1% | P -0.2%
GBP CPI YoY (MAY) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.8%
GBP PPI Input MoM (MAY) A 0.3% | C 4.5% | P -5.1%
EUR Eurozone Core CPI YoY (MAY) A 0.9% | C 0.9% | P 0.9%
EUR Eurozone CPI MoM (MAY) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P 0.3%
EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (MAY) A 0.1% | 0.1% | P 0.1%
EUR ECB’s Mersch Speaks
EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
USD Building Permits MoM (MAY) A 14.4% | P -21.4%
USD Building Permits (MAY) A 1.220m | C 1.228m | P 1.066m
USD Housing Starts MoM (MAY) A 4.3% | P -30.2% | R -26.4%
USD Housing Starts (MAY) A 0.974m | C 1.095m | P 0.891m | R 0.934m
CAD Core CPI YoY (MAY) A 0.7% | P 1.2%
CAD Core CPI MoM (MAY) A -0.1% | P -0.4%
CAD CPI MoM (MAY) A 0.3% | C 0.7% | P -0.7%
USD Crude Oil Inventories A 1.215m | C -0.152m | P 5.720m
USD FED Chair Powell Testifies
USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.