Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.222 | EURUSD 1.12423 | AUDUSD 0.6867 | NZDUSD 0.64163 | USDCAD 1.36609 | USDCHF 0.95119 | GBPUSD 1.22985 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12512 | 1.12339
USDJPY 107.786 | 107.543
GBPUSD 1.23153 | 1.22899
USDCHF 0.95172 | 0.95088
AUDUSD 0.68850 | 0.68591
NZDUSD 0.64275 | 0.64123
USDCAD 1.36701 | 1.36545
EURCHF 1.06964 | 1.0691
EURGBP 0.91397 | 0.91344
EURJPY 121.170 | 120.87
For Today
- GBP: A very quiet range with the Cable opening around the 1.2295 area and slowly pushing through into the Tokyo session testing the 1.2315 area for the highs of the day so far, the market dipped through to the 1.2300 level before again making a steady move through to the high and holding mid-range through to the grey hour, Downside bids into the 1.2250 level likely to be a little thicker with day traders having had a look at the level yesterday with further bids likely to appear to the 1.2200 level likely to be slow going with congestion likely to continue with a mix of stops on a push through the 1.2160 area for a stretch to the 1.2100 level, Topside offers light through to the 1.2400 level and weak stops could cause a small short squeeze with some offers through the 1.2500 levels and increasing weakness until above the 1.2550-1.2600.
- JPY: A quiet start with the market holding around the 107.60 level through into the Tokyo session before steadily pushing towards the 107.80 area and continued to hold above the 107.80 through to the grey hour, topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside weak through the 107.00 level before opening for a fresh run at the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: Dipping through to the 0.6860 level from the opening the market recovered for the move into Tokyo testing through to the 0.6875 area, the market dipped again and tested the lows again before pushing a little more strongly through the 0.6880 area to push weakly through to the 0.6885 area for the high and holding for the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 69 cents level and opening only a little on a break above the 0.6920 area and light stops pushing to the 0.6950 area, likely to be light through the 0.7000 area and stiffen on any move through to the 0.7050-0.7100 area, once through the 0.7120 area the possibility of a small squeeze however, Downside bids light through to the 0.6800 area and continuing on any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move. With limited bids through to the 0.6700-0.6680 before stronger bids appear.
- EUR: Rising quietly from the opening to push through the 1.1250 areas from the 1.1240 level before dipping back and holding in the area through to the grey hour, downside congestion through the 1.1200 level with weak stops likely on a strong move through the 1.1170 area opening up a quick test through the 1.1150 level before hitting stronger congestion through to the 1.1100 level from the beginning of the month and vulnerable to a stronger move through to 1.1050 before the market starts thickening for the sentimental 1.1000, Topside congestion into the 1.1280-1.1300 area building the longer it remains below with further offers through the 1.1350 level with increasing offers likely through to the 1.1400 level with strong stops possible on a move through the 1.1420 area to open up a quick move through to the 1.1450 area before slowing as the market moves to the sentimental 1.1480-1.1520 area and possibly a bid tone.
Overnight News
USD:
Powell warns of extraordinary uncertainty, Urgency to curb virus – BBG
USD/HKD:
Pompeo says US ending some defence, tech exports to Hong Kong – BBG
US Commerce secretary says Hong Kong’s special status revoked over China actions – BBG
CNY:
Trade spat, Virus add fuel to China’s push for Iron ore security – BBG
TWD/CNY:
Taiwan plans to tighten investment rules for China – FT
CNY/USD:
US downgraded to medium risk for China investment as relations turn sour amid higher uncertainties – SMP
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
JPY Jobs/applications ratio (MAY) A 1.20 | C 1.23 | P 1.32
JPY Industrial Production MoM (MAY) A -8.4% | C -5.6% | P -9.8%
CNY Chinese Composite PMI (JUN) A 54.2 | P 53.4
CNY Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A 50.9 | C 50.4 | P 50.6
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A 54.4 | P 53.6
NZD ANZ Business Confidence (JUN) A -34.4 | P -41.8
AUD Private Sector Credit MoM (MAY) A -0.1% | P 0.1%
AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
0600 GBP Business Investment QoQ (Q1) A | C 0.0% | -0.5%
0600 GBP Current Account (Q1) A | C -15.4b | P -5.6b
0600 GBP GDP QoQ (Q1) A | C -2.0% | P 0.0%
0600 GBP GDP YoY (Q1) A | C -1.6% | P 1.1%
0630 CHF Retail Sales YoY (MAY) A | P -19.9%
0700 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (JUN) A | C 77 | P 53.2
0700 EUR Spanish GDP QoQ (Q1) A | C -5.2% | P 0.4%
0900 EUR Core CPI YoY A | P 0.9%
0900 EUR CPI MoM A | P -0.1%
0900 EUR CPI YoY (JUN) A | C 0.1% | P 0.1%
1000 GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
1230 CAD GDP MoM (APR) A | C -13.0% | P -7.2%
1300 EUR ECB’s Schnabel speaks
1345 USD Chicago PMI (JUN) A | C 45.0 | P 32.3
1400 GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
1400 USD Consumer Confidence A | C 91.8 | P 86.6
1500 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
1500 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
1505 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
1630 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
1800 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
2030 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks A | P 1,749m
2230 AUD AiG Manufacturing Index (JUN) A | P 41.6
2245 NZD Building Consents MoM (MAY) A | -6.5%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow start to the session saw the Cable unchanged and holding around the 1.2335 level through into Tokyo before starting a slow steady push through to the 1.2360 level, a few weak stops saw the market push through into the grey hours making the high around the 1.2390 area before moving into the London session and slipping into a steady drift lower into the London session, a tight channelled drift through to the 1.2320 where the market closed on Friday, the move through into the NYK session slowly saw the 1.2300 level and triggered more selling on the opening to push the market quickly through to the 1.2250 area and a bounce from there to the 1.2290 level and a slow grind to finish the day just below the 1.2300 level.
- JPY: Opening unchanged and dipping towards the 107.10 area before ranging through to the Tokyo session holding the opening level, the push through the Tokyo fix saw very little movement however, post the event USDJPY ran through to the high 107.30’s before then spending the run into London drifting through to test the 107.05 area repeating the test into London opening and then slowly grinding back to the opening levels to trade quietly through the London morning to push into the NYK session with stronger buying moving in to take the market through to the 107.90 areas before running into sufficient offers and maybe on the story of USD liquidity issues for the future in EM currencies, especially those that issued debt in USD’s that need serving in said currency, the move through to the close saw the market holding around the 107.70-80 areas for the most part until the last hour where it dipping through to the 107.55 area.
- AUD: Dipping from the opening around the 0.6860 level through to the 0.6845 area in early trading before bouncing back to the opening for the move through into Tokyo session and a steady rise through to the 0.6885 level and drifting a little before running again to touch through the 0.6890 level for the move into the grey hour, London quick sellers through to the 0.6870 area and then ranging through to the NYK session holding in the 0.6870-80 area, selling from the opening saw the Oz dip back to the 0.6840 area for the low of the day before a steady grind back through to the 0.6865 level for the close.
- EUR: A quiet opening moving from the 1.1225 area through into the Tokyo session holding the level tightly before Tokyo started a steady push through deep into the grey hour testing the 1.1270 area before pausing into the London opening dipping back through the 1.1250 level and then starting a second run through to the 1.1280 area to range around the level through deep into NYK morning before dipping quickly back to the 1.1240 level and then once London closed running again to push through to the opening level before bouncing and then gradually pushing through to the 1.1240’s for the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
CNY Chinese Industrial Profit YoY (MAY) A 6.00% | P -4.30%
CNY Chinese Industrial Profit YTD (MAY) A -19.3% | P -27.4%
JPY Retail Sales YoY (MAY) A | C -11.8% | P -13.9%
EUR Spanish CPI YoY A -0.3% | P -0.9%
EUR Spanish HICP YoY (JUN) A -0.3% | C -0.5% | P -0.9%
EUR German CPI MoM (JUN) A 0.6% | C 0.3% | P -0.1%
CAD Building Permits MoM (MAY) A 20.2% | P -17.1% | R -15.4%
CAD RMPI MoM (MAY) A 16.4% | P -13.4%
USD Pending Home Sales MoM (MAY) A 44.3% | C 19.7% | P -21.8%
Best Regards
Andy
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