Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.47 | EURUSD 1.12513 | AUDUSD 0.6915 | NZDUSD 0.64735 | USDCAD 1.35868 | USDCHF 0.94735 | GBPUSD 1.24746 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12640 | 1.12475
USDJPY 107.552 | 107335
GBPUSD 1.24932 | 1.24614
USDCHF 0.94629 | 0.94508
AUDUSD 0.69255 | 0.69049
NZDUSD 0.64938 | 0.6477
USDCAD 1.36054 | 1.35813
EURCHF 1.06533 | 1.06395
EURGBP 0.90268 | 0.90162
EURJPY 121.084 | 120.766
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2475 level the market struggled through into the Tokyo session holding the area before dipping through slowly to the 1.2460 area before finding stronger bids moving in and a steady rise through to just short of the 1.2490 level holding for a short period before drifting and starting a slower move back to the area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.2500 level with limited stops until the market breaks through the 1.2550 area and likely stronger offers and congestion possible then through to the stronger 1.2600 levels from last month with possible openings through that level, downside bids light through to the 1.2400 level with possible weak stops through the level opening the downside through to the 1.2300 level before stiffer support starts to appear through to the 1.2200.
- JPY: Initial weakness through to the Tokyo fix with the market dipping from the 107.45 area through to below the 107.35 before starting a very slow rise through to the 107.55 level for the high of the session and a steady drift back to the opening level again, topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside weak through the 107.00 level before opening for a fresh run at the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: A fairly static market with more of a focus on NFP later today for the antipodeans, or so the market says, opening around the 0.6915 level the market generally maintained the area with a brief move through to the 0.6925 level and having not run into the classic weak stops broke quickly lower to test to the low of the session around the 0.6905 level for the range of the day returning to the 0.6915 levels again. Topside offers through the 0.6920 area continue to top the immediate market with congestion likely to continue through the 69 cents handle increasing on any breakthrough to the 0.6980-0.7000 area with weak stops likely to be around the 0.7040 area and usually sentimentally resistant. Downside bids light through to the 0.6800 area and continuing on any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move. With limited bids through to the 0.6700-0.6680 before stronger bids appear.
- EUR: A quiet session for the Euro, but then that’s been normal for several weeks for the so called reserve currency, opening around the 1.1250 level the market moved through to deep into the Tokyo session pushing lightly onto the 1.1240’s, but only just before starting a slow rise through to the 1.1265 level to define the range for the move into the grey hour, downside congestion through the 1.1200 level with weak stops likely on a strong move through the 1.1170 area opening up a quick test through the 1.1150 level before hitting stronger congestion through to the 1.1100 level from the beginning of the month and vulnerable to a stronger move through to 1.1050 before the market starts thickening for the sentimental 1.1000, Topside congestion into the 1.1280-1.1300 area building the longer it remains below with further offers through the 1.1350 level with increasing offers likely through to the 1.1400 level with strong stops possible on a move through the 1.1420 area to open up a quick move through to the 1.1450 area before slowing as the market moves to the sentimental 1.1480-1.1520 area and possibly a bid tone.
Overnight News
USD:
US gets almost all of the worlds supply of key Covid-19 drug – CNN
US House moves to toughen sanctions over Hong Kong law
EUR:
German MP’s bid to close case on ECB bond buying row – Frankfurt am Main
NZD:
NZ health Minister resigns after coronavirus criticism
AUD:
Fifty Woolworths staff in isolation after positive tests – AFR
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD Trade Balance A 8.025b | P 8.800b
0630 CHF CPI MoM (JUN) A | C 0.1% | P 0.0%
0700 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change A | P 26.6k
0900 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate (MAY) A | C 7.7% | P 7.3%
1200 EUR German BuBa Wemeling Speaks
1230 USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM (JUN) A | C -0.7% | P -1.0%
1230 USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (JUN) A | C 5.3% | P 6.7%
1230 USD Exports A | P 151.28b
1230 USD Imports A | P 200.89b
1230 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 1,355k | P 1,480k
1230 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (JUN) A | C 3,000k | P 2,509k
1230 USD Participation Rate (JUN) A | P 60.8%
1230 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (JUN) A | C 2,900k | P 3,094k
1230 USD Trade Balance (MAY) A | C -53.00b | P -49.40b
1230 USD Unemployment Rate (JUN) A | C 12.3% | P 13.3%
1230 CAD Trade Balance (MAY) A | C -3.00b | P -3.25b
1300 EUR ECB’s Mersch Speaks
1400 USD Factory Orders MoM (MAY) A | C 8.9% | P -13.0%
1600 GBP BoE Financial Stability Report
1700 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 265
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Asia struggled with the topside pushing initially at the 1.2400 level from the opening around the 1.2395 area before moving through into the Tokyo session drifting through to the 1.2375 area and ranging tightly before dipping again through to the 1.2360 area for the move into the grey hour, a slow rise through into the London session saw the market pushing to just below the opening level before quickly testing through to the 1.2415 level , the market ranged to the end of the morning session holding the 1.2400 level before early NYK sold the market back to test below the 1.2400 area and through to the 1.2375, the opening in NYK reversed the losses steadily and the market moved higher on a tight channelled rally through to the 1.2485 area before ranging through to a quiet close around the 1.2480 area.
- JPY: Quiet move through into the Tokyo session holding around the 107.95 area before popping through the 108 level to test the 108.15 level before dropping quickly back from the level and testing through to the 107.70 area before finding some light bids, holding briefly before slipping on another step to the 107.60 level for the move into the London session, the market continued to trade lower slipping for the third time to hold the 107.50 area and then ranging through to the close in the area testing lightly to the downside to the 107.35 level at the most before always returning to the median.
- AUD: Opening around the 69 cents level the market ranged around the level through into the Tokyo session making a minor push through to the 0.6915 level before slowly drifting through to late in the session before dipping away to the 0.6890 level, early London were steady buyers for the move into the London session and a push through to the 0.6920 before running out of steam and ideas to again test below the 69 cents level pushing eventually through to the 0.6880 area as NYK opened and a repeat of the London opening with steady buying taking the market through to the highs of the day just above the 0.6940 level before dipping for the London close and holding quietly around the 0.6920 for the move to the close.
- EUR: A quiet run through the first half of the Asian session with the market holding the 1.1230 level before rising to test the 1.1240 for the early high, a slow drift through to the late part of the session testing the 1.1220 level for the move into the grey hour, slow buying through into the London session pushing above the 1.1240 area but quickly running out of room German unemployment numbers didn’t help however, overall the range was limited for the day and the market dipping from the 1.1240 area through to make the lows into the opening in NYK testing the 1.1185 level and a similar low to the previous day before pushing through to make the high after a steady tight channelled run to the 1.1275 area with interest waning through in a quiet run to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD AiG Manufacturing Index (JUN) A 51.5 | P 41.6
NZD Building Consents MoM (MAY) A 35.6% | P -6.5% | R -9.9%
JPY Tankan all Big Industry CAPEX (Q2) A 3.2% | C 2.1% | P 1.8%
JPY Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q2) A -27 | C -24 | P -11
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2) A -34 | C -31 | P -8
JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2) A -17 | C -18 | P 8
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A 51.2 | C 50.5 | P 50.7
AUD Building Approvals MoM (MAY) A -16.4% | C -10.0% | P -1.8%
GBP Nationwide HPI MoM (JUN) A -1.4% | C -0.7% | P -1.7%
GBP Nationwide HPI YoY (JUN) A -0.1% | C 1.0% | P 1.8%
EUR Germany Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A 13.9% | C 3.9% | P -5.3% | R -6.5%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A 49.0 | C 45.1 | P 38.3
CHF Procure ch PMI (JUN) A 41.9 | C 48.3 | P 42.1
EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
EUR German Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A 45.2 | C 44.6 | P 44.6
EUR German Unemployment Change (JUN) A 69k | C 120k | P 238k
EUR German Unemployment Rate (JUN) A 6.4% | C 6.6% | P 6.3%
EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A 47.4 | C 46.9 | P 46.9
GBP Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A 50.1 | C 50.1 | P 50.1
GBP BoE MPC Member Hasket Speaks
USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (JUN) A 2,369k | C 3,000k | P -2,760k | R 3,065k
EUR German BuBa Mauderer Speaks
USD Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A 49.8 | C 49.6 | P 49.6
USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (JUN) A 42.1 | C 43 | P 42.1
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (JUN) A 52.8 | C 49.5 | P 43.1
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -7,195m | C 0.710m | P 1.442m
EUR German BuBa Wuermeling Speaks
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Best Regards
Andy
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