Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.497 | EURUSD 1.12394 | AUDUSD 0.69258 | NZDUSD 0.65127 | USDCAD 1.35638 | USDCHF 0.9453 | GBPUSD 1.2468 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12478 | 1.12310
USDJPY 107.592 | 107.439
GBPUSD 1.24739 | 1.24572
USDCHF 0.94588 | 0.94554
AUDUSD 0.69311 | 0.69145
NZDUSD 0.65176 | 0.65048
USDCAD 1.35690 | 1.3558
EURCHF 1.06345 | 1.0626
EURGBP 0.90259 | 0.90138
EURJPY 120.938 | 120.753
For Today
- GBP: Opening just off its highs for the session the market eased through into the Tokyo session testing just above the 1.2470 level and dipping through to the 1.2460 area to define a slow session in the run to the long weekend in the US. Topside offers through the 1.2500 level with limited stops until the market breaks through the 1.2550 area and likely stronger offers and congestion possible then through to the stronger 1.2600 levels from last month with possible openings through that level, downside bids light through to the 1.2400 level with possible weak stops through the level opening the downside through to the 1.2300 level before stiffer support starts to appear through to the 1.2200.
- JPY: Patchy session with the USDJPY opening around the 107.55 level and quietly moving through into the Tokyo session before dipping through to the low 107.40’s before finding light buyers through to the opening level again and eventually extending the high through to just above that area, the move through to the grey hour saw a limited drift to heard into the grey hour holding the 107.50 area. topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside weak through the 107.00 level before opening for a fresh run at the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: A similar range to the prior two pairs with the market drifting from the opening around the 0.6920-25 level through to into Tokyo testing to the 0.6914 area for the low of the day before pushing back to the 0.6930 area and holding then close to the area for the move through to the grey hour, Topside offers through the 0.6930 area continue to top the immediate market with congestion likely to continue through the 69 cents handle increasing on any breakthrough to the 0.6980-0.7000 area with weak stops likely to be around the 0.7040 area and usually sentimentally resistant. Downside bids light through to the 0.6800 area and continuing on any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move. With limited bids through to the 0.6700-0.6680 before stronger bids appear.
- EUR: A quiet session through into the Tokyo session holding the opening range around the 1.1240 area, early Tokyo sent the market to the early low around the 1.1232 area before rallying towards the 1.1250 level and holding quietly deep into the session unable to push through the level before dipping back to the lows for the move into the grey hour, downside congestion through the 1.1200 level with weak stops likely on a strong move through the 1.1170 area opening up a quick test through the 1.1150 level before hitting stronger congestion through to the 1.1100 level from the beginning of the month and vulnerable to a stronger move through to 1.1050 before the market starts thickening for the sentimental 1.1000, Topside congestion into the 1.1280-1.1300 area building the longer it remains below with further offers through the 1.1350 level with increasing offers likely through to the 1.1400 level with strong stops possible on a move through the 1.1420 area to open up a quick move through to the 1.1450 area before slowing as the market moves to the sentimental 1.1480-1.1520 area and possibly a bid tone.
Overnight News
USD:
Study confirms new version of coronavirus spreads faster, but doesn’t make people sicker – CNN
CDC as of Jun 29, forecasts suggest 11 states are likely to report more Covid19 deaths in the next 4 weeks – TWT
GBP/USD:
Brexit talks break up 24hrs early as EU accuses UK of showing lack of respect – The Sun
USD/CNY:
China clashes with US over new Hong Kong security law
China military exercises will further destabilise South China Sea – Pentagon
EUR/CNY:
Spain fines staff of China’s ICBC for money laundering
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
JPY Service PMI (JUN) A 45.0 | C 42.3 | P 26.5
AUD Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A 18.9% | C 16.3% | P -17.7%
CNY Caixin Services PMI (JUN) A 58.4 | P 55.0
CNY Composite PMI (JUN) A 55.7 | P 53.4
0715 EUR Spanish Services PMI (JUN) A | C 45.9 | P 27.9
0755 EUR German Services PMI (JUN) A | C 45.8 | P 32.6
0800 EUR Markit Composite PMI (JUN) A | C 47.5 | P 31.9
0800 EUR Services PMI (JUN) A | C 47.3 | P 30.5
0830 GBP Composite PMI (JUN) A | C 47.6 | P 30.0
0830 GBP Services PMI (JUN) A | C 47.0 | P 29.0
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A little choppy through the day with the market opening just below the 1.2480 level and holding through into the Tokyo session before dipping a little through to just above the 1.2460 area before recovering and then squeezing out the early sellers on the push through the 1.2480 level to test the 1.2490 level, the market drifted a little before running for the second time to push above the level and then hold through to the grey hour before breaking through the 1.2500 level and immediately rejecting the move to drop into the London opening testing the 1.2480 area only to bounce back and break through to the 1.2520 area before grinding to a halt just above the 1.2525 area, ranging through to the NYK session in the 1.2510-20 area the NYK session was quick off the market and tested through to the 1.2530 level before immediately dropping through to the 1.2470 level back up and then off to the 1.2460 area to settle into a tight long drawn out range to the close.
- JPY: Limited movement through to the NFP, opening around the 107.45 level and quickly testing through the 107.50 before drifting through to the Tokyo session dipping quickly through the 107.35 level before slowly pushing through into midsession pushing above the 107.55 for the early highs and defining the range into London, and again quickly ran to the lows around the 107.35 level, the move through the morning session in London saw the market running back to the 107.50 area and once into the NYK session and a massive NFP number saw the USDJPY quickly test above the 107.70 level, this does have to take in the dire numbers over the past 3 months or so around the world and the likely recovery as the economy starts back, having hit the 107.75 area the market turned quickly back and then settled into the 107.55 area for the run to the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6915 area and ranging through to the grey hour, testing into the 0.6925 areas and unable to push through the 0.6910 level, the move through to the London session saw a steady rise through to the 0.6935 level in midmorning before drifting back to the 0.6920-30 area for the NYK opening then chopping to above the 0.6940 level and back through to the 0.6920 area, then increasing the range for the day on a push above 0.6950 and immediately dipping through to the 0.6900 level, the run to the close was quiet with a US bank holiday rising slowly to the 0.6920 areas.
- EUR: A quiet opening and steady move through into0 the Tokyo session testing lightly through the 1.1250 area before starting a steady rise through to the 1.1270 level for the move into the grey hour and the London opening saw the market quickly push through to the 1.1285 area before pausing and running for a second time and a constant push through to the 1.1300 level before dropping back and holding the 1.1280-90 area through to the NYK session, USD buyers aw the market dip back to the opening level and a brief pause before running on the NFP to the 1.1220 area with a steady move through to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD Trade Balance A 8.025b | P 8.800b
CHF CPI MoM (JUN) A 0.0% | C 0.1% | P 0.0%
EUR Spanish Unemployment Change A 5.1k | P 26.6k
EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate (MAY) A 7.4% | C 7.7% | P 7.3%
EUR German BuBa Wemeling Speaks
USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM (JUN) A -1.2% | C -0.7% | P -1.0%
USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (JUN) A 5.0% | C 5.3% | P 6.7%
USD Exports A 144.51b | P 151.28b | R 151.13b
USD Imports A 199.12b | P 200.89b | R 200.89b
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 1,427k | C 1,355k | P 1,480k | R 1,482k
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (JUN) A 4,800k | C 3,000k | P 2,509k | R 2,699k
USD Participation Rate (JUN) A 61.5% | P 60.8%
USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (JUN) A 4,767k | C 2,900k | P 3,094k | R 3,232k
USD Trade Balance (MAY) A-54.60b | C -53.00b | P -49.40b | R -49.80b
USD Unemployment Rate (JUN) A 11.1% | C 12.3% | P 13.3% | R 13.5%
CAD Trade Balance (MAY) A -0.68b | C -3.00b | P -3.25b | R -4.27b
EUR ECB’s Mersch Speaks
USD Factory Orders MoM (MAY) A 8.0% | C 8.9% | P -13.0% | R -13.5%
GBP BoE Financial Stability Report
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 263 | P 265
Best Regards
Andy
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