Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.521 | EURUSD 1.12744 | AUDUSD 0.69462 | NZDUSD 0.65493 | USDCAD 1.36031 | USDCHF 0.94247 | GBPUSD 1.25421 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12825 | 1.12655
USDJPY 107.713 | 107.504
GBPUSD 1.25665 | 1.25341
USDCHF 0.94309 | 0.94244
AUDUSD 0.69499 | 0.69334
NZDUSD 0.65613 | 0.65232
USDCAD 1.36120 | 1.35953
EURCHF 1.06323 | 1.06252
EURGBP 0.89960 | 0.89775
EURJPY 121.429 | 121.225
For Today
- GBP: A very quiet session with the market gradually pushing to the 1.2540 level before moving into the Tokyo session and pushing through to test through the 1.2550 level and struggle to just above the 1.2560 area before slipping back to the 1.2550 area and reforming for a second run this time pushing slightly above the 1.2565 area and failing again, the market dipped to the opening level again and then struggled to the 1.2560 level over the course of several hours before heading into the grey hour holding around the area. Topside offers likely to be weaker through to the 1.2600 level having cleared out much of the range however, short term sellers are still likely to line up for any move to the level before sentimental offers only through the level and exposing the market to a stronger rally towards the 1.2700 level with stronger congestion into the figure level and limited stops and increasing congestion through the area. downside bids light through to the 1.2400 level with possible weak stops through the level opening the downside through to the 1.2300 level before stiffer support starts to appear through to the 1.2200.
- JPY: A steady rise from the 107.55 level to gradually push through the 107.70 level before drifting through the balance of the session to fall back into the 107.50’s for the move into the grey hour, . topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside weak through the 107.00 level before opening for a fresh run at the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: Weak push towards the 0.6950 level before drifting off the level after the third push to test through to the 0.6930’s to create the low and a narrowing of a range around the 0.6940 level through to the grey hour, Topside offers through the current level with increasing through the 0.7000 area and while there could be weak stops through the 0.7020 level the market is likely to see increasing congestion through the 0.7040-60 level before opening up for stronger offers into the 0.7080-0.7100 level and possibly stronger stops close too. Downside bids light through to the 0.6930 before some stronger bids start to move in however, while they may have some strength the numbers are limited and a clearance will open weakness down through into the 0.6840-50 area where limited sentimental bids hold sway with stronger bids then appearing on any test of the 0.6800-0.6780 area before weak stops appear.
- EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro trading at the widest just above the 1.1280 level and towards the 1.1265 area before narrowing down onto the 1.1275 level through to the grey hour, downside congestion through the 1.1200 level with weak stops likely on a strong move through the 1.1170 area opening up a quick test through the 1.1150 level before hitting stronger congestion through to the 1.1100 level from the beginning of the month and vulnerable to a stronger move through to 1.1050 before the market starts thickening for the sentimental 1.1000, Topside congestion into the 1.1350 level with increasing offers likely through to the 1.1400 level with strong stops possible on a move through the 1.1420 area to open up a quick move through to the 1.1450 area before slowing as the market moves to the sentimental 1.1480-1.1520 area and possibly a bid tone.
Overnight News
CNY:
China raises emergency response level as flood toll rises – SCMP
AUD:
Australia plans new phase of income support, Frydenberg says – BBG
Frydenberg: Details of new phase of support announced July 23 – BBG
Frydenberg to announce more income support beyond September – BBG
AUD/CNY:
Australia warns citizens may face arbitrary detention in China – DPA
USD:
White House warns against Chinese investment, citing risk of further sanctions – BBG
Trump aides weigh proposals to undermine HKD Peg – BBG
Trump makes good on WHO pull-out
USD/GBP/HKD:
HSBC slumps as US weighs moves to punish HK banks – BBG
WHO:
Studying evidence on airborne virus transmission
GBP/CNY:
Britain jeopardising China relationship, says Huawei’s UK boss
USD/KRW:
Biegun: US Strongly supports inter-Korean cooperation – NPW
Biegun: US didn’t request meeting with N. Koreans – NPW
Biegun: Trump focused on eliminating nukes on Korean peninsula – NPW
JPY/AUD:
Japanese buy record Australian bonds amid slumping hedge costs – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
JPY Current account n.s.a. (MAY) A 1.177t | C 1.088t | P 0.263t
0545 CHF Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (JUN) A | C 3.4% | P 3.4%
0545 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN) A | C 3.6% | P 3.4%
0845 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
0900 EUR EU Economic Forecasts
1215 CAD Housing Starts (JUN) A | C 198.0k | P 193.5k
1400 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
1430 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -3.114m | P -7.195m
1745 EUR German BuBa Vice Pres. Buch Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Quiet opening and run into early morning in Tokyo before the market pushed away from the 1.2490; level to test the 1.2515 and a slow drift back through the 1.2500 level to range through to London around the figure level. London were steady sellers forcing the market steadily lower through the day with the market eventually reaching the 1.2465 areas before finding a base, the run to the NYK session saw the market recovering steadily with a tight channelled rally through to the 1.2535 level before pausing and running for a second time through to the 1.2590 level before running out of steam and drifting back to finish the day around the 1.2540 level.
- JPY: Opening just below the 107.40 level the market drifted through into the Tokyo session testing to the 107.25 level to make the low of the day before recovering and pushing through to the 107.40 level to hold through to the grey hour, early London buyers helped the market start a steady tight channelled climb through to the 107.80 level high before dipping in steps through to the close, with a long run holding the 107.55 area.
- AUD: Rising from the opening levels to test to the highs just short of the 0.7000 level to drop back to the 0.6960 area, no real expectations for interest rates to move saw the market slowly rise through the 0.6970 area into the grey hour and then drop back as London came in selling trading down through into the 0.6920 level, the move through to the London session saw the market recovering and a slow climb through to the 0.6970 before slowly drifting for the close.
- EUR: Early highs for the day into the Tokyo session moving off the 1.1310 level to test through the 1.1330 area before dipping back and holding the opening levels through to the grey hour before dipping steadily away through into the London opening and seller pushing the market through to the 1.1260 level for the low of the day, the move through to the NYK session saw a recovery of sorts but unable to regain the opening levels and eventually settling in for the close below the 1.1275 area.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD NZIER Business Confidence (Q2) A -63% | P -70%
JPY Household Spending MoM (MAY) A -0.1% | C 1.8% | P -6.2%
JPY Household Spending YoY (MAY) A -16.2% | C -12.2% | P -11.1%
AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (JUL) A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
EUR German Industrial Production MoM (MAY) A 7.8% | C 10.0% | P -17.9% | R -17.5%
GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM (JUN) A -0.1% | C -0.9% | P -0.2%
GBP Halifax House Price Index YoY (JUN) A 2.5% | P 2.6%
GBP Labour Productivity (Q1) A 0.6% | P -0.3% | R 0.4%
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAY) A 5.397m | C 4.850m | P 5.046m | R 4.99m
USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
USD FOMC Member Daily Speaks
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A 2.0m | P -8.156m
Best Regards
Andy
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