Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.202 | EURUSD 1.12851 | AUDUSD 0.69638 | NZDUSD 0.65716 | USDCAD 1.35845 | USDCHF 0.94053 | GBPUSD 1.26054 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12901 | 1.12698
USDJPY 107.263 | 107.001
GBPUSD 1.26109 | 1.25829
USDCHF 0.94206 | 0.94001
AUDUSD 0.69641 | 0.69364
NZDUSD 0.65731 | 0.65467
USDCAD 1.36051 | 1.35811
EURCHF 1.06185 | 1.06092
EURGBP 0.89590 | 0.89519
EURJPY 121.066 | 120.625
For Today
- GBP: Opening quietly and pushing through into the Tokyo session unchanged before dipping to just below the 1.2600 level to hold around the 1.2585 area through to the grey hours in a very dull session, Topside weakness through to the 1.2700 level if there is any momentum to be found, stronger offers appear around the 1.2700 level and those congestive offers are likely to continue through to the 1.2750 area before weakening a little until the 1.2800 level and the highs from last month come into view and break out stops likely on a strong push through the level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2550 area and weak stops likely to see the market continuing to fall through to the 1.2500 area before bids start to appear, with stronger bids on any attempt towards the 1.2450-00 area.
- JPY: A slight rise through the 107.25 level before dipping quickly through to the 107.05 area to find bids around the level and the market holding on each attempt towards the 107.00 for the time being, . topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside weak through the 107.00 level before opening for a fresh run at the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6960 level the market held through into the Tokyo session before some light fixing saw AUDJPY dipping and the AUD taking some of the pressure to test through to the 0.6935 level before finding a base through to the London session holding the 0.6840 area. Topside offers through the current level with increasing through the 0.7000 area and while there could be weak stops through the 0.7020 level the market is likely to see increasing congestion through the 0.7040-60 level before opening up for stronger offers into the 0.7080-0.7100 level and possibly stronger stops close too. Downside bids light through to the 0.6930 before some stronger bids start to move in however, while they may have some strength the numbers are limited and a clearance will open weakness down through into the 0.6840-50 area where limited sentimental bids hold sway with stronger bids then appearing on any test of the 0.6800-0.6780 area before weak stops appear.
- EUR: A slow rise through into the Tokyo session to push towards the 1.1290 area before drifting through to base along the 1.1270 area in very quiet trading to the grey hour, downside congestion through the 1.1200 level with weak stops likely on a strong move through the 1.1170 area opening up a quick test through the 1.1150 level before hitting stronger congestion through to the 1.1100 level from the beginning of the month and vulnerable to a stronger move through to 1.1050 before the market starts thickening for the sentimental 1.1000, Topside likely to increase through to the 1.1400 level with strong stops possible on a move through the 1.1420 area to open up a quick move through to the 1.1450 area before slowing as the market moves to the sentimental 1.1480-1.1520 area and possibly a bid tone.
Overnight News
NZD:
NZ Treasury sees private consumption contraction until 2Q 2021 – BBG
Kiwibank expects RBNZ will raise QE limit toward NZD100m – BBG
GBP/EUR:
UK has opted out of EU coronavirus vaccine programme, sources say – GUA
USD:
California opened antitrust probe into Google – Politico
CNY:
China state funds start selling in warning sign for stock rally – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM (JUN) A 16.3% | P 78.9%
0825 CNY New Loans (JUN) A | C 1,800.0b | P 1,480.0b
1230 USD Core PPI MoM (JUN) A | C 0.1% | P -0.1%
1230 USD PPI MoM (JUN) A | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
1230 CAD Employment Change A | C 700.0k | P 289.6k
1230 CAD Unemployment Rate (JUN) A | C 12.0% | P 13.7%
1700 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig count A | P 263
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2610 level and at the end of the day not that much difference, rising slightly into the Tokyo session to push above the 1;2625 area before slipping back and testing towards the figure before heading into the grey hour pushing through to the 1.2635 holding quietly into the London opening, early buyers tested the 1.2650 level before dipping back to the 1.2630 area for a limited period, again pushing to the upside to extend the highs on a run to the 1.2665 level to clear out some more of the congestion the market slipped back after the high and tested back to the 1.2630 area again before running for the third time in the NYK session to touch the 1.2670 level however, this time the failure saw a quick dip back to the 1.2600 level and a slow long run to the close to finish almost unchanged.
- JPY: A limited range for the day with the market stuck in the 107.20-30 area for the most part, a slight rise into the Tokyo session to test above the 107.30 level before dipping with fixing supply pushing the market down to the 107.20 area only to bounce back and set the early high above the 107.35 area, the market drifted from there into the London session moving back to the 107.20 area, a very narrow range through to late in London to push through to the high of the day around the 107.40 level before NYK moved in selling taking the market to the 107.20 level and triggered some weak stops on a dip through to hold the 107.10 level and recovered for the London close, with the market then dipping a little to the close.
- AUD: Quiet opening and a slow rise from the opening 0.6980 level to push a little above the 0.6990 area into Tokyo, having tested towards the 0.6995 level again the market dipped back to base around the 0.6970 area through to late in the session before rising to the 0.6990 level and holding through into the London session, early morning buying saw a limited round of buying to test just through the 70 cents level before again dipping back to the 0.6880 area and ranging quietly through to the NYK session before dipping away to the 0.6860 level to range around the level to the end of the session.
- EUR: Holding quietly through into the Tokyo session before slowly rising through to the 1.1370 level for the high of the day, a slow drift through to the grey hour saw early London selling the market back to the opening level and ranging through to NYK before further selling appeared through to the London close testing the 1.1285 area and a slow mover through to the close just below the area.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
GBP RICS House Price Balance (JUN) A -15% | C -25% | P -32%
NZD ANZ Business Confidence A -29.8 | P 34.4
AUD Home Loans MoM A -10.2% | P -4.4% | R -5.0%
CNY CPI MoM (JUN) A -0.1% | C -0.5% | P -0.8%
CNY CPI YoY (JUN) A 2.5% | C 2.5% | P 2.4%
CNY PPI YoY (JUN) A -3.0% | C -3.2% | P -3.7%
EUR German BuBa Vice Pres. Buch Speaks
CAD Housing Starts (JUN) A 211.7k | C 198k | P 193.5k | R 195.5k
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 1.314k | C 1,375k | P 1,427k | R 1.413k
Best Regards
Andy
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