Bracing for Fed Impact

Today’s report: Bracing for Fed Impact

Investor risk appetite got a healthy boost on Tuesday from the more positive wave of headlines relating to a US-China trade deal. This led to a big push in the equities markets, before things settled down. Meanwhile, the FX market was less inclined to make any major decisions ahead of today's anticipated Fed decision.

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Wake-up call

Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights

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EURUSD – technical overview

The major pair has extended its run of declines off the 2008 high, trading down to a fresh multi-month low in May. But with the downtrend looking exhausted, the prospect for a meaningful higher low is more compelling, with a higher low sought out above the multi-year low from 2017, ahead of the next major upside extension. Only a weekly close back below the psychological barrier at 1.1000 would compromise this outlook. Back above 1.1450 will strengthen the view.

  • R2 1.1290 – 14 June high – Strong
  • R1 1.1248 - 17 June high – Strong
  • S1 1.1160 - 3 June low – Medium
  • S2 1.1108 – 23 May/2019 low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overview

The Euro has been under intensified pressure since breaking down this past week, with setbacks extending on ECB Draghi talk of extra stimulus, and US Dollar demand from positive headlines relating to trade deal prospects between the US and China.  A shockingly weak German ZEW read and softer Eurozone inflation didn't do much to help the Euro's cause either. Still, dealers continue to report demand into dips, with medium term players more inclined to play the soft Dollar outlook side, when considering growing expectations for a Fed rate cut, and a US administration intent on weakening the Buck through its protectionist trade policy. President Trump clearly reflected his dissatisfaction with Draghi's words. Looking at today's calendar, we get some Eurozone construction output readings and more Draghi speak, though the clear focus of the day will be on the Fed policy decision.

EURUSD - Technical charts in detail

GBPUSD – technical overview

The major pair has stumbled since putting in an impressive recovery off the multi-month low in early January. Still, the broader recovery still helps to support the case for a longer-term developing uptrend off the 2016 low. Pullbacks are now viewed as corrective on the daily chart, with dips expected to be supported well ahead of the yearly low in the 1.2400s. Look for a weekly close back above 1.3000 to strengthen the outlook.

  • R2 1.2682 – 14 June high – Strong
  • R1 1.2606 – 17 June high – Medium
  • S1 1.2500 – Psychological – Strong
  • S2 1.2408 – 3 January/2019 low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound had already come under pressure last week, on the back of renewed concerns about the prospect for a hard Brexit in the Fall, with Boris Johnson at the helm. Johnson's talk on rehashing the Max-Fac proposal to the Irish border solution, has only made the market all the more nervous, as the EU has already said it will not be reopening the books as far as the deal goes. Meanwhile, the latest broad based run of US Dollar demand has been intense, with the Pound suffering on that side of the coin as well. Still, dealers continue to report demand into dips, with medium term players more inclined to play the soft Dollar outlook side, when considering growing expectations for a Fed rate cut, and a US administration intent on weakening the Buck through its protectionist trade policy. Looking at today's calendar, UK inflation readings and the Fed decision are the main standouts.

USDJPY – technical overview

Another topside failure has led to a sharp pullback, with the market unable to establish above a formidable resistance zone in the 112s. The recent drop back below 110.00 strengthens the bearish case, exposing the next major downside extension towards a retest of the January flash crash low in the 104s. Any rallies should now be well capped below 111.00, with only a break back above the yearly high at 112.40 to delay the bearish outlook.

  • R2 109.93 – 30 May high – Strong
  • R1 108.80 – 11 June high – Medium
  • S1 108.00 – Figure – Medium
  • S2 107.81 – 5 June low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

Overall, most of the movement in the major pair is being directed by investor appetite, with the Yen still tracking with traditional correlations. We had seen a fresh wave of optimism relating to the US-China trade deal outlook, which helped to prop the major pair on Tuesday, though President Trump also expressed dissatisfaction with Mario Draghi's comments about additional stimulus and how it would make for an even more unfair imbalance between the Eurozone and US. This proved to be somewhat offsetting, capping USDJPY into rallies. Looking ahead, the key focus on Wednesday will be the Fed decision.

EURCHF – technical overview

The latest breakdown below critical range support in the 1.1200 area, has opened the door for an acceleration of declines that targets a move back towards initial support in the form of the 1.1000 psychological barrier. The market is trading at its lowest level in nearly two years and at this point, it would take a daily close back above 1.1279 to take the immediate pressure off the downside.
  • R2 1.1279 – 28 May high – Strong
  • R1 1.1265 – 12 June high – Medium
  • S1 1.1120 – 3 June/2019 low – Medium
  • S2 1.1100 – Figure – Medium

EURCHF – fundamental overview

The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of sustained risk liquidation, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.

AUDUSD – technical overview

The market has been very well supported on dips since breaking down in early January to multi-year lows. The price action suggests we could be seeing the formation of a major base, though it would take a clear break back above 0.7023 to strengthen this outlook. In the interim, look for setbacks to continue to be well supported ahead of 0.6800.

  • R2 0.6939 – 13 June high – Strong
  • R1 0.6900 – Figure – Medium
  • S1 0.6832 – 18 June low – Medium
  • S2 0.6800 – Figure – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar has been weighed down over the past several sessions, on the back of a combination of softer Aussie data, calls for additional rate cuts as per this latest RBA Minutes, and broad US Dollar inflows from last week's solid US data. Still, overall, the Australian Dollar has been well supported into dips into the 0.6800 area from medium term accounts. These players are more focused on the impact of soft Dollar US trade policy and growing expectations for a Fed rate cut. There was some demand that also emerged on Tuesday, after the wave of positive headlines relating US-China trade deal prospects. Looking at the calendar, the key standout comes in the form of the Fed decision.

USDCAD – technical overview

Despite breaking to a fresh yearly high in recent sessions, overall, the market has entered a period of choppy consolidation in 2019. However, the longer-term structure remains constructive, with dips expected to be well supported for fresh upside back above the 2018/multi-month high at 1.3665. Back below the psychological barrier at 1.3000 would be required to delay the outlook.

  • R2 1.3500 – Psychological – Strong
  • R1 1.3433 - 18 June high – Medium
  • S1 1.3324 – 14 June low – Strong
  • S2 1.3239 – 10 June low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Plenty of selling in the Canadian Dollar of late, with the Loonie hit on a combination of variables including a more dovish Bank of Canada, depressed OIL prices, and this latest US Dollar demand from last Friday's solid US retail sales and industrial production prints. At the same time, setbacks have been finding support (USDCAD offers), with many medium to longer term accounts focused on emerging themes of ramped up soft US Dollar trade policy and increased prospects for a Fed rate cut. Looking at the calendar for today, we get Canada inflation readings, followed by the Fed policy decision.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Despite recent weakness, there's a case to be made for a meaningful low in place at 0.6425 (2018 low). As such, look for setbacks to be well supported above the latter, in anticipation of renewed upside, with only a close below to compromise the outlook. At the same time, a push back above 0.6700 will be required to take pressure off the downside.

  • R2 0.6612 – 11 June high – Medium
  • R1 0.6588 –  13 June high – Medium
  • S1 0.6489 – 14 June low – Medium
  • S2 0.6482 – 23 May/2019 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

Kiwi has done a good job holding up into dips, despite downside pressure from a run of softer local data, downgrades to NZ growth and a clear dovish shift in RBNZ policy that had resulted in a rate cut last month. The market has even held up well, averting a drop to a fresh 2019 low, despite a wave of broad based US Dollar demand and another disappointing GDT auction result. It seems the impact of US administration soft Dollar trade policy and increased odds for more than one rate cut from the Fed in 2019, are playing a bigger role as we head towards the second half of the year. Looking at the calendar, the key standout comes in the form of the Fed decision.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

There have been signs of a major longer term top, after an exceptional run over the past decade. Any rallies from here, are expected to be very well capped, in favour of renewed weakness targeting an eventual retest of strong longer-term previous resistance turned support in the form of the 2015 high at 2140. The initial level of major support comes in around 2600, with a break below to strengthen the outlook. A sustained move above 3000 would be required to delay.

  • R2 2960 – 2019/Record high – Strong
  • R1 2948 – 3 May high – Medium
  • S1 2801 – 5 June low – Medium
  • S2 2729 – 3 June low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Although we've seen the market extend to another record high in 2019, exhausted monetary policy tools post 2008 crisis suggest the prospect for a meaningful extension of this record run at this point in the cycle is not realistic. Meanwhile, expected renewed tension on the global trade front, should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment. We recommend keeping a much closer eye on the equities to ten year yield comparative going forward, as the movement here is something that could be a major stress to the financial markets looking out.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

There are signs that we could be seeing the formation of a more significant medium to longer-term structural shift that would be confirmed if a recovery out from sub-1200 levels can extend back through big resistance in the form of the 2016 high at 1375. In the interim, look for setbacks to be well supported, with only a close back below 1250 to compromise the constructive outlook.

  • R2 1363 – 2018 high – Strong
  • R1 1358 – 14 June/2019 high – Medium
  • S1 1320 – 11 June low – Medium
  • S2 1266 – 23 April/2019 low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.

BTCUSD – technical overview

The market has enjoyed a nice run since breaking out above a consolidation between Q4 2018 and Q1 2019., though the rally has resulted in extended technical readings after racing through the July 2018 peak at 8,500. Next key resistance comes in at the 10k psychological barrier. Overall, look for additional upside to be limited for now, to allow for these technical readings to unwind from stretched readings, before the market considers a meaningful push beyond 10k. Setbacks should ideally be supported ahead of 6,000.

  • R2 9,979 – April 2018 high – Strong
  • R1 9,480 – 18 June/2019 high – Medium
  • S1 7,447 – 6 June low – Strong
  • S2 7,000 – 17 May low – Strong

BTCUSD – fundamental overview

Bitcoin is enjoying a nice run in the second quarter of 2019, with the crypto asset racing to fresh yearly highs and trading towards 10k, on the back of increased adoption and a clear readiness for the investment community to welcome the new digital asset into the mainstream. The news of major tech giants now turning towards a world of crypto transactions has been a major boost over the past week, with a lot of the headlines surrounding moves over at Facebook.

BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail

ETHUSD – technical overview

The recovery has recently accelerated to a fresh 2019 high, surging through medium-term resistance at 255 and exposing next key resistance at 355. The upside break suggests the market is now looking to establish a meaningful base, in favour of bullish structural shift. Still, shorter-term, the run is looking stretched and before we see that test of 355, we could see rallies well capped, to allow for extended readings to unwind before the market gets going again. Setbacks should now be well supported into the 200 area.

  • R2 300 – Psychological – Strong
  • R1 289 – 31 May/2019 high – Medium
  • S1 226 – 10 June low – Medium
  • S2 200 – Psychological  – Strong

ETHUSD – fundamental overview

There has been a lot more buzz around adoption as the price of Bitcoin surges, with many mainstream names coming out in support of blockchain integration. Demand for web 3.0 applications is on the rise, and the blockchain with the biggest front end application potential is Ethereum. We've started to see some catch up as well, with ETH finding relative strength off cycle lows versus its older cousin.  At the same time, worry associated with fallout in the global economy, is worry that should weigh more heavily on risk correlated crypto assets like ETH. And considering the possibility an overextended Bitcoin runs into profit taking, there is risk we soon see a healthy adjustment back to the downside.

Peformance chart: Performance since weekly open v. US dollar

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