Next 24 hours: Profit taking, soft ISM inspire Dollar reversal
Today’s report: Not the decision the market was looking for
We come into Thursday with the market digesting the latest Fed policy decision, in which the central bank cut rates for the first time in over a decade, by way of a 25 basis point adjustment. Still, while a lot of what the Fed delivered was expected, it was clear the market was looking for something even more dovish than what it got.
Wake-up call
- Euro tanks
- Brexit overshadowed
- two-way flow
- SNB policy
- more pressure
- Canada GDP
- yield differentials
- less excited
- Macro players
- Increased exposure
- traditional markets
Suggested reading
- Not Start of Long Series of Moves, C. Condon, Bloomberg (July 31, 2019)
- How Stock Buybacks Undermine Healthy Capitalism, G. Jabusch, Worth (July 30, 2019)
Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
Choose pair:
EURUSD – technical overview
The major pair has extended its run of declines off the 2008 high, trading down to a fresh multi-month. But with the downtrend looking exhausted, the prospect for a meaningful higher low is more compelling, with a higher low sought out above the multi-year low from 2017, ahead of the next major upside extension. Only a weekly close back below the psychological barrier at 1.1000 would compromise this outlook. Back above 1.1412 will strengthen the view.EURUSD – fundamental overview
The Euro sunk to a fresh 2019 and multi-month low in the aftermath of the Fed policy decision, with market participants digesting the event risk and walking away with a feeling of a hawkish cut. While the Fed cut 25 basis points and left the door open for additional rate cuts, it stopped short of delivering the desired dovishness heading in. This resulted in yield differentials moving back in the Buck's favour, which in turn, fueled broad US Dollar demand. Looking ahead, Thursday's calendar features German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, and US releases in the form of initial jobless claims, ISM manufacturing and construction spending.EURUSD - Technical charts in detail
GBPUSD – technical overview
The recent breakdown below 1.2400 has opened the door for a fresh downside extension towards the major cycle low from 2016 in the 1.1800s. Longer-term studies continue to suggest the market should be looking to start turning back up, though at this stage, the pressure remains on the downside and it will take a break back above 1.2400 to take the immediate pressure off the downside.GBPUSD – fundamental overview
Brexit headlines to a backseat to Fed event risk on Wednesday, though the Pound remained weighed down, after the Fed delivered a policy decision that seemed to let down market expectations. Indeed, the Fed did go ahead and cut rates 25 basis points. But failure to communicate a clearer intent to commit to additional accommodation, was enough to trigger a wave of broad based US Dollar demand, as yield differentials swung back in the Buck's favour. Looking ahead, Thursday's calendar features the BOE policy decision, UK manufacturing PMIs, and US releases in the form of initial jobless claims, ISM manufacturing and construction spending.USDJPY – technical overview
The longer-term downtrend remains firmly intact, with the major pair slowly gravitating back towards a retest of major support in the form of the 2018 and 2019 lows respectively, down in the 104s. Any rallies should now be well capped below 110.00, though only a break back above the yearly high at 112.40 would compromise the bearish outlook.USDJPY – fundamental overview
Broad Dollar demand in the aftermath of a Fed decision that was unable to match the dovish expectations of the market, was what was behind the move higher in the major pair on Wednesday. Still, upside was capped on account of offsetting flow from a downturn in US equities. Looking ahead, Thursday's calendar features US releases in the form of initial jobless claims, ISM manufacturing and construction spending.EURCHF – technical overview
The recent breakdown below critical range support in the 1.1200 area, has opened the door for the next wave of declines into the 1.1000 area. The market is trading at its lowest levels in two years, and at this point, it would take a daily close back above 1.1173 to take the immediate pressure off the downside. A weekly close below 1.1000 opens the door for the next major downside extension towards 1.0600.EURCHF – fundamental overview
The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of sustained risk liquidation, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.AUDUSD – technical overview
The market has been very well supported on dips since breaking down in early January to multi-year lows. The price action suggests we could be seeing the formation of a major base, though it would take a clear break back above 0.7100 to strengthen this outlook. In the interim, look for setbacks to continue to be well supported ahead of 0.6800.AUDUSD – fundamental overview
Last week, we got some dovish speak out from RBA Lowe, which had weighed on the Australian Dollar. On Wednesday, Aussie came under additional pressure, after the market's initial read of the Fed decision was that it was less dovish than what had been expected. Setbacks in US equities post FOMC also did nothing to help the risk correlated commodity currency's cause. Looking ahead, Thursday's calendar features Aussie and China manufacturing reads, along with US releases in the form of initial jobless claims, ISM manufacturing and construction spending.USDCAD – technical overview
Despite the recent breakdown to a yearly low, the longer-term structure remains constructive, with dips expected to be well supported for renewed upside, eventually back above the 2018/multi-month high at 1.3665. At this point, only a weekly close below the psychological barrier at 1.3000 would compromise this outlook.USDCAD – fundamental overview
The Canadian Dollar extended its run of declines out from a recent 2019 high against the Buck, despite Wednesday's better than expected Canada GDP print. While downside pressure in the price of OIL and a dip in Canada industrial product prices may have taken away some of the Canadian Dollar's momentum, most of the selloff in the Loonie came post FOMC decision, which had the market walking away with a less dovish communication than it was expecting from the Fed. Looking ahead, Thursday's calendar features Canada manufacturing PMIs and US releases in the form of initial jobless claims, ISM manufacturing and construction spending.NZDUSD – technical overview
Despite recent weakness, there's a case to be made for a meaningful low in place at 0.6425 (2018 low). As such, look for setbacks to be well supported above the latter, in anticipation of renewed upside. A confirmed higher low is in place at 0.6568 and only back below this level would delay the constructive outlook.NZDUSD – fundamental overview
The New Zealand Dollar has come under a lot of pressure in recent weeks, giving back most of what had been an impressive recovery. But downside momentum from last week's dovish RBNZ calls, has now been followed up with a Fed decision that wasn't as dovish as the market was looking for. This has resulted in additional declines, with yield differentials moving further in the Buck's favour. Setbacks in US equities post FOMC also did nothing to help the risk correlated commodity currency's cause. Looking ahead, Thursday's calendar features China manufacturing reads, along with US releases in the form of initial jobless claims, ISM manufacturing and construction spending.US SPX 500 – technical overview
There have been signs of a major longer term top, after an exceptional run over the past decade. Any rallies from here, are expected to be very well capped, in favour of renewed weakness targeting an eventual retest of strong longer-term previous resistance turned support in the form of the 2015 high at 2140. The initial level of major support comes in at 2729, with a break below to strengthen the outlook. A monthly close above 3000 would be required to compromise the outlook calling for a top.US SPX 500 – fundamental overview
Although we've seen the market extending to fresh record highs in 2019, on the back of the Fed policy reversal, with so little room for additional easing, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for a meaningful extension of this record run, on easy money policy incentives, should no longer be as enticing to investors as it once was. Meanwhile, expected renewed tension on the global trade front, should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment. We recommend keeping a much closer eye on the equities to ten year yield comparative going forward, as the movement here is something that could be a major stress to the financial markets looking out.GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview
The recent breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, and suggests the market is in the early stages of a bullish move that follows a multi-month consolidation. The next major level of resistance comes in around 1500, while in the interim, look for any setbacks to be well supported above 1400.GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview
The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.BTCUSD – technical overview
Overall, look for additional upside to be limited for now, as the market continues to correct and consolidate, in the aftermath of a major surge in the second quarter of 2019. Any setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 7,000, with an eventual higher low sought out in favour of a bullish continuation back above the 2019 high at 13,748. Only a weekly close below 7,000 would compromise the constructive outlook.BTCUSD – fundamental overview
Bitcoin enjoyed a spectacular run in the second quarter of 2019, racing to fresh yearly highs, surging towards 14k, on the back of increased adoption and more openness from the traditional investor community. The news of tech giants now turning towards the world of crypto has invited a higher profile that should be a net positive in the long run. At the same time, it also exposes the ethos to fresh critique from higher ups at the central bank and government levels. The market is also going through a period of technical adjustment after the fierce run up, though we anticipate demand from institutional players into dips.BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail
ETHUSD – technical overview
The market is in the process of a major correction after a surge in the second quarter of 2019. Look for setbacks to be well supported above of previous resistance turned support at 170 on a weekly close basis, in favour of the next major higher low and bullish resumption back towards and through the 2019 high up at 363. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 170 would compromise the longer term constructive outlook.ETHUSD – fundamental overview
There was a lot more buzz around adoption following the Q2 2019 Bitcoin surge, with many mainstream names coming out in support of blockchain integration. Demand for web 3.0 applications is on the rise, and Ethereum is the blockchain with the biggest front end application potential. At the same time, profit taking in the aftermath of the rapid Q2 appreciation has triggered a healthy period of correction, while critique of the space from the likes of President Trump and Fed Chair Powell, along with worry associated with fallout in the global economy, are stories that could keep the more risk correlated crypto asset weighed down in the second half of the year.