Next 24 hours: Euro looking for stimulus pop
Today’s report: What will be with financial markets this week?
We enter the new week with currencies mostly back on the offer against the US Dollar, though ultimately, still confined to familiar ranges, with no clear insight into the next big move. The Pound was the most interesting currency in the previous week, outperforming its peers, even trading higher against the Buck.
- current account
- solid data
- global sentiment
- SNB policy
- US-China trade
- OIL movement
- producer prices
- less encouraged
- hard asset
- faces headwinds
- traditional markets
- The Surge in Anti-Fragile Assets, L. Gave, Evergreen Gavekal (August 16, 2019)
- Bond Market All-In on Recession Forecast, J. Picerno, Capital SpectatorÂ (August 16, 2019)
Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
EURUSD â€“ technical overviewThe major pair has extended its run of declines off the 2008 high, trading down to a fresh multi-month. But with the downtrend looking exhausted, the prospect for a meaningful higher low is more compelling, with a higher low sought out above the multi-year low from 2017, ahead of the next major upside extension. Only a weekly close back below the psychological barrier at 1.1000 would compromise this outlook. Back above 1.1412 will strengthen the view.
EURUSD â€“ fundamental overviewData out of the Eurozone was overwhelmingly soft in the previous week, which served as a major drag on the single currency. On Friday, it was trade data that disappointed after the Eurozone surplus came in below forecast. It was reported that Angela Merkel and Olaf Scholz are 'ready to run a deficit, if Germany goes into recession. Looking ahead, Monday's calendar is exceptionally thin, with only the Eurozone current account and inflation reads standing out.
EURUSD - Technical charts in detail
GBPUSD â€“ technical overviewThe recent breakdown below 1.2400 has opened the door for a fresh downside extension towards the major cycle low from 2016 in the 1.1800s. Longer-term studies continue to suggest the market should be looking to start turning back up, though at this stage, the pressure remains on the downside and it will take a break back above 1.2400 to take the immediate pressure off the downside and revive the outlook supporting a longer-term base.
GBPUSD â€“ fundamental overviewThe Pound is coming off a solid week of performance despite ongoing fears associated with the prospect of no-deal Brexit. Upbeat UK economic data has served as a welcome distraction, after the market took in higher earnings, above forecast inflation and better than expected retail sales. As far as Brexit updates go, UK PM Johnson is scheduled to meet with French President Macron and German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin this week. Looking at the calendar, absence of first tier data on the Monday calendar will leave the focus on Brexit updates and other big picture macro themes.
USDJPY â€“ technical overviewThe longer-term downtrend remains firmly intact, with the major pair slowly gravitating back towards a retest of major support in the form of the 2018 and 2019 lows respectively, down in the 104s. Rallies should continue to be well capped below 110.00. Below the 2018 low at 104.63 opens the door for the next major downside extension towards the 2016 low at 99.00.
USDJPY â€“ fundamental overviewThe Yen is coming off a quiet end of the previous week, but continues to trade off of traditional market themes associated with global sentiment. Looking ahead, Mondayâ€™s calendar isnâ€™t all that active. The market will digest the latest trade data out of Japan and focus on bigger picture macro themes.
EURCHF â€“ technical overviewThe market is trading at its lowest levels in two years, and at this point, it would take a daily close back above 1.1173 to take the immediate pressure off the downside. The latest breakdown below 1.1000 opens the door for the next major downside extension towards 1.0600.
EURCHF â€“ fundamental overviewThe SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of sustained risk liquidation, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.
AUDUSD â€“ technical overviewThe market has been under pressure over the past several months, but has also been well supported on dips. The price action suggests we could be seeing the formation of a major base, though it would take a clear break back above 0.7100 to strengthen this outlook. In the interim, look for setbacks to continue to be well supported above 0.6700 on a weekly close basis.
AUDUSD â€“ fundamental overviewAussie employment data came in solid in the latter half of the previous week and helped to prop up the commodity currency, while a mild recovery in US equities added additional support. Still, with so much tension around global trade and the outlook for China, the Australian Dollar isn't comfortable making any big runs to the topside. Looking ahead, Mondayâ€™s calendar isnâ€™t all that active with respect to first tier data reads and the market will focus on bigger picture macro themes.
USDCAD â€“ technical overviewDespite the recent breakdown to a yearly low, the longer-term structure remains constructive, with dips expected to be well supported for renewed upside, eventually back above the 2018/multi-month high at 1.3665. At this point, only a weekly close below the psychological barrier at 1.3000 would compromise this outlook.
USDCAD â€“ fundamental overviewTrading activity in the Canadian Dollar has been rather subdued in recent sessions, on account of a consolidations in OIL and US equities. Canada existing home sales did however come in better than expected in the latter half of the previous week, which may have helped to prop the Loonie. Looking ahead, absence of first tier data out of Canada or the US, will leave the market tracking bigger picture macro drivers and themes.
NZDUSD â€“ technical overviewDespite recent weakness, there's a case to be made for a meaningful low, with the market trading back down to medium-term cyclical low territory in the 0.6300-0.6400 area. As such, look for setbacks to be well supported in the days ahead, in anticipation of renewed upside. Only a weekly close below 0.6300 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6600 will take the immediate pressure off the downside.
NZDUSD â€“ fundamental overviewThe RBNZ put out a research note highlighting the fact that monetary policy today is still as effective as it was before the financial markets crisis of 2008. The central bank said their models showed a 25 bps cut would lead to an inflation jump and GDP growth the same today as it did back then.Â Looking ahead, the market will be digesting the latest producer prices data out of New Zealand, while focusing on bigger picture macro themes in the absence of other first tier data reads on the day.
US SPX 500 â€“ technical overviewThere have been signs of a major longer term top, after an exceptional run over the past decade. Any rallies from here, are expected to be very well capped, in favour of renewed weakness targeting an eventual retest of strong longer-term previous resistance turned support in the form of the 2015 high at 2140. The initial level of major support comes in at 2729, with a break below to strengthen the outlook. A monthly close above 3000 would be required to compromise the outlook calling for a top.
US SPX 500 â€“ fundamental overviewAlthough we've seen the market extending to fresh record highs in 2019, on the back of the Fed policy reversal, with so little room for additional easing, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for a meaningful extension of this record run, on easy money policy incentives, should no longer be as enticing to investors as it once was. Meanwhile, expected renewed tension on the global trade front, should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment. We recommend keeping a much closer eye on the equities to ten year yield comparative going forward, as the movement here is something that could be a major stress to the financial markets looking out.
GOLD (SPOT) â€“ technical overviewThe recent breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, and suggests the market is in the early stages of a bullish move that follows a multi-month consolidation. The next major level of resistance comes in around 1600, while in the interim, look for any setbacks to be well supported above 1400.
GOLD (SPOT) â€“ fundamental overviewThe yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips withÂ solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and trade war threats.Â All of this should keep the commodity well supported, withÂ many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.
BTCUSD â€“ technical overviewOverall, look for additional upside to be limited for now, as the market continues to correct and consolidate, in the aftermath of a major surge in the second quarter of 2019. Any setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 7,000, with an eventual higher low sought out in favour of a bullish continuation back above the 2019 high at 13,748. Only a weekly close below 7,000 would compromise the constructive outlook.
BTCUSD â€“ fundamental overviewBitcoin enjoyed a spectacular run in the second quarter of 2019, racing to fresh yearly highs, surging towards 14k, on the back of increased adoption and more openness from the traditional investor community. The news of tech giants now turning towards the world of crypto has invited a higher profile that should be a net positive in the long run. At the same time, it also exposes the ethos to fresh critique from higher ups at the central bank and government levels. The market is also going through a period of technical adjustment after the fierce run up, though we anticipate continued demand from institutional players starved for yield in a world where global equities are increasingly vulnerable.
BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail
ETHUSD â€“ technical overviewThe market is in the process of a major correction after a surge in the second quarter of 2019. Look for setbacks to be well supported above of previous resistance turned support at 170 on a weekly close basis, in favour of the next major higher low and bullish resumption back towards and through the 2019 high up at 363. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 170 would compromise the longer term constructive outlook.
ETHUSD â€“ fundamental overviewThere was a lot more buzz around adoption following the Q2 2019 Bitcoin surge, with many mainstream names coming out in support of blockchain integration. Demand for web 3.0 applications is on the rise, and Ethereum is the blockchain with the biggest front end application potential. At the same time, profit taking in the aftermath of the rapid Q2 appreciation has triggered a healthy period of correction, while critique of the space from the likes of President Trump and Fed Chair Powell, along with worry associated with fallout in the global economy, are stories that could keep the more risk correlated crypto asset weighed down in the second half of the year. Risk off in the global economy is expected to result in Eth underperformance relative to Bitcoin.