Next 24 hours: Farage injects bid into Pound
Today’s report: Weekend news results in risk off open
Weekend news out of the White House that reports of the President willingness to roll back tariffs are incorrect, have definitely given risk markets a shot into the new week. Most of the calendar spotlight will be over in the UK, where we get a healthy batch of economic data. US markets will be thin on account of the Veterans Day holiday.
- EURUSDwholesale sales due
- UK GDP
- risk sentiment
- tougher battle
- trade update
- OIL price
- US-China hiccups
- trade policy
- hard asset
- institutional demand
- traditional markets
Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
EURUSD – technical overviewThe downtrend off the 2018 high is looking exhausted and the prospect for a meaningful higher low is more compelling. A higher low is now sought out above the multi-year low from 2017, ahead of the next major upside extension. Only a weekly close back below 1.0800 would compromise this outlook. Back above 1.1412 will strengthen the view.
- R2 1.1180 – 21 October high – Strong
- R1 1.1093 - 6 November high – Medium
- S1 1.1000 - Psychological – Strong
- S2 1.0991 – 15 October low – Strong
EURUSD – fundamental overviewThere hasn't been a whole lot going on with the Euro through this latest period of selling, though last week's Eurozone Commission grown and inflation downgrades and softer German industrial production data have weighed on the single currency. Still, dealers continue to report healthy demand into dips. Looking ahead, we get German wholesale prices, and a speech from the Bundesbank's Balz. US markets will be thin on account of Veterans Day.
EURUSD - Technical charts in detail
GBPUSD – technical overviewThe market has seen a recovery out from the lowest levels since 2016, with the price recovering back above the daily Ichimoku cloud to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Ultimately, only back below the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud would compromise the more constructive outlook for the major pair. Next key resistance comes in the form of the 2019 high from March around 1.3380. Setbacks should ideally be well supported ahead of 1.2400.
- R2 1.3013 – 21 october high – Strong
- R1 1.2878 – 7 October high – Medium
- S1 1.2769 – 8 November low – Strong
- S2 1.2700 – Figure – Medium
GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has come under pressure in recent sessions, but is also showing an ability to hold up well in the face of the latest Moody's downgrade of the UK's sovereign credit rating outlook. Looking ahead, we get a healthy batch of data out of the UK, highlighted by GDP, trade, industrial production and manufacturing production.
USDJPY – technical overviewThe longer-term downtrend remains firmly intact, with the major pair recently taking out major support in the form of the 2018 and 2019 lows respectively. Rallies should continue to be well capped below 110.00 in favour of the next major downside extension towards the 2016 low at 99.00.
- R2 110.00 – Psychological – Strong
- R1 109.49 – 7 November high – Strong
- S1 108.65 – 7 November low – Medium
- S2 107.89 – 1 November low – Strong
USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe BOJ left purchases unchanged in today's regular bond purchase operations. There was no reaction to the BOJ Summary of Opinions. Japan machine orders were a miss, while the current account surplus narrowed by more than expected. Updates from the US-China trade front continue to play a major role here, with the latest setbacks weighing on the major pair. Looking ahead, the calendar is super thin on account of the US Veterans Day holiday.
EURCHF – technical overviewThe market is attempting to recover out from its lowest levels in two years, with the recent break back above 1.1000 taking the immediate pressure off the downside and opening the door for a larger correction back towards next key resistance at 1.1160. Overall however, the medium-term picture continues to favour the downside, and the market could have a hard time pushing much beyond that solid previous support turned resistance around 1.1160.
- R2 1.1173 – 2 July high – Strong
- R1 1.1060 – 17 October high – Medium
- S1 1.0871 – 9 October low – Medium
- S2 1.0811 – 4 September/2019 low – Strong
EURCHF – fundamental overviewThe SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of sustained risk liquidation, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.
AUDUSD – technical overviewThe market has been under pressure over the past several months, but has also been well supported on dips. The price action suggests we could be seeing the formation of a major base, though it would take a clear break back above 0.7100 to strengthen this outlook. In the interim, look for setbacks to continue to be well supported above 0.6700 on a weekly close basis.
- R2 0.7083 – 19 July high – Strong
- R1 0.6930 – 31 October high – Strong
- S1 0.6809 – 25 October low – Medium
- S2 0.6710 – 10 October low – Strong
AUDUSD – fundamental overviewAussie has been feeling the stress associated with the latest setbacks in the US-China trade negotiations and will continue to be sensitive to developments on this front. Offers have come in from HFTs and leveraged spec accounts. Looking ahead, the calendar is super thin on account of the US Veterans Day holiday.
USDCAD – technical overviewThe longer-term structure remains constructive, with dips expected to be well supported for renewed upside, eventually back above the 2018/multi-month high at 1.3665. At this point, only a weekly close below the psychological barrier at 1.3000 would compromise this outlook.
- R2 1.3300 – Figure – Strong
- R1 1.3238 - 8 November high – Medium
- S1 1.3172 – 8 November low – Medium
- S2 1.3115 – 5 November low – Strong
USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar is coming out of a tough Friday session in which it needed to contend with a softer batch of data. Canada payrolls dropped, housing starts missed, and building permits slid by more than expected. Looking ahead, the calendar is super thin on account of the US Veterans Day holiday. There is no first tier data scheduled on the Canada docket.
NZDUSD – technical overviewDespite recent weakness, there's a case to be made for a meaningful bottom, with the market rallying out from longer-term cycle low area around 0.6200. As such, look for setbacks to be well supported in the days ahead, in anticipation of a continued recovery. Only a weekly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6451 will strengthen the outlook and take the immediate pressure off the downside.
- R2 0.6466 – 4 November high – Strong
- R1 0.6400 – Figure – Medium
- S1 0.6322 – 8 November low – Medium
- S2 0.6241 – 16 October low – Strong
NZDUSD – fundamental overviewKiwi has held up well in the face of a risk off start to the week, with the currency feeling better about reduced prospects associated with an upcoming RBNZ rate cut. NZIER's monetary policy shadow board has been responsible for the sentiment shift, after recommending the central bank should keep rates unchanged this week. This news has also overshadowed a disappointing Kiwi retail credit card spending read. Looking ahead, the calendar is super thin on account of the US Veterans Day holiday.
US SPX 500 – technical overviewThere have been signs of a major longer term top, after an exceptional run over the past decade. Any rallies from here, are expected to be very well capped, in favour of renewed weakness targeting an eventual retest of strong longer-term previous resistance turned support in the form of the 2015 high at 2140. The initial level of major support comes in at 2854, with a break below to strengthen the outlook. A monthly close above 3100 would be required to compromise the outlook.
- R2 3100 – Psychological – Strong
- R1 3097 – 7 November/Record high – Medium
- S1 2854 – 3 October low – Medium
- S2 2777 – 6 August low – Strong
US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewAlthough we've seen the market extending to fresh record highs in 2019, on the back of the Fed policy reversal, with so little room for additional easing, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for a meaningful extension of this record run, on easy money policy incentives, should no longer be as enticing to investors as it once was. Meanwhile, tension on the global trade front should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment despite any signs that would suggest otherwise. We recommend keeping a much closer eye on the equities to ten year yield comparative going forward, as the movement here is something that could be a major stress to the financial markets looking out.
GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, and suggests the market is in the early stages of a bullish move that follows a multi-month consolidation. The next major level of resistance comes in around 1600, while in the interim, look for any setbacks to be well supported above 1400.
- R2 1558 – 4 September/2019 high – Strong
- R1 1536 – 24 September high – Medium
- S1 1456 – 8 November low – Medium
- S2 1400 – Psychological – Strong
GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.
BTCUSD – technical overviewThe market continues to consolidate in the aftermath of a major surge in the second quarter of 2019. However, any setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 7,000, with an higher low sought out in favour of a bullish continuation back above the 2019 high and towards the record high from late 2017 further up. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 7,000 would compromise the constructive outlook.
- R2 10,468– 26 October high – Strong
- R1 9,612 – 4 November high – Medium
- S1 8,672 – 8 November high – Medium
- S2 7,326 – 23 October low – Strong
BTCUSD – fundamental overviewBitcoin is going through a period of technical adjustment after the fierce Q2 run up, though we anticipate continued demand from institutional players starved for yield in a world where global equities are increasingly vulnerable. Plenty of demand is reported on dips down towards $7,000.
BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail
ETHUSD – technical overviewThe market is in the process of a major correction after a surge in the second quarter of 2019. Look for setbacks to be well supported above of previous resistance turned support at 100 on a weekly close basis, in favour of the next major higher low and bullish resumption back towards and through the 2019 high up at 363. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 100 would compromise the outlook.
- R2 225 – 19 September high – Strong
- R1 200 – Psychological – Medium
- S1 177 – 1 November low – Medium
- S2 153 – 23 October low – Strong
ETHUSD – fundamental overviewProfit taking in the aftermath of the rapid Q2 appreciation has triggered a healthy period of correction and consolidation, while critique of the space from the likes of President Trump and Fed Chair Powell, along with worry associated with fallout in the global economy, are stories that could continue to keep the more risk correlated crypto asset weighed down into the end of the year. Risk off in the global economy is expected to result in ETH underperformance relative to Bitcoin.
- Look Within for China’s True Growth Threat, C. Balding, Bloomberg (November 11, 2019)
- Could a Digital Currency Like Libra Ever Replace the Dollar?, B. Greeley, FT (October 31, 2019)