Today’s report: Risk off flow in light holiday trade
Trading won’t get back to fuller conditions until Tuesday, when the bulk of market participants return from the Easter break. As the week gets going, there has been a fresh wave of risk off flow, with investors back to worrying about the massive fallout to the global economy from the coronavirus.
Wake-up call
- Fed QE
- UK GDP
- purchases unchanged
- EURCHFSNB policy runs into tough times
- Aussie unemployment
- production cut
- risk off
- Investor confidence
- hard asset
- macro players
- more exposed
Suggested reading
- More Shock and Awe Stimulus May Be Needed, M. El-Erian, Bloomberg (April 13, 2020)
- When Will the UK Lockdown End?, S. Payne, Financial Times (April 10, 2020)
Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
Choose pair:
EURUSD – technical overview
A higher low is now sought out above the multi-year low from 2017, ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for the major pair to be well supported into dips ahead of the next big run towards the 2019 high at 1.1570. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 1.0700 would compromise this outlook.EURUSD – fundamental overview
Markets are mostly shutdown on this Easter Monday and trading conditions won't be getting back to normal until Tuesday. Overall, there is a risk off tone, as coronavirus fallout continues to weigh on sentiment. But currencies remain supported against the US Dollar given the jaw dropping stimulus from the Federal Reserve and US government. Monday's economic calendar is all but empty given the holiday trade.EURUSD - Technical charts in detail
GBPUSD – technical overview
The market has rebounded sharply, after collapsing to a +30 year low below 1.1500. This supports the longer-term constructive outlook, with a major bottom sought out ahead of the start to a big run to the topside. Look for the major pair to hold up above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis for confirmation.GBPUSD – fundamental overview
Markets are mostly shutdown on this Easter Monday and trading conditions won't be getting back to normal until Tuesday. Overall, there is a risk off tone, as coronavirus fallout continues to weigh on sentiment. But currencies remain supported against the US Dollar given the jaw dropping stimulus from the Federal Reserve and US government. UK PM Johnson has been released from hospital, but isn't yet fit for work. The Times reported UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak saying that UK GDP could slump between 25% to 30% in Q2, as some UK cabinet ministers called for lockdown restrictions to be eased. The UK Parliament will reconvene on April 21st in what will likely be virtual sessions. Monday's economic calendar is all but empty given the holiday trade.USDJPY – technical overview
We're seeing a pickup in volatility in the major pair, with the market swinging wildly through the upper and lower bound of a massive triangle. Still, there is no clear direction insight, with rallies well capped above 110.00 and dips well supported below 104.00.USDJPY – fundamental overview
Markets are mostly shutdown on this Easter Monday and trading conditions won't be getting back to normal until Tuesday. Overall, there is a risk off tone, as coronavirus fallout continues to weigh on sentiment. But currencies remain supported against the US Dollar given the jaw dropping stimulus from the Federal Reserve and US government. As expected, the BOJ left purchases unchanged on Monday. Looking ahead, Monday's economic calendar is all but empty given the holiday trade.EURCHF – technical overview
The market remains very well capped into offers and the medium-term picture continues to favour the downside. A break back above 1.0710 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Technicals are however looking extended and the market should be well supported ahead of 1.0500.EURCHF – fundamental overview
The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook, and from a US administration that has put Switzerland on its currency manipulator watchlist. Any signs of risk liquidation in 2020, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.AUDUSD – technical overview
Technical studies are in the process of unwinding, after the market traded down to its lowest levels since 2003. There is evidence of a longer-term bottom, though the market will need to break back above the December 2019 high at 0.7032 to take the immediate pressure off the downside.AUDUSD – fundamental overview
Markets are mostly shutdown on this Easter Monday and trading conditions won't be getting back to normal until Tuesday. Overall, there is a risk off tone, as coronavirus fallout continues to weigh on sentiment. But currencies remain supported against the US Dollar given the jaw dropping stimulus from the Federal Reserve and US government. Australian Treasurer Frydenberg said yesterday in a ABC interview that he expects Australia's unemployment rate to climb and for economic growth to slow down significantly as the result of social distancing restrictions to combat Covid-19. Looking ahead, Monday's economic calendar is all but empty given the holiday trade.USDCAD – technical overview
An intense market rally has stalled out just ahead of the 2016 high. At this stage, there is risk for a more meaningful period of correction, with potential for setbacks to extend back down towards previous resistance turned support, in the form of the 2018 high.USDCAD – fundamental overview
The Canadian Dollar has continued to extend its recovery run against the Buck, with the Loonie managing to mostly shrug off a discouraging Canada data and a resumption of risk off flow. It seems the Loonie has been feeling better about OIL production cut news, and the Fed's commitment to unlimited QE. Monday's economic calendar is all but empty given the holiday trade.NZDUSD – technical overview
There's a case to be made for a meaningful bottom, with the market looking quite extended after dipping below major psychological support at 0.5500. As such, look for setbacks to continue to be well supported in the days ahead, in anticipation of additional upside. Only a weekly close below 0.5500 would give reason for rethink.NZDUSD – fundamental overview
Markets are mostly shutdown on this Easter Monday and trading conditions won't be getting back to normal until Tuesday. Overall, there is a risk off tone, as coronavirus fallout continues to weigh on sentiment. But currencies remain supported against the US Dollar given the jaw dropping stimulus from the Federal Reserve and US government. As expected, the BOJ left purchases unchanged on Monday. Looking ahead, Monday's economic calendar is all but empty given the holiday trade.US SPX 500 – technical overview
Setbacks have been intense as the market puts in a longer-term top. The market has collapsed through the 2018 low, with the next major support coming in at the 2016 low around 1800. Extended readings have led to an overdue corrective bounce, but rallies should now be well capped ahead of 2900.US SPX 500 – fundamental overview
Although we've seen attempts at recovery in response to unlimited QE from the Fed and massive US stimulus, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for additional runs to the topside, on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, tension on the global trade front, geopolitical risk, and ongoing worry associated with coronavirus fallout, should weigh more heavily on investor sentiment in 2020.GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview
The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, and suggests the market is in the early stages of a bullish move that follows a multi-month consolidation. The next major level of resistance comes in around 1800 (measured move extension target), while in the interim, look for any setbacks to be well supported above 1500.GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview
The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, coronavirus fallout, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.BTCUSD – technical overview
Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of the 2018 low, with a higher low sought out in favour of a bullish continuation back above the 2019 high and towards the record high from late 2017 further up. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 5,000 would compromise the constructive outlook. Back above 10,500 further encourages the bullish prospect.BTCUSD – fundamental overview
Bitcoin has felt the impact of global macro pressures, with the currency falling victim to broad based risk liquidation in Q1 2020. However, despite the recent slide, there continues to be good demand from players looking out to the medium and longer term, who see Bitcoin as a safe haven, store of value asset.BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail
ETHUSD – technical overview
The market is in the process of attempting to establish a meaningful base after stalling out in the latter half of 2019. Look for setbacks to be well supported above the 2018 low, in favour of another big bounce, eventually back towards and through the 2019 high up at 363.ETHUSD – fundamental overview
While there is plenty of Ether demand built up, with so much optimism around prospects for the blockchain, given all of the development going on in the decentralised finance space, macroeconomics will likely play a negative role in 2020, with Ether expected to underperform in a mostly risk off backdrop, in light of Ethereum's higher sensitivity and correlation with risk themes.