Market more focused on recovery than trade tension

GBPUSD – technical overview

The market has rebounded sharply, after collapsing to a +30 year low below 1.1500. This supports the longer-term constructive outlook, with a major bottom sought out ahead of the start to a big run to the topside back through 1.3000. Look for the major pair to hold up well into setbacks, and ultimately above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis for confirmation.

• R2 1.2648 – 8 May high – Strong
• R1 1.2363– 26 May high – Medium
• S1 1.2161 – 22 May low – Medium
• S2 1.2075 – 18 May low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

There hasn't been much to update as far as UK related activity goes. We had seen the Pound better bid earlier this week on the better outlook for EU-UK trade negotiations. It was reported that the UK government will close its coronavirus wage support program to new applicants. Meanwhile, the IPPR environmental justice committee said the UK could create 850,000 new green energy jobs by 2030 through the use of recovery stimulus to 'fast-track decarbonization.' Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come in the form of US durable goods, US initial jobless claims and US pending home sales.

USDJPY – technical overview

We're seeing a pickup in volatility in the major pair, with the market swinging wildly through the upper and lower bound of a massive triangle. Still, there is no clear direction in sight, with rallies well capped above 110.00 and dips well supported below 104.00.

• R2 109.38 – 6 April high – Strong
• R1 108.09 – 19 May high – Medium
• S1 106.74 – 13 May low – Medium
• S2 105.99 – 6 May low  – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

At the moment, the Yen has been confined to tight trade, as we see offsetting flow from risk on and broad based US Dollar selling. There hasn't been much reaction to all of the tension on the global trade front, and tension around China relations with Hong Kong. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come in the form of US durable goods, US initial jobless claims and US pending home sales.

EURCHF – technical overview

The market remains very well capped into offers and the medium-term picture continues to favour the downside. A break back above 1.0710 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Technicals are however looking extended and the market should be well supported around 1.0500.

• R2 1.0834 – 13 January high – Medium
• R1 1.0710 – 3 March high – Strong
• S1 1.0504 – 18 May/2020 low – Medium
• S2 1.0500 – Psychological – Strong

EURCHF – fundamental overview

The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook, and from a US administration that has put Switzerland on its currency manipulator watchlist. Any signs of risk liquidation in 2020, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.

AUDUSD – technical overview

Technical studies are in the process of unwinding, after the market traded down to its lowest levels since 2003. There is evidence of a longer-term bottom, though the market will need to break back above the December 2019 high at 0.7032 to take the immediate pressure off the downside.

• R2 0.6685 – 9 March high – Strong
• R1 0.6680 – 27 May high – Medium
• S1 0.6506 – 22 May low – Medium
• S2 0.6372 – 4 May low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

Aussie under some pressure into Thursday as US equity futures pull back from recent highs. There hasn't been any reaction to mixed comments from RBA Lowe, or the smaller than expected decline in Aussie capex. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come in the form of US durable goods, US initial jobless claims and US pending home sales.

USDCAD – technical overview

An intense market rally has stalled out just ahead of the 2016 high. At this stage, there is risk for a more meaningful period of correction, with potential for setbacks to extend back down towards previous resistance turned support, in the form of the 2018 high at 1.3665.

• R2 1.4049 – 22 May high – Strong
• R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3727 – 27 May low – Medium
• S2 1.3700 – Figure – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has been better bid with the Loonie getting a big boost from the ongoing recovery in both global equities and OIL. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come in the form of the Canada current account, US durable goods, US initial jobless claims and US pending home sales.

NZDUSD – technical overview

There's a case to be made for a meaningful bottom, with the market looking quite extended after dipping below major psychological support at 0.5500. As such, look for setbacks to continue to be well supported in the weeks ahead, in anticipation of additional upside. Only a weekly close below 0.5500 would give reason for rethink.

• R2 0.6300 – Figure – Medium
• R1 0.6233 –  27 May high – Medium
• S1 0.6081 – 22 May low – Medium
• S2 0.6000 – Psychological – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

Overall, Kiwi has been better bid on account of the broad based risk on flow, though we have seen some risk off into Thursday which is weighing a bit. Earlier today, the RBNZ mets its asset purchase target of NZD 50 million. Meanwhile, second tier data came out better than expected. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come in the form of US durable goods, US initial jobless claims and US pending home sales.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Setbacks have been intense as the market puts in a longer-term top. The market has collapsed through the 2018 low, with the next major support coming in at the 2016 low around 1800. Extended readings have led to an overdue corrective bounce, but rallies should now be well capped ahead of 3200.

• R2 3138 –  3 March high – Strong
• R1 3058 – 27 May high – Medium
• S1 2779 – 4 May low – Medium
• S2 2725 – 21 April low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Although we've seen attempts at recovery in response to unlimited QE from the Fed and massive US stimulus, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for additional runs to the topside, on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, tension on the global trade front, geopolitical risk, and ongoing worry associated with recovery post coronavirus, should weigh more heavily on investor sentiment in 2020.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, and suggests the market is in the early stages of a bullish move towards and through the record high (just ahead of 2000), following a multi-month consolidation. The next major level of resistance comes in around 1800 (measured move extension target, 2012 high), while in the interim, look for any setbacks to be well supported above 1500.

• R2 1796 – 2012 high – Strong
• R1 1765 – 18 May/2020 high – Medium
• S1 1641– 8 April low – Medium
• S2 1568 – 1 April low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, coronavirus fallout, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.

BTCUSD – technical overview

Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of the 2018 low, with a higher low sought out in favour of a bullish continuation back above the 2019 high and towards the record high from late 2017 further up. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 5,000 would compromise the constructive outlook. Back above 10,500 further encourages the bullish prospect. Shorter studies are however stretched and warn of a pullback ahead.

• R2 10,477– 9 February/2020 high – Strong
• R1 10,075 – 8 May high – Medium
• S1 8,000 – Psychological – Medium
• S2 7,704 – 29 April low – Strong

BTCUSD – fundamental overview

Bitcoin has enjoyed a nice recovery since bottoming in March, with the runup in stocks and hype around the halving event contributing to a lot of the momentum. Interest from well known traditional market participants is helping to generate plenty of buzz as well. At the same time, given the extended nature of technical readings into important resistance, we see this as timing well for a sell the fact with the halving event now officially behind us and global equities once again looking vulnerable.

BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail

ETHUSD – technical overview

The market is in the process of attempting to establish a meaningful base after stalling out in the latter half of 2019. Look for setbacks to be well supported above the 2018 low, in favour of another big bounce, eventually back towards and through the 2019 high up at 363.

• R2 289 – 15 February/2020 high – Strong
• R1 227 – 30 April high – Medium
• S1 176 – 11 May low – Medium
• S2 148 – 16 April low  – Strong

ETHUSD – fundamental overview

While there is plenty of Ether demand built up, with so much optimism around prospects for the blockchain, given all of the development going on in the decentralised finance space, macroeconomics will likely play a negative role in 2020, with Ether expected to underperform in a mostly risk off backdrop, in light of Ethereum's higher sensitivity and correlation with risk themes.