Next 24 hours: Month end, quarter end flow
Today’s report: Plenty of central bank speak on Tuesday
Risk assets have been in recovery mode in the early portion of the week, though at this stage, it’s hard to assign much to the recovery other than adjustments from shorter term accounts.
- ECB program
- Brexit outlook
- risk sentiment
- EURCHFSNB policy still faces tough challenges
- RBA Debelle
- Canada GDP
- NZDUSDFinMin Robertson talks fiscal stimulus
- Stocks vulnerable
- hard asset
- Traditional players
- more exposed
Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
EURUSD – technical overviewA higher low is now sought out above the multi-year low from 2017, ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for the major pair to be well supported into dips ahead of the next big run through the 2019 high at 1.1570. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 1.0700 would compromise this outlook.
- R2 1.1423 – 10 June high – Strong
- R1 1.1354 - 16 June high – Medium
- S1 1.1168 - 19 June low – Medium
- S2 1.0992 – 28 May low – Medium
EURUSD – fundamental overviewReports out on Monday around a 'broad coalition of ruling and opposition parties' in Germany planning a motion to back the ECB's bond-buying program, was seen helping to prop the Euro. Other support may have come from weekend comments from German Finance Minister Scholz, who said the ECB had 'fulfilled the demands' of Germany's Constitutional Court.' Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar include Eurozone inflation, US Case Shiller, Chicago PMIs, ECB Guindos, Fed Brainard, Fed Williams, Fed Bostic, Fed Kashkari, and testimony from Fed Chair Powell.
EURUSD - Technical charts in detail
GBPUSD – technical overviewThe market has rebounded sharply, after collapsing to a +30 year low below 1.1500. This supports the longer-term constructive outlook, with a major bottom sought out ahead of the start to a big run to the topside back through 1.3000. Look for the major pair to hold up well into setbacks, and ultimately above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis for confirmation.
- R2 1.2688 – 16 June high – Strong
- R1 1.2543– 24 June high – Medium
- S1 1.2252 – 29 June low – Medium
- S2 1.2161 – 22 May low – Medium
GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has extended its recent run of declines, with market participants still unsure about the outlook on the Brexit front. A commitment from PM Johnson to spend large sums to help stimulate recovery, wasn't able to inspire any sustained confidence in the Pound. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar include UK GDP, speeches from BOE Haldane and Fed Williams, US Case Shiller, Chicago PMIs, Fed Brainard, Fed Bostic, Fed Kashkari, and testimony from Fed Chair Powell.
USDJPY – technical overviewWe're seeing signs of a pickup in volatility in the major pair, with the market chopping around quite a bit. Still, there is no clear directional insight, with the price confined to a larger triangle formation. Overall, rallies have been well capped above 110.00 and dips well supported below 104.00.
- R2 108.55 – 9 June high – Medium
- R1 108.00 – Figure – Medium
- S1 106.07 – 23 June low – Medium
- S2 105.99 – 6 May low – Strong
EURCHF – technical overviewThe market remains very well capped into offers and the medium-term picture continues to favour the downside. A weekly close back above 1.1000 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside.
- R2 1.0916 – 5 June/2020 high – Strong
- R1 1.0791 – 10 June high – Medium
- S1 1.0628 – 26 June low – Medium
- S2 1.0577 – 25 May low – Strong
EURCHF – fundamental overviewThe SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of renewed risk liquidation in 2020, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.
AUDUSD – technical overviewTechnical studies have turned up in recent weeks, after the market traded down to its lowest levels since 2003 earlier this year. There is evidence of a longer-term bottom, though at this stage, there is risk for a pullback to allow for shorter term studies to unwind. Setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 0.6000.
- R2 0.7100 – Figure – Medium
- R1 0.7065 – 10 June/2020 high – Medium
- S1 0.6800 – 12 June low – Medium
- S2 0.6775 – 2 June low – Strong
AUDUSD – fundamental overviewRBA Debelle was out talking loose monetary policy, but stopped short of advocating for negative interest rates, which he doesn't see the need for. Aussie has been mostly bid up on the recovery in stocks, with solid China PMIs, perhaps acting as another source of demand. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar include US Case Shiller, Chicago PMIs, speeches from Fed Williams, Fed Brainard, Fed Bostic, and Fed Kashkari, and testimony from Fed Chair Powell.
USDCAD – technical overviewHas been in the process of correcting since topping out earlier this year above 1.4600. At this stage, with the correction well extended, the market is likely to find solid support in the 1.3200-1.3400 area, ahead of a resumption of gains. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 1.3300 would suggest otherwise.
- R2 1.3833 – 29 May high – Strong
- R1 1.3716 – 26 June high – Medium
- S1 1.3315 – 10 June low – Medium
- S2 1.3202 – 21 February low – Strong
USDCAD – fundamental overviewDownside pressure in the price of OIL and broad based risk off flow have factored into the recent selloff in the Canadian Dollar. Second tier economic data out of Canada on Monday was mixed and proved to be offsetting as a result. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar include Canada GDP, US Case Shiller, Chicago PMIs, speeches from Fed Williams, Fed Brainard, Fed Bostic, and Fed Kashkari, and testimony from Fed Chair Powell.
NZDUSD – technical overviewThere's a case to be made for a meaningful bottom, after the market collapsed below massive psychological support at 0.5500 earlier this year. A break back above the 0.6600 area would be required to officially put this market in an uptrend on the weekly chart, though daily studies are now trending up with any setbacks expected to be well supported ahead of 0.6000.
- R2 0.6600 – Psychological – Strong
- R1 0.6585 – 10 June high – Medium
- S1 0.6394 – 12 June low – Medium
- S2 0.6263 – 2 June low – Strong
NZDUSD – fundamental overviewNew Zealand FinMin Robertson said the government would continue to keep all its options on the table with regard to further fiscal stimulus, but stressed helicopter money wasn't in the immediate plan. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar include US Case Shiller, Chicago PMIs, speeches from Fed Williams, Fed Brainard, Fed Bostic, and Fed Kashkari, and testimony from Fed Chair Powell.
US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe market has been in recovery mode since bottoming out in March. Still, the recovery is classified as corrective, with a lower top sought out below the record high from February, ahead of the next major downside extension, eventually back below the March low.
- R2 3261 – 25 February high – Strong
- R1 3235 – 9 June high – Medium
- S1 2936 – 15 May low – Medium
- S2 2909 – 22 May low – Strong
US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewAlthough we've seen attempts at recovery in response to unlimited QE from the Fed and massive US stimulus, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for additional runs to the topside, on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, tension on the global trade front, geopolitical risk, and ongoing worry associated with recovery post coronavirus, should weigh more heavily on investor sentiment in 2020.
GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, and suggests the market is in the early stages of a bullish move towards and through the record high (just ahead of 2000), following a multi-month consolidation. The next major level of resistance comes in around 1800 (measured move extension target, 2012 high), while in the interim, look for any setbacks to be well supported above 1500.
- R2 1796 – 2012 high – Strong
- R1 1780 – 24 June/2020 high – Medium
- S1 1641– 8 April low – Medium
- S2 1568 – 1 April low – Strong
GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, coronavirus fallout, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.
BTCUSD – technical overviewSetbacks should be very well supported ahead of the 2018 low, with a higher low sought out in favour of a bullish continuation back above the 2019 high and towards the record high from late 2017 further up. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 5,000 would compromise the constructive outlook. Back above 10,500 further encourages the bullish prospect. Shorter studies are however stretched and warn of a pullback ahead.
- R2 10,477– 9 February/2020 high – Strong
- R1 10,360 – 2 June high – Medium
- S1 8,000 – Psychological – Medium
- S2 7,704 – 29 April low – Strong
BTCUSD – fundamental overviewBitcoin has enjoyed a nice recovery since bottoming in March, with the runup in stocks and hype around the halving event contributing to a lot of the momentum. Interest from well known traditional market participants is helping to generate plenty of buzz as well. At the same time, given the extended nature of technical readings into important resistance, we see this as timing well for a sell the fact with the 2020 halving event now officially behind us and global equities once again looking vulnerable.
BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail
ETHUSD – technical overviewThe market is in the process of attempting to establish a meaningful base after stalling out in the latter half of 2019. Look for setbacks to be well supported above the 2018 low, in favour of another big bounce, eventually back towards and through the 2019 high up at 363.
- R2 289 – 15 February/2020 high – Strong
- R1 253 – 2 June high – Medium
- S1 176 – 11 May low – Medium
- S2 148 – 16 April low – Strong
ETHUSD – fundamental overviewWhile there is plenty of Ether demand built up, with so much optimism around prospects for the blockchain, given all of the development going on in the decentralised finance space, macroeconomics will likely play a negative role in 2020, with Ether expected to underperform in a mostly risk off backdrop, in light of Ethereum's higher sensitivity and correlation with risk themes.
- Persistence Does Pay, It Just Doesn't Happen Much, J. Authers, Bloomberg (June 30, 2020)
- How Coronavirus Will Change Commuting, L. Hook, Financial Times (June 29, 2020)