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GBPUSD – technical overview

The market continues to be exceptionally well supported on dips down into the 1.2000 area, with the latest setback once again holding up around the barrier. Overall, the daily trend remains bearish, though there are signs of the market wanting to put in a meaningful bottom ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a clear break back above 1.2700 to strengthen this outlook. A monthly close below 1.2000 would force a rethink of the outlook.

• R2 1.2518 – 10 June high – Medium
• R1 1.2320 – 13 June high – Medium
• S1 1.2000 – Psychological – Medium
• S2 1.1934 – 14 June/2022 low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

It's been a nasty week for UK data and the Pound has been hammered as a consequence. Monday's awful round of economic data highlighted by discouraging GDP numbers, was followed up on Tuesday by a weak UK employment report. All of this at a time when yield differentials are already moving in the US Dollar's favor in the aftermath of last week's US CPI read. Looking ahead, most of the focus for the day will be on the Fed decision. Other key standouts on today’s calendar include Eurozone industrial production and trade, US retail sales, business inventories, NY Empire State manufacturing, and NAHB housing.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market has rocketed higher to its highest levels since 1998 after breaking through the 2002 high. Technical studies are however looking stretched, with scope for a sizable consolidation and correction in the weeks ahead. Look for additional upside from here to be limited to the 135.00 area. A break back below 130.00 would take the immediate pressure off the topside.

• R2 136.00 – Figure – Strong
• R1 135.59 – 15 June/2022 high – Strong
• S1 132.54 – 8 June low – Medium
• S2 129.51 – 2 June low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

Policy divergence continues to play a strong hand here, with market participants once again focusing on yield differentials that weigh heavily in the US Dollar's favor. The BOJ is clearly still committed to easy policy despite what's going on with other major central banks and the impact on the Yen, now at  its lowest levels against the Buck since 1998. There has been some talk of intervention around 135.00, though at this stage, it's too early to tell if this is indeed the case. Looking ahead, most of the focus for the day will be on the Fed decision. Other key standouts on today’s calendar include Eurozone industrial production and trade, US retail sales, business inventories, NY Empire State manufacturing, and NAHB housing.

AUDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside and conditions remain quite choppy. A break back above 0.7900 would be required to force a shift in the structure and suggest we are seeing a more significant bullish reversal. Until then, scope exists for a retest and break of the yearly low.

• R1 0.7198 – 9 June high – Medium
• R2 0.7138 – 10 June high – Medium
• S1 0.6851 – 14 June low – Medium
• S2 0.6829 – 12 May/2022 low – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

Most of the latest round of setbacks in the Australian Dollar come from broad based risk off flow in the aftermath of last Friday's hot US inflation data. Looking ahead, most of the focus for the day will be on the Fed decision. Other key standouts on today’s calendar include Eurozone industrial production and trade, US retail sales, business inventories, NY Empire State manufacturing, and NAHB housing. prices.

USDCAD – technical overview

A recent surge back above 1.3000 signals an end to a period of bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.3500 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.2500 area.

• R2 1.3000 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.2975 – 14 June high  – Medium
• S1 1.2681 – 10 June low – Medium
• S2 1.2518 – 8 June low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has outperformed against most of its peers on better local data and higher oil prices. Nevertheless, this hasn't left the currency immune to downside pressure against the US Dollar as Fed policy normalization expectations grow even tighter. Looking ahead, most of the focus for the day will be on the Fed decision. Other key standouts on today’s calendar include Eurozone industrial production and trade, US retail sales, business inventories, NY Empire State manufacturing, and NAHB housing.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside and conditions remain quite choppy. A break back above 0.6600 would be required to force a shift in the structure and suggest we are seeing a more significant bullish reversal. Until then, scope exists for fresh yearly lows and a retest of the 2015 low down towards 0.6100.

• R2 0.6500 – 7 June high – Medium
• R1 0.6462 – 9 June high – Medium
• S1 0.6200– Figure – Medium
• S2 0.6197 – 14 June/2022 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

Most of the latest round of setbacks in the New Zealand Dollar come from broad based risk off flow in the aftermath of last Friday's hot US inflation data. Looking ahead, most of the focus for the day will be on the Fed decision. Other key standouts on today’s calendar include Eurozone industrial production and trade, US retail sales, business inventories, NY Empire State manufacturing, and NAHB housing.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Longer-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from extended readings off record highs. Look for rallies to be well capped in favor of lower tops and lower lows. Back above 4,206 will be required at a minimum to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Next major support comes in around 3,400.

• R2 4206 – 30 May high – Strong
• R1 4031 – 10 June high – Medium
• S1 3708 – 14 June/2022 low – Medium
• S2 3700 – Round number – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

With so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for sustainable runs to the topside on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, ongoing worry associated with rising inflation and slower growth should continue to weigh more heavily on investor sentiment in 2022.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs. Setbacks should now be well supported above 1700.

• R2 1999 – 18 April high – Strong
• R1 1920 – 29 April high – Medium
• S1 1805 – 14 June low – Strong
• S2 1787 – 16 May low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, and inflation risk. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.