Reassurances helping….for now

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The recent weekly close back above the September high at 1.1739 strengthens this prospect. Any setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 1.1500. Next key resistance comes in at 1.2668.

• R2 1.2400– Figure – Medium
• R1 1.2344 – 23 March high– Medium
• S1 1.2167 – 20 March low– Medium
• S2 1.2010 – 15 March low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

UK consumer confidence data improved and retail sales were better than expected. Ultimately however, the Pound fell victim to more dovish leaning BOE chatter from the likes of BOE Bailey and BOE Mann. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, UK CBI distributive trades, and some ECB and BOE speak.

USDJPY – technical overview

The major pair has seen a nice recovery following the massive correction out from multi-year highs. Setbacks have finally been well supported ahead of 125.00 in the 127s thus far. At this stage, it looks like the market could be wanting to resume the bigger picture uptrend and head back towards a retest of that multi-year high from October 2022 up at 151.95. Look for any weakness to continue to be well supported in favor of higher lows along the way.

• R2 135.12 – 15 March high – Strong
• R1 133.00– 22 March high – Medium
• S1 129.64 – 24 March low – Medium
• S2 129.81 – 10 February low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The Yen has continue to hold up well overall on positive Japan data and safe haven bid appeal. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, UK CBI distributive trades, and some ECB and BOE speak.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base following the late 2022 surge back above 0.6500. The recent weekly close back above previous support now turned resistance at 0.6682 strengthens the outlook for a bullish structural shift. Next key resistance comes in at 0.7284. Setbacks should be well supported ahead of 0.6500.

• R1 0.6784 – 1 March high – Strong
• R2 0.6760 – 22 March high – Medium
• S1 0.6564– 9 March low – Medium
• S2 0.6500 – Psychological – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar is back under pressure in recent sessions, with discouraging Aussie PMI reads contributing to the deterioration. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, UK CBI distributive trades, and some ECB and BOE speak.

USDCAD – technical overview

A recent surge back above 1.3000 signals an end to a period of bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3900– Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3863 – 10 March high – Medium
• S1 1.3631 – 23 March low – Medium
• S2 1.3555 – 3 March low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Canada retail sales came in better than expected at the end of last week, which helped to mitigate fallout in the Canadian Dollar. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, UK CBI distributive trades, and some ECB and BOE speak.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market once again stalling out on a run up into the 0.6500 area. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6577 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside.

• R2 0.6300 – Figure – Strong
• R1 0.6295 – 23 March high – Medium
• S1 0.6139– 16 March low – Medium
• S2 0.6084 – 8 March low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The Economics Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade reported New Zealand's economy may have contracted in Q1 2023 due to adverse weather conditions. Primary production and exports would be affected, weighing on the already expected slow growth for Q1 2023. Inflation is expected to remain above 7% for longer than expected. Recall New Zealand's 4Q GDP contracted by 0.6% q/q and another successive contraction in Q1 2023 would drive New Zealand into a technical recession. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, UK CBI distributive trades, and some ECB and BOE speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Longer-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from extended readings off record highs. Look for rallies to be well capped in favor of lower tops and lower lows. A monthly close back above 4300 will be required at a minimum to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Next major support comes in at 3763.

• R2 4198 – 2 February/2023 high – Strong
• R1 4080 – 6 February high – Medium
• S1 3806 – 13 March low – Medium
• S2 3763 – 22 December low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

We've finally reached a point in the cycle where the Fed recognizes unanchored inflation expectations pose a greater downside risk than over-tightening. This is significant, as it means less investor friendly monetary policy that risks potential recession in the months ahead. Overall, we expect inflation to continue to be a problem in H1 2023 that results in downside pressure into rallies.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs. Setbacks should now be well supported above 1600 on a monthly close basis ahead of the next major upside extension. The recent break back above 1808 strengthens the bullish outlook. Next major resistance comes in at the record high from 2020 at 2076.

• R2 2010 – 20 March high – Strong
• R1 2000 – Psychological – Medium
• S1 1804 – 28 February low – Medium
• S2 1719 – 23 November 2022 low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.