All eyes on US jobs report

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 1.2576 – 7 January high – Strong
• R1 1.2550 – 5 February high – Medium
• S1 1.2249 –  3 February low – Medium
• S2 1.2161 – 17 January low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The split BOE vote caught the market off guard, with former hawk Mann wanting a 50 basis point rate cut. The BOE also came out and cut growth forecasts in half. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, ECB speak, BOE speak, the monthly employment reports out of the US and Canada, Fed speak, and Michigan sentiment.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. The October monthly close back above 150.00 strengthens the case for longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 156.76 – 23 January high – Strong
• R1 155.89 – 3 February high – Medium
• S1 150.96– 7 February low – Medium
• S2 150.00 – Psychological – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The Yen rally was given more fuel on the back of much stronger than expected Japan household spending and calls from the IMF for more BOJ rate hikes this year. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, ECB speak, BOE speak, the monthly employment reports out of the US and Canada, Fed speak, and Michigan sentiment.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6000 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6331 – 24 January/2025 high – Medium
• R2 0.6297 – 5 February high – Medium
• S1 0.6170 – 4 February low – Medium
• S2 0.6087 – 3 February/2025 low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

Aussie has been better bid in recent sessions, though the upcoming February 18 RBA meeting could keep the currency well capped into rallies on the expectation the RBA will cut rates and come out more dovish. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, ECB speak, BOE speak, the monthly employment reports out of the US and Canada, Fed speak, and Michigan sentiment.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in at the 1.5000 psychological barrier. Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 1.4200.

• R2 1.4595 – 30 January high – Medium
• R1 1.4503 – 4 February high – Medium
• S1 1.4300 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.4270 – 5 February/2025 low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has been enjoyed a strong recovery rally following the news of the one-month delay of US tariffs. The market is becoming less threatened by this risk, and perhaps appreciating all of this is more banter and negotiation than anything else. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, ECB speak, BOE speak, the monthly employment reports out of the US and Canada, Fed speak, and Michigan sentiment.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5469 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.5724 – 24 January/2025 high – Strong
• R1 0.5703 – 5 February high – Medium
• S1 0.5582 – 4 February low – Medium
• S2 0.5541 – 13 January low – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar has done a good job shrugging off this week's downbeat employment report which adds to the case for another 50 basis point RBNZ rate cut. Instead, the currency has been more focused on the downgraded threat around US tariffs. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, ECB speak, BOE speak, the monthly employment reports out of the US and Canada, Fed speak, and Michigan sentiment.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6200 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 6133 – 24 January/Record high – Medium
• S1 5771 – 13 January/2025 low – Medium
• S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in anticipation of a market bullish Trump presidency. It will however be important to keep an eye on Trump trade policies, inflation, bigger picture economic data and the latest shift in the Fed dot plot. Any of these variables are capable of easily ruffling some feathers and we've already seen a little of this as 2025 gets going.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2900 – Round Number – Medium
• R1 2883 – 5 February/Record high – Medium
• S1 2730 – 27 January low – Medium
• S2 2689 – 20 January low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in recent months with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.