A seismic shift in global trade

Today’s report: A seismic shift in global trade

It’s being viewed as a watershed historic moment for global trade. The US Liberation Day tariffs have certainly shaken up financial markets in the immediate aftermath. Investors have lost confidence in the US Dollar, which has come under pressure across the board, particularly against the other major currencies which are being seen as attractive alternatives.

Wake-up call

Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights

Choose pair:

EURUSD – technical overview

The Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips towards parity, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push back towards the 2023 high at 1.1276 in the days ahead. Only a monthly close below 1.0000 negates.

  • R2 1.1000 – Psychological – Strong
  • R1 1.0955 - 18 March/2025 high  – Medium
  • S1 1.0733 - 27 March low – Medium
  • S2 1.0602 – 5 March low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overview

The Euro has just rocketed higher in the aftermath of the more aggressive tariffs out of the US. Market participants are maneuvering towards the Euro amidst US exceptionalism policies. The EU is preparing emergency aid for sectors hit by Trump’s tariffs, including short-term support, competitiveness reforms, and single market improvements. It has already launched $26 billion in countermeasures to earlier U.S. tariffs and is planning $18 billion more to address Trump’s broader tariffs. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, ECB speak, Canada trade, US trade, US initial jobless claims, US ISM services, and the ECB Minutes.

EURUSD - Technical charts in detail

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis.

  • R2 1.3175 – 4 October high – Strong
  • R1 1.3101 – 3 April/2025 high – Medium
  • S1 1.2871 –  27 March low – Strong
  • S2 1.2768 – 5 March low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound has shown tremendous resilience and strength following the latest tariff announcements from the Trump administration, particularly as markets speculate the UK might face less severe trade impacts compared to the EU. Optimism the UK’s relatively balanced trade relationship with the U.S. could lead to exemptions or lighter tariffs is boosting investor confidence. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, ECB speak, Canada trade, US trade, US initial jobless claims, US ISM services, and the ECB Minutes.

USDJPY – technical overview

There are signs of a meaningful top in place after the market put in a multi-year high in 2024. At this point, the door is now open for a deeper setback towards the 140 area.

  • R2 151.21 – 28 March high – Strong
  • R1 149.28 – 3 April high – Medium
  • S1 146.97 – 3 April low – Medium
  • S2 146.54 – 11 March/2025 low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The market is viewing long Yen positions as the best hedge against US tariff and recession risk. This has been helped along by a recommendation out from Goldman Sachs echoing this sentiment. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, ECB speak, Canada trade, US trade, US initial jobless claims, US ISM services, and the ECB Minutes.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6000 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

  • R1 0.6409 – 21 February/2025 high – Strong
  • R2 0.6392 – 18 March high – Medium
  • S1 0.6187 – 4 March low – Medium
  • S2 0.6164 – 17 January low – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar is struggling to attract buyers because of a significant 34% reciprocal tariff slapped on China - it's largest trading partner, coupled with heightened risk-off sentiment following the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, ECB speak, Canada trade, US trade, US initial jobless claims, US ISM services, and the ECB Minutes.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in at the 1.5000 psychological barrier. Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 1.4000.

  • R2 1.4595 – 30 January high – Strong
  • R1 1.4416 – 1 April high – Medium
  • S1 1.4200 – Figure – Medium
  • S2 1.4151 – 14 February/2025 low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has held up surprisingly well in the aftermath of the tariff news. It seems markets may have already priced in U.S. tariff risks and expect softer impacts due to Canada’s close trade ties and ongoing talks with the Trump administration. Broad based USD weakness amid global trade concerns is also offsetting pressure. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, ECB speak, Canada trade, US trade, US initial jobless claims, US ISM services, and the ECB Minutes.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5469 will intensify bearish price action.

  • R2 0.5900 – Figure – Medium
  • R1 0.5832 – 18 March/2025 high – Medium
  • S1 0.5677 – 11 March low – Medium
  • S2 0.5585 – 28 February low – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar has been caught between risk off fallout from the US tariff announcement and broad based US Dollar selling in the aftermath. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, ECB speak, Canada trade, US trade, US initial jobless claims, US ISM services, and the ECB Minutes.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. But we are in the throes of a meaningful correction with scope for the pullback to extend back towards major previous resistance turned support in the form of the 2022 high at 4820.

  • R2 5792 – 25 March high – Strong
  • R1 5704 – 28 March high – Medium
  • S1 5446 – 3 April/2025 low – Medium
  • S2 5386 – 6 September low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Going forward, it will be important to keep an eye on Trump trade policies, inflation, bigger picture economic data and the Fed policy outlook. Any of these variables are capable of easily ruffling some feathers and we've already seen a little of this thus far in 2025.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension towards 3500. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2800 on a monthly close basis.

  • R2 3200 – Round Number – Medium
  • R1 3168 – 3 April/Record high – Medium
  • S1 3000 – 21 March low – Medium
  • S2 2957 – 24 February high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in recent months with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

Peformance chart: 30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)

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Daily Reports Global FX Insights   joelkruger  

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