FX Into Light US Thanksgiving Week

GBPUSD – technical overview

The market has broken out of a multi session consolidation off the multi-year low, which could now open the door for a more significant correction higher in the days ahead. Ultimately, there is room to run towards 1.2800 without compromising the intense downtrend, with a lower top sought out in favour of a bearish resumption back towards 1.2000. Only a weekly close above 1.2800 would compromise the structure. A daily close below 1.2300 will put the immediate pressure back on the downside.

• R2 1.2505 – 17Nov high – Strong
• R1 1.2436 – 18Nov high– Medium
• S1 1.2302 – 18Nov low – Medium
• S2 1.2206 – 1Nov low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

A bout of post US election relative outperformance in the Pound has come to a halt, with the UK currency reversing course and trading 2% lower over the past week. Even hawkish comments from BOE Carney who expected inflation to tick up for the remainder of this year and into next year, have failed to support the Pound. Looking ahead, the economic calendar is exceptionally light in both the UK and US this week and it’s likely the Pound will continue to find offers into rallies as we inch closer to what should be a rate hike from the Fed next month.

USDJPY – technical overview

The major pair has seen an intense bullish shift in recent days, with the most recent break above 107.50 exposing fresh upside towards next meaningful resistance at 111.45 in the sessions ahead. However, daily studies are looking stretched which suggests that additional upside could be limited for now in favour of a healthy corrective pullback. Ultimately, any setbacks are expected to be well supported above 105.00.

• R2 111.45 – 30May high – Strong
• R1 111.00 – Figure – Medium
• S1 109.80 – 18Nov low – Medium
• S2 108.55 – 17Nov low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The major pair continues to build on its bullish momentum, trading up to fresh multi-week highs on the back of demand from leveraged, macro and HFT accounts. Perhaps a Bloomberg report the Japanese government is discussing added fiscal stimulus in 2017 is also helping to fuel the USDJPY demand. Meanwhile, the ongoing bid in US equities just off record highs is certainly not hurting and dealers continue to cite solid demand on dips. As far as the economic calendar goes, softer Japan trade data hasn’t factored into price action and the calendar for the remainder of the day is exceptionally thin.

EURCHF – technical overview

The latest daily close below 1.0738 strengthens the bearish outlook and opens the door for an acceleration of declines towards the 2016 low at 1.0624. At this point, a daily close back above 1.0865 would now be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside and suggest the market is once again looking settle back into the previous range.

• R2 1.0865 – 28Oct high – Medium
• R1 1.0760 – 15Nov high – Strong
• S1 1.0687 – 18Nov low – Medium
• S2 1.0624 – 24Jun/2016 low – Strong

EURCHF – fundamental overview

The SNB has unquestionably had a difficult time of late, with the central bank forced to contend with an intense wave of demand for the Swiss Franc. The central bank has been committed to its mandate of ensuring the Franc does not appreciate further through monetary policy and intervention tools. Though despite all efforts, the Franc continues to want to appreciate against the Euro. It seems the strategy has been to buy Euro when risk comes off and to do nothing when risk is back on and natural flows should be CHF bearish. But the trouble is, when risk comes back, the Franc is still appreciating which is a major headache for the SNB and ultimately, could open more unwanted appreciation in the Franc going forward.

AUDUSD – technical overview

The latest break below 0.7400 is a significant development and now opens the door for deeper setbacks towards next key support at 0.7145 in the days ahead. At this point, look for any rallies to be well capped ahead of 0.7600. Only back above 0.7700 delays the bearish outlook.

• R2 0.7502 – 17Nov high – Strong
• R1 0.7419 – 18Nov high – Medium
• S1 0.7305 –24Jun low – Medium
• S2 0.7285 – 16Jun low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

Absence of first tier economic data out of Australia this week could keep the Australian Dollar under pressure with the market continuing to focus on yield differentials that favour the US Dollar as the Fed inches closer to a rate hike next month. The Australian Dollar was one of the weakest currencies in the previous week, not getting any help from the latest Aussie employment data which had several disturbing components.

USDCAD – technical overview

This market looks to be in the process of carving out a longer-term base off the 1.2461, 2016 low. Look for any additional weakness to be supported well ahead of 1.3000 in favour of the next major upside extension towards a measured move objective into the 1.4000 area. Ultimately, only back below 1.3000 would delay the constructive outlook.

• R2 1.3589 – 14Nov high – Strong
• R1 1.3565 – 18Nov high – Medium
• S1 1.3400 – 17Nov low – Medium
• S2 1.3354 – 1Nov low– Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Any strength in the price of OIL continues to be a welcome prop for the Canadian Dollar, which overall, has come under a good deal of pressure against the Buck over the past few months. The combination of diverging monetary policy and this latest uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration, have been major strains on the Loonie, with OIL strength the only variable helping to offset the weakness. Friday’s softer Canada inflation data failed to open fresh weakness in the Loonie with the latest recovery in the price of OIL more than offsetting. Looking ahead, the economic calendar is exceptionally thin.

NZDUSD – technical overview

The pressure has shifted back to the downside with the market now expected to be very well capped on rallies. Look for a fresh lower top at 0.7403 in favour of the next major downside extension below 0.6952 and towards medium-term support at 0.6675 further down.

• R2 0.7114 – 16Nov high – Strong
• R1 0.7050 – Mid-Figure  – Medium
• S1 0.6952 – 21Jul low – Strong
• S2 0.6900 – Figure – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

Another run of soft Kiwi data, this time in the form of this latest retail sales showing, should be yet another reason for bears to continue to build into shorts. Kiwi is trading at its lowest levels against the Buck since July and has recently taken out key psychological barriers at 0.7000. Yield differentials with the US continue to be the major driver, though we have seen a better bid US equity market and some cross related Kiwi demand against Aussie help to support somewhat into this latest dip. Looking ahead, the economic calendar is exceptionally thin.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

While this latest surge back towards the record high could compromise what has been the possibility for a toppish structure, the risk is still tilted to the downside if the market fails to establish above the record high from August just shy of 2200. But ultimately, at this point, any topside failure will also need to be met with a break back below 2100 to once again encourage the possibility for a bearish structural shift.

• R2 2194.00 – 23Aug/Record high – Strong
• R1 2190.00 – 18Nov high – Medium
• S1 2148.00 – 8Nov high – Medium
• S2 2100.00 – Psychological– Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

The ongoing bid for US equities has been more than impressive, particularly at a time when the Fed is about to embark on a more steady path to policy normalisation. But the market will need to once again think about the bigger, more worrying issue at hand, which is an exhaustion of global monetary policy tools globally and an inability for central banks to continue to support and stimulate growth. This leaves financial markets vulnerable to any shocks and exposed to intense periods of additional risk liquidation going forward, especially at a time when the Fed is moving further away from accommodation.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

Despite a major setback, the overall structure remains highly constructive with the market in the process of carving out a longer-term base. Look for any weakness to be very well supported above 1200, with only a close back below this level to delay the bullish outlook and give reason for pause. Back above 1233.10 strengthens the outlook and should accelerate gains towards a retest of the 2016 peak at 1375.

• R2 1265.50 – 11Nov high – Strong
• R1 1233.10 – 18Nov high – Medium
• S1 1202.95 – 18Nov low – Medium
• S2 1199.90 – 30May low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

Overall, GOLD has been very well supported in 2016, with the yellow metal finding solid demand from medium and longer-term players on the back of fears over the limitations of exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, systemic risk and a bet that record low inflation will turn up even faster in a Trump presidency. All of this will almost certainly continue to keep the commodity in demand, even if the Buck is propped, with many market participants fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax. Dealers cite strong demand in the $1200 area.

Feature – technical overview

USDMXN has raced to a fresh record high with the market surging through critical psychological barriers at 20.000. The break to new highs now opens the door for a measured move upside extension towards 22.0000 in the sessions ahead, following a period of consolidation roughly between 18.0000 and 20.0000. At this point, only back below 18.000 would compromise the highly constructive outlook.

• R2 22.0000 – Measured Move – Strong
• R1 21.3950 – 11Nov/Record High – Medium
• S1 19.5490 – 3Nov high – Medium
• S2 18.1600 – 9Nov low – Strong

Feature – fundamental overview

The danger of a Trump Presidency to the Mexican economy has become a reality. This has opened a dramatic collapse in the Peso, with the currency sinking to a fresh record low against the Buck and down as much as 10% post election. It has also forced the Banxico into the uncomfortable position of having to raise rates another 50bps to offset the rapid Peso depreciation at a time when such a hike will only act as a major strain on the local economy and Mexico’s growth prospects. The only help to the Peso at the moment is the ongoing bid for US equities, but with this market in desperate need of a major correction, things could really get ugly for the Banxico if risk comes off.