Special Reports – LMAX Group Opinions

FOMC Minutes Preview

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 11:36:29 +0000

FOMC Minutes Preview

Today’s FOMC minutes could reveal the breadth of the Fed’s hawkish bias, though we see limited market fallout from confirmation of that stance and greater potential for dollar weakness and equity strength on any dovish surprise.

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US CPI Preview

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:45:53 +0000

US CPI Preview

Today’s US CPI report could determine whether the Fed raises rates in September, with softer core inflation likely supporting risk assets and a 0.3% monthly reading or higher favoring the dollar and Treasury yields.

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US jobs report preview: Searching for a Goldilocks outcome

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:50:25 +0000

US jobs report preview: Searching for a Goldilocks outcome

Friday's US jobs report is shaping up to be the next major test for financial markets, with investors looking for further evidence of a Goldilocks labor market that supports the recent rally in risk assets without reigniting inflation concerns.

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ECB Policy Decision Preview

Wed, 22 Jul 2026 12:23:47 +0000

ECB Policy Decision Preview

Markets expect the ECB to leave rates unchanged on Thursday, with investors focused on whether President Lagarde delivers a hawkish message that keeps a September rate hike firmly in play amid elevated geopolitical and energy-driven inflation risks.

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CPI and Warsh face a high bar

Tue, 14 Jul 2026 11:15:09 +0000

CPI and Warsh face a high bar

Markets face a pivotal test today as investors look to US CPI for evidence that inflation is continuing to cool, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony is unlikely to unsettle markets unless he delivers a meaningfully more hawkish message than is already priced in.

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FOMC Minutes Preview

Wed, 08 Jul 2026 12:42:08 +0000

FOMC Minutes Preview

Markets will scrutinize the June FOMC minutes for fresh insight into the Fed's internal policy debate and whether Chair Kevin Warsh's push for less forward guidance signals a more data-dependent—and potentially less predictable—approach to monetary policy.

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Words over dots: The market’s first look at a Warsh Fed

Wed, 17 Jun 2026 08:04:45 +0000

Words over dots: The market’s first look at a Warsh Fed

Markets expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged today, but the real focus will be on Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Chair, where investors will look for clues on the future policy path, the Fed's communication framework, and whether the central bank is leaning toward tighter policy or laying the groundwork for eventual accommodation.

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ECB Preview: Hike today, what about tomorrow?

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:34:15 +0000

ECB Preview: Hike today, what about tomorrow?

The ECB is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point "insurance hike" to 2.25%, but with the move fully priced in, markets will be focused on whether President Lagarde signals a cautious one-off adjustment or leaves the door open to further tightening in response to persistent inflation risks.

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US Jobs Report Preview

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 07:56:27 +0000

US Jobs Report Preview

Today's U.S. employment report is shaping up as one of the most important macro releases ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, with markets looking for confirmation that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher energy prices, ongoing Middle East tensions, and lingering uncertainty around trade and investment.

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Why crypto may be entering its next accumulation phase

Wed, 03 Jun 2026 11:27:52 +0000

Why crypto may be entering its next accumulation phase

As speculative excess is flushed from the market and institutional adoption continues to advance, the foundations for crypto's next accumulation cycle may already be taking shape.

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The Shekel Shock: Structural currency strength and a possible long-term policy rethink

Wed, 27 May 2026 10:29:39 +0000

The Shekel Shock: Structural currency strength and a possible long-term policy rethink

The shekel has emerged as one of the world’s strongest currencies despite ongoing war and geopolitical instability, reflecting the growing structural resilience of Israel’s innovation-driven economy while raising important long-term questions about how policymakers might eventually respond to sustained currency appreciation.

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Fed Minutes Preview: How far is the Fed from another hike?

Wed, 20 May 2026 07:24:20 +0000

Fed Minutes Preview: How far is the Fed from another hike?

Markets head into today’s FOMC minutes looking for greater clarity on just how concerned Fed officials have become about persistent inflation and geopolitical risks, though with hawkish expectations already largely priced in, the hurdle for a fresh risk-off shock may be relatively high.

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Crypto: Perspective after the pullback

Mon, 18 May 2026 06:24:51 +0000

Crypto: Perspective after the pullback

Despite recent underperformance versus equities, crypto appears to be consolidating within a developing uptrend, supported by strengthening technical structure, improving fundamentals, and a still-compelling long-term macro case.

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Fading dollar dominance reinforces structural bid for bitcoin

Wed, 13 May 2026 06:09:20 +0000

Fading dollar dominance reinforces structural bid for bitcoin

The gradual erosion of US dollar dominance in global reserves is reinforcing the structural case for Bitcoin and digital assets as credible, non-sovereign alternatives—particularly given their advantages over gold and growing institutional adoption.

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US CPI preview: Will inflation surprise?

Tue, 12 May 2026 05:14:25 +0000

US CPI preview: Will inflation surprise?

Markets head into today’s CPI expecting a firm print, but with positioning already skewed hawkish, the risk is that anything short of a major upside surprise triggers a relief rally in equities and weakness in the Dollar.

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RBA decision preview

Mon, 04 May 2026 06:58:10 +0000

RBA decision preview

The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to deliver a likely 25bp hike to reinforce its inflation-fighting stance, but markets are focused on whether this marks a shift toward a pause as growth softens and energy-driven risks rise.

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All about the tone: ECB and BOE in focus

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 06:48:34 +0000

All about the tone: ECB and BOE in focus

Markets head into today’s ECB and Bank of England decisions in the immediate aftermath of a more hawkish-leaning Fed. The broad consensus is that both central banks will hold on rates, leaving the real focus squarely on communication rather than action.

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FOMC decision preview

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 07:39:24 +0000

FOMC decision preview

Markets head into today’s FOMC with near-universal expectations for a hold, so this meeting is much less about the rate decision itself and much more about Powell’s tone, the inflation narrative and whether the Fed leans toward validating market calm or pushing back against it.

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Keep an eye on crypto

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 07:22:01 +0000

Keep an eye on crypto

Crypto is showing signs of a structural bullish shift, with bitcoin and ETH holding key breakouts amid improved sentiment, supportive macro dynamics, and early signs of capital rotating back into the asset class after a prolonged period of underperformance.

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Fed Preview: Oil Shocks, Policy Optionality, and a Changing Bias

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 11:20:49 +0000

Fed Preview: Oil Shocks, Policy Optionality, and a Changing Bias

A Fed on hold is likely to maintain a hawkish tone, but growing macro uncertainty and supply-driven inflation risks point to an underappreciated shift toward prioritizing growth, leaving markets vulnerable to a post-event move of dollar weakness and renewed demand for equities.

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Why crypto is holding up better than you’d think

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 07:51:01 +0000

Why crypto is holding up better than you’d think

Crypto markets have exhibited notable resilience into Monday, amid the ongoing joint US-Israel military operation targeting the Iranian regime. This relative stability stands in contrast to the sharper volatility seen in traditional markets, where equity futures have tumbled and oil prices have rocketed. Several structural advantages appear to underpin crypto’s outperformance.

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Crypto Update: When fear rises, history whispers

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 09:56:08 +0000

Crypto Update: When fear rises, history whispers

Crypto markets have been back in the spotlight on a global scale as losses intensify in recent days, leaving bitcoin more than 50% below its October record high and ETH roughly 65% off its August peak. So what do we make of it and were do we go from here?

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FOMC Decision Preview

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 08:08:43 +0000

FOMC Decision Preview

Markets head into today’s FOMC decision expecting little in the way of policy fireworks, with the Fed widely forecast to hold rates steady at 3.50 to 3.75% after three consecutive cuts late last year. Futures markets are pricing in more than a 97% chance of a pause, with the earliest meaningful odds of another cut not emerging until June.

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The elephant might not be that large — crypto thoughts

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 08:03:52 +0000

The elephant might not be that large — crypto thoughts

Optimism remains abundant as the year gets underway, driven by growing excitement around bitcoin and the broader crypto complex amid continued signs of institutional adoption and regulatory progress. But the market has now encountered its first meaningful test.

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Markets adjust to a new balance

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 08:02:58 +0000

Markets adjust to a new balance

Looking back on 2025, the performance of assets against the U.S. dollar reflects a year of macroeconomic adjustment rather than outright disruption.

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FOMC decision preview

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 06:57:31 +0000

FOMC decision preview

As markets head into today’s FOMC decision, the consensus expectation is for the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25bp rate cut, an outcome that is largely priced in. As a result, the policy move itself is unlikely to drive sustained market reaction unless accompanied by a meaningful shift in messaging.

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Bitcoin: A case of confidence and patience

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 07:39:25 +0000

Bitcoin: A case of confidence and patience

As we continue to emphasize, any bouts of weakness in the crypto market still look very much like pullbacks within a broader and highly constructive medium and longer term uptrend.

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FOMC decision preview

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 06:59:25 +0000

FOMC decision preview

Attention now turns to the upcoming FOMC decision, where markets have already priced in a rate cut for October and anticipate another move before year-end.

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Gold’s glitter may be too bright

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 05:30:48 +0000

Gold’s glitter may be too bright

Gold’s spectacular surge beyond the $4,000 mark underscores a growing investor preference for the metal over the dollar, bolstered by expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and a Trump administration inclined toward a weaker currency. That said, we believe the time has come to be on guard for a meaningful short-term reversal.

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Why the yen selling may have overshot realities

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 06:20:53 +0000

Why the yen selling may have overshot realities

The yen has been under intense pressure in recent days, first on the back of the japan election result and then exacerbated by broad-based dollar demand as risk-off flows dominated global markets. However, with USDJPY surging, positioning now looks stretched. After all, the broader dollar downtrend remains intact, and we think the market may have overdone the aggressiveness of its yen sell-off.

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ECB decision preview and Euro outlook

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 07:34:42 +0000

ECB decision preview and Euro outlook

The European Central Bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at today’s meeting, with markets already having priced in a long pause on the back of resilient euro-area growth and inflation near target.

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FOMC decision preview

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 06:47:08 +0000

FOMC decision preview

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady at today’s meeting, constrained by tariff-driven inflation, geopolitical risks, and mixed economic data. The big focus will be on the dot plot and whether or not we see any hawkish tweaks.

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FOMC decision preview

Wed, 07 May 2025 10:02:23 +0000

FOMC decision preview

Today’s FOMC meeting will draw plenty of attention, as persistent inflation, robust April payrolls, and a positive ISM Services report suggest the Fed will likely resist President Trump’s pressure and hold rates steady.

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