LMAX Digital volumes were understandably quite soft on the post-Christmas holiday Monday trade. Total notional volume for Monday came in at 74 million, 58% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $39.4 million on Monday, 63% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $12.5 million, 65% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $4,172 and average position size for ether at 1,625.

Volatility has been anemic in 2022, and after seeing a little pick-up in recent weeks, we’re right back down to yearly low levels. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $380 and $44 respectively.

It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to see the crypto market going nowhere right now. We’re smack in the middle of holiday trade and activity isn’t expected to pick up until the middle of next week.

We have highlighted exceptionally low volatility in crypto assets right now – something that actually could be a positive sign looking out over the coming months. Studies show extended periods of low volatility as formidable times to increase exposure.

Fundamentally speaking, we continue to warn of risk for deeper setbacks in the first half of 2022. Traditional markets are still exposed to monetary policy adjustments from rising inflation, and crypto markets have added exposure from FTX fallout and regulatory response.

Technically speaking, the breakdown in bitcoin to a fresh yearly low in November ended a period of consolidation that opens the door for the next major downside extension, this time targeting the psychological barrier at $10k.

Having said that, we also believe the next major round of weakness will be the last ahead of the next big move to the topside. Despite all of the negative price action in 2022, institutional adoption has been moving in a more constructive direction, something that should be highly encouraging.