Good morning,
LMAX Close Wellington open
USDJPY 123.807 123.65-85 | EURUSD 1.09788 1.0965-74 | AUDUSD 0.72837 0.7261-90 | NZDUSD 0.65771 0.6556-97 | USDCAD 1.30465 1.3035-59 | USDCHF 0.96254 0.9587-0.9638 | GBPUSD 1.55149 1.5479-1.5523 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.84 | 123.43
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1015 | 1.0969
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 136.00 | 135.78
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7299 | 0.7264
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6604 | 0.6566
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3050 | 1.3024
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0583 | 1.0560
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9625 | 0.95985
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5539 | 1.5509
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7096 | 0.70685
For today
- EUR: A quiet opening with the market unchanged from Friday’s close with limited news over the weekend however, having dipped to the 1.0970 levels the market was unable to push any further and then started a steady rise over the session to push to the 1.1010 levels spiking into the 1.1015 level with the initial rise likely to be the move to the 136.00 areas in the EURJPY cross. Topside offers into the 1.1020 remain with the possibility of a push through likely to see weak stops and an opening to the 1.1080-1.1100 levels and similar offers to the 1.1000 areas, downside bids into the 1.0950 areas and congestion through the level and into the 1.0900 areas, those bids are likely to continue through the level and the market likely to struggle onto the 1.0850 areas increasing into the 1.0830-20 areas.
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.5510 levels and the Cable gradually moved to the 1.5530 levels before struggling in the area and then drifting back to the 1.5520 in very limited trading. Light offers just above and into the 1.5550 areas before the market opens up to the 1.5600 areas and then congestive from then on. Downside bids in the current areas and through the 1.5500 levels those bids are likely to be light but continual into the 1.5450 areas before breaking and opening up a deeper move to the 1.5350 areas.
- JPY: Early buying in EURJPY saw the USDJPY move off the 123.75 areas and move to just below 123.85 areas before starting a steady drift lower as the Euro continued rising and EURJPY pushed against the 136.00 levels, USDJPY was forced steadily into the 123.45-50 areas before finding some minor support and moved towards the London session holding that 123.50 areas. Topside offers light into the 124.00 levels with those offers increasing through the level with 124.30 likely to hold weak stops before running into further offerings into the 124.50-60 areas and the point where Kuroda last spoke out against a weak JPY. Downside bids likely to be around the 123.50 levels and into the 123.40 areas before opening a little with light bids into the 123.00 areas and the market likely to open to 122.50 areas and the possibility of a deeper move.
- AUD: Very quiet both data and movement for the Oz with the market opening on the low side around the 0.7270 areas then pushing slightly higher into the Tokyo opening and then continuing through the session to test to the 73 cent level before just as slow movement back into the 0.7280 areas. Topside offers now in the 73 cent levels likely to be light before the market opens on a break through the 0.7310-20 areas with the market likely to open to the stronger offers into the 0.7380 level. Downside bids into the 0.7260 areas with those bids likely to continue lightly to the 0.7230-20 areas where as we saw before bids likely to increase as the market approaches the 72 cent area.
Overnight News
JPY:
BOJ’s Nakaso: Japan Inflation Expectations Rising on the Whole
CNY:
China’s June Industrial Companies’ Profit Falls 0.3% Y/y
China Researchers See 2015 Jobless Rate 4%-4.1%: Sec. Journal
EUR:
ECB Rejects Greek Proposals for Bourse Opening: ASE Official
GBP/IDR:
U.K. Offers Indonesia GBP1b of Infrastructure Financing: Globe
NZD:
Key Says Pipeline of Auckland Building Activity Looks Positive
Fonterra 2015-16 Milk Payment May Be Less Than NZ$4: Westpac
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Jun A 0.40% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Jun C -0.30% | P -0.20%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Jul C 107.2 | P 107.4
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Jul C 112.9 | P 113.1
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Jul C 101.8 | P 102
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jun C 5.10% | P 5.00%
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Jul C -6 | P -7
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Jun C 3.50% | P -1.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Jun C 0.50% | P 0.50%
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Weekend News
GBP:
BOE’s Haldane Sees No Rush to Raise U.K. Interest Rates
Pearson in Talks to Sell Economist Stake Following FT Disposal
U.K. Relaxes Travel Advice for Iran, Foreign Secretary Says
EUR:
Greece’s Creditors to Begin Talks with Govt. Tuesday: Official
Greek Capital Controls Can Be Eased Once Bailout Done: Agora
Greek Exit from Euro Isn’t an Option, Deputy PM Dragasakis Says
Germany Will Help Fund Euro-Region Budget: Schaeuble in Spiegel
CNY:
China Probes Shareholders at 5 Listed Cos. on Stock Sales: Xinhua
China Finds $25b Delayed Projects Amid Infrastructure Push
China CSRC Probes 5 Cos. Over Alleged Disclosure Violations
CNY/EUR:
Volkswagen Has No Plans to Cut China Production, Spokesman Says
JPY/USD:
Japan Said to Mull Scrapping Most U.S. Chicken Tariffs: Nikkei
USD:
Fed Accidentally Released Confidential Staff Projections
CZK:
Czechs Should Delay Euro Adoption on Greece, Zeman Tells MF
NZD:
N.Z.’s Key Says Stamp Duty, Land Tax Are ‘Potentially Options’
New Zealand to Encourage Migrants to Settle Outside Auckland
TRY:
Turkey Parliament May Hold Extraordinary Meeting: PM Davutoglu
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Another quiet session with the summer volumes and spreads you would expect, opening around the 1.0985 areas the market only made limited gains and could not push through the 1.1000 level although the market did attempt it on a number of occasions and the first was from the opening onwards pushing to above 1.0990 before dropping away in mid-session to the 1.0970 levels, early London had a run at the level however, poorer PMI numbers saw that attempt quickly squashed and the market triggered weak stops on the move through the 1.0970 areas and the market eventually based off the 1.0930 levels with a similar story to the attempt topside. The move into the NYK session saw the market slowly recover the previous levels and a steady move to the 1.0980 areas remaining around the level into the close.
- GBP: Cable was very little different to the Euro in movement generally with the Cable unable to push to mush above the 1.5520 levels with the London market quickly selling the market back to 1.5470 dipping on a couple of occasions through the 1.5460 levels but then eventually starting a steady rise back through to the opening levels in a quiet session.
- JPY: USDJPY remained trapped on the topside, moving initially from the 123.90 levels to push through to the 124.05 areas before drifting back to the opening levels, the move into the London session saw the same move and eventually managed to push to 124.10 however, the move into the NYK session saw quick selling moving in as the topside again seemed to be to congested and the day traders took the weakest route and the USDJPY traded down into the 123.60 level before bouncing and closing around the 123.80 level in a very quiet and limited session.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7355 levels and barely scrapped through the 0.7360 level before running into the Tokyo session and the release of the CNY PMI numbers showing a decline and sending the Oz lower to the 0.7310 level and then trading steadily through to the 0.7270 areas before bouncing slightly but unable to push cleanly through the 73 cent levels and then trading quietly into the London session, as the market moved deeper into the London the market dipped steadily towards the 0.7260 areas but found some reasonable support sufficient to turn the market higher and a steady rise but only to the 0.7290 areas into the close.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance May A -60M | C 100M | P 350M | R 371M
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Jul A 51.4 | C 50.5 | P 50.1
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Jul A 48.2 | C 49.8 | P 49.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Jul A 51.5 | C 51.9 | P 51.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Jul A 53.7 | C 54 | P 53.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul A 52.5 | C 52.5 | P 52.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Jul A 53.8 | C 54.2 | P 54.4
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Jun A 482K | C 540K | P 546K | R 517K
Stay lucky
Andy
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