Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.937 | EURUSD 1.1251 | AUDUSD 0.7376 | NZDUSD 0.70578 | USDCAD 1.27772 | USDCHF 0.96438 | GBPUSD1.42571 |
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LMAX Ranges 6am London time
Highs   Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12600 | 1.12323
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.883 | 105.865
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.42699 | 1.41586
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96575 | 0.96388
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73856 | 0.73590
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28112 | 1.27693
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70612 | 0.70327
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08702 | 1.08394
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79365 | 0.78839
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.282 | 119.084
For today
- EUR: Euro’s traded a little lower as Brexit continues to dominate the markets and drag on the Euro a little, taking the market from the opening 1.1250 areas and drifting lightly through the 1.1235 areas before recovering late into the session to the opening levels, with little in the way of data the market is likely to remain focused on the UK, Topside offers light through the 1.1300 areas and a push through the 1.1330 is likely to see weak stops appearing and the market then running into light offers into the 1.1350 areas and then stronger offers as the market moves towards the 1.1380-1.1400 levels, downside bids into the 1.1220 areas with those bids likely to continue on a move through the 1.1200 areas, with likely weak stops being very light with congestion through to the 1.1100 and likely strong bids.
- GBP: Cable drifted from the opening and pushed steadily lower from the opening above the 1.4250 levels with weak stops triggered on a dip through the 1.4200 levels before bouncing and then holding around the 1.4180 areas through to the London session, Topside offers light through the 1.4250 areas and any Brexit news is likely to cause volatility through the day with possible weak stops through the 1.4260-70 areas and the market finding its self in a little bit of a short squeeze with little liquidity to counter the move and the 1.4350 areas likely vulnerable, downside bids likely through the 1.4150 areas however, these bids are likely to be light profit taking and for the moment the liquidity is likely to remain a problem and any strong push could see the 1.4000 areas tested, a very nervous currency for the moment.
- JPY: The JPY seems to be the safe haven choice and JPY buying again increased through the session with the market opening around the 106.80 levels and heading lower once the market opened in Tokyo to trade down to the 106.20 areas before finding some light bidding to slow the descent, the move through the figure was slow however, it did push onto the 105.80 areas before finding limited bids. Topside offers likely to be fairly strong now into a push above the 106.80 areas and increasing the further it pushes through the 107.00 levels a break through the 107.30 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing in the market and a quick move higher is a possibility with offers reappearing on a move to the 107.80 areas through to the 108.00 levels. Downside bids light into the 105.80 areas however those bids are likely to increase the closer you get to the 105.50 areas with a break there opening up the ranges from 2014 around the 104-102 areas.
- AUD: With a Bank holiday in Australia the market was a little quiet from the opening and the Oz held for the most part around the 0.7370 areas dipping to the 0.7360 area to set the low before slowly rising through the 0.7380 areas and holding around that level into the London session, Topside offers light through the 74 cent level with the possibility of weak stops on a move through the 0.7420 areas and into waiting offers around the 0.7450 levels and further stronger selling as the market tests towards the 75 cent levels. Downside bids into the current lows and likely to be light for a move through to the 0.7340 areas with weakness then reappearing on a move through the 73 cent level.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
CNY:
Dip in retail sales otherwise figures are in line with expectations
Yuan falls most in two months as trading resumes after the holiday
KRW:
Massive Cyber-attack thwarted after Sth Korea was hacked
Equities:
Red across the board, with Brexit and Abenomics continuing to weigh on the markets.
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q2 A -11.1 | C -2.1 | P -7.9
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y May A 6.00% | C 6.00% | P 6.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y May A 10.00% | C 10.10% | P 10.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y May A 9.60% | C 10.40% | P 10.50%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: USD rose steadily through the session with the Asian market seeing early selling of the Euro from the opening areas around the 1.1315 level having failed to push through the 1.1320, the market tested below the 1.1300 levels and remained below the area for the most part into the London session, German CPI numbers inline with the previous month and consensus did little to bolster the market and the rally that did appear took the market only back to the 1.1320 area to fail after an extended period trying, dipping back eventually to the 1.1280’s before holding into the NYK session, the market ranged through the early part of NYK and only as the London session moved to the close did the market break through the downside and a steady decline ensued to the 1.1250 areas to make the lows for the day.
- GBP: Quiet through the Asian session the market held around the 1.4450 levels through into the London session, before starting a slow decline back to the 1.4400 areas, late into the NYK session again saw Brexit as the main focus of the day and as we move closer to the 23 June the liquidity problems are likely to increase and the market moving around quickly on very little, having triggered weak stops through the 1.4400 areas the market dipped again to the next sentimental levels and although the move was less clean the break lower eventually saw a quick rout and the market dipped through the 1.4200 as the sellers cleared the market of bids before bouncing back to hold the 1.4250 areas into the close for the day.
- JPY: Overall a quiet day for the USDJPY with the market unable to push beyond the 107.20 with any momentum and struggling through the Asian session trying to hold the 107.00 level, with the dip into the London session seeing the market move to the 106.70 areas for any weak stops, the market continued to range through the London session unable to break either level and moved into the NYK session slowly rising through to the highs again, late selling in the Cable moved into the GBPJPY and the USDJPY was dragged lower by the sudden move and the USDJPY pushed to below the 106.60 levels to extend the low a little before rally to the close to finish only just short of the opening levels.
- AUD: The Oz saw steady selling through the session with nothing major moving from the opening above the 0.7430 levels to hold the 0.7410 areas through the Asian session, the move into London saw light selling to test below the 74 cent levels however, it was light and the market remained for the most part above the level through towards the end of NYK before beginning a steady decline once the option expiry for the day passed with the Oz slowly drifting to the 0.7370 areas before holding into the close.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y May A -4.20% | C -4.20% | P -4.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Apr A 1.40% | C 0.70% | P -0.70% | R -0.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M May (F) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y May (F) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment May A 13.8K | C 1.1K | P -2.1K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May A 6.90% | C 7.10% | P 7.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Jun (P) A 94.3 | C 94.1 | P 94.7
Stay lucky
Andy
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