Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.433 | EURUSD 1.07301 | AUDUSD 0.75601 | NZDUSD 0.70378 | USDCAD 1.33816 | USDCHF 0.99615 | GBPUSD 1.28413 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07355 | 1.07171
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.685 | 108.391
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28606 | 1.28181
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99767 | 0.99584
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75633 | 0.75216
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34027 | 1.33746
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70526 | 0.70388
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06937 | 1.06883
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83618 | 0.83476
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 116.607 | 116.278
For Today
- EUR: A steady drift lower after the early highs into the mid 1.0730’s testing down to the 1.0720 areas with light volume on the day, Topside offers continue through to the 1.0760 areas with some congestion likely to continue through the level and into the 1.0800 areas with stronger offers likely in the area, even through the level the market is likely to struggle until a break of the 1.0820 areas with weak stops likely to appear on a move into the 1.0850 areas with possible lighter offers from there until the 1.0900 areas, a push through the level will likely see stops quickly appearing and the market running to the strong sentimental 1.1000. Downside bids light through the 1.0700 levels with congestive bids likely on a move through to the stronger 1.0650 areas however, weak stops are likely through the level with the market again targeting the 1.0550-1.0600 range.
- GBP: Early trading into the Tokyo session saw the market testing through to the 1.2860 levels from the opening around the 1.2840 areas however, the market saw light profit taking moving in and the slow drift lower to test to the 1.2820 areas and holding into the grey hour just off the low. Downside bids light through to the 1.2770 areas with very little likely to have had time to accumulate around the 1.2800 areas, a push through the 1.2750 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing and the market then moving towards limited bids into 1.2700 areas however, there is possibly bids awaiting and likely to meet support entering the market, light stops then open the market to a return to the previous ranges, Topside offers into the 1.2900 levels likely to be strongest point with only limited congestion on a move through the level with stops likely on a decent break to open up higher ranges with some congestion into the 1.3000 levels
- JPY: USDJPY moved towards the 108.70 levels in early trading however, the market struggled and soon slipped back to the opening areas and ranged for awhile around the 108.50 areas before pushing towards the grey hours around the 108.60 level, Topside sees light congestion through to the 109.00 areas with offers likely to strengthen around the level through to the 109.20 areas, likely weak stops through the area and only light offers from there into the 1.0980 areas where the market is likely to see stronger offers moving in around the 110.00 levels with a break possibly seeing stronger stops on a run into the 110.50 areas. Downside bids for the moment into the 108.30 areas and likely to continue through to the 108.00 areas with further bids into the 107.50 areas, some possibility of stops on a move through the 108.00 areas and the market openings quickly for a test towards the 106.00 areas with limited support expected.
- AUD: Oz continues to move back towards the 75 cent levels with the support over the past few months looking less impressive than it did after the minutes yesterday, however, the 75 cent down through to 0.7480 has already been tested this month and looks to be key for the moment to keeping the market from dipping back to the 73 cent areas, Topside offers through to the 76 cent area are not likely to be particularly strong however, there is likely to be a continuation of congestion on the move back to the level and stronger offers possibly appearing around the level for the time being with any push through the level likely to see stronger offers quickly appearing and a long way from the 77 cent areas.
Overnight News
GBP:
May sees election opportunity in Brexit economy’s sweet spot
USD:
Trump team bluster exposed as aircraft carrier heading in opposite direction
Trump seeks headway on Buy American, Hire American pledge
US Military considers shooting down N.Korea missile tests
Fed’s George: Continuing with rate rises is necessary
US House panel to begin hearings on tax reforms next week
Trump health care bill will happen
USD/JPY:
Pence reassures Japan of US resolve on N.Korea, to work with China
IMF:
Warns of growing risks to improving global recovery
CNY:
China carmakers may be destroyed if foreign caps lifted
JPY:
BoJ mulls trimming inflation estimate slightly BBG
S&P Japan ratings affirmed A+/A-1 outlook remains stable
EUR:
EU’s Verhofstadt: Britons can show EU preferences in election
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Mar A 0.10% | P -0.10%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Feb C 18.6B | P 15.7B
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Mar C 0.40% | P 0.40%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Mar (F) C 1.50% | P 1.50%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Mar (F) C 0.70% | P 0.70%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -2.2M
18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Federal Beige Book
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The market traded through the Asian session around the 1.0640-50 levels and into London holding the 1.0650 area the market did awaken but the little bit of news about a General election in the UK, Euro’s broke higher with the market steadily pushing to the 1.0700 areas and retreating on the first push before breaking through and triggering some weak stops on a move through to the 1.0730 areas topping just above the level before holding quietly through to the close.
- GBP: Not something I envisaged for the day with the market holding around the 1.2560 levels from the opening and gradually rising through to test the 1.2600 areas into the early London session, the release of the news of a General Election for the 8th June saw the knee jerk reaction of sellers taking the market away from the 1.2600 level to test to the 1.2520 areas before the market started to think through the process, a stronger mandate for the Government would give them space and the ability to push through the negotiations with little if any interference from other parties, this doing away with all the horse trading, that is if all goes to plan and the election plays out with very little thought on Brexit as such, however, even if it becomes a pseudo in and out referendum the likelihood is that the remain vote would be split in several parties and the Brexit voters would remain true to form with the Government still getting that mandate to does as it wishes more or less. The Cable then started to rally as the news spread through the world with the 1.2600 level breaking easily and the strong buyers pushing it to the 1.2670 areas before pausing into the NYK session, the market then saw a steady grind through to the 1.2750 levels with the market eventually breaking through to test the 1.2800 levels quickly and a short squeeze saw the market touch above the 1.2900 levels in a spike as what shorts there were panicked, the squeeze over saw the market then running around the 1.2850 levels and the best it’s been since the “flash crash†in October.
- JPY: Opening around the 108.90 levels the USDJPY made early gains to push through the 109.00 areas in a push through to the 109.20 areas before drifting through to the opening levels as the market moved towards the grey hour, the move into the London session saw the USDJPY drifting off the highs to trade through to the NYK session ranging around the 108.70 areas with initially little movement as Cable rallied, the end of the London session saw the market dropping quickly back to the 108.40 levels with a minor dip into the 108.30’s before closing quietly.
- AUD: The Oz opened around the 0.7590 levels and scraped through the 0.7595 areas before the RBA minutes were released, the market reacted quickly to the dovish tone of the minutes with concerns on employment and the housing bubble causing the problem, the market dipped back to the 0.7550 areas for a quiet move through to the London session, the opening in London saw the market drifting lower as the London session reacted to the minutes however, the market traded quietly through to the NYK session with the market basing on the 0.7535 areas but unable to truly penetrate the 0.7550 areas, what recovery there was, was limited with the market closing around the 0.7560 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Minutes Apr
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Feb A 38.84B | C 5.21B | P 6.20B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Mar A 1.22M | C 1.28M | P 1.29M | R 1.30M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Mar A 1.26M | C 1.26M | P 1.213M | R 1.22M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Mar A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Mar A 76.10% | C 76.00% | P 75.40%
Good Luck,
Andy
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