Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.094 | EURUSD 1.09265 | AUDUSD 0.75353 | NZDUSD 0.69468 | USDCAD 1.35715 | USDCHF 0.9937 | GBPUSD 1.28401 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09486 | 1.09235
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.403 | 110.977
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28437 | 1.28303
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99376 | 0.99203
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75578 | 0.7506
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35785 | 1.35573
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69564 | 0.69215
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08655 | 1.08522
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85286 | 0.8512
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.956 | 121.266
For Today
- EUR: Moving into the Tokyo session the market attempted a weak push at the 1.0950 levels barely making it above the 1.0940 areas before slowly holding just below the level through to the grey hour in very quiet trading, topside offers through to the 1.0960 levels with a little weakness for a short distance before the market see’s stronger offers into the 1.0980-1.1000 levels with possibly strong sentimental sellers in the area and congestion likely to continue through to the 1.1060-80 areas, the market could see some stops however, having moved into the ranges from last year the market is likely to find congestion waiting. Downside bids light through to the 1.0840 levels before decent bids start to move into the market with strength building into the 1.0810 level especially however, with talk of the ECB likely to change QE tack in June the downside is likely to be stronger for the moment.
- GBP: Very quiet for the Cable with a limited move higher pushing above the 1.2840 levels having opened above the 1.2830 level, limited interest in GBP for the moment with interest rate rises on hold because of Brexit however, how long this thinking continues remains to be seen, Topside offers into the 1.2850 level likely to see some weak stops possibly light through the level and better offers likely into the 1.2900 areas however, a push through this level sees the market open a little with weak sentimental levels through to the bottom of the break lower in Oct, 1.3050 likely holds some strong offers for the moment but long term they are possibly vulnerable. Downside bids light through to the 1.2750 areas with sentimental and longer term view as a base area however, a test through the level will likely see the downside opening quickly with limited support suspected apart for the sentimental areas with stronger bids moving in around the 1.2630-00 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY moved a little higher from the opening around 111.10 having tested the 111.00 areas in early trading, the move into Tokyo fully saw the market running to the 111.40 areas before slowing and while volume was ok the movement was limited and the market drifted back to hold around the 111.20 areas for the bulk of the session, offers into the 111.50 levels is likely to see weak stops appearing behind the level with stronger offers likely to move in around the 111.80-112.20 level likely weak stops on the move through however, this will likely put the market up against stronger offers and congestion into last month’s ranges. Downside bids light for the moment back into the 110.00 areas with light stops through the level and possible stronger bids into the 109.50 areas, with weak stops limited, and congestion through the level down into the 109.00 area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7535 levels the market ranged between 0.7535-45 areas and into the inflationary numbers, the initial move was through to test towards the 0.7560 areas before droppi9ng quickly lower, with the initial move in line with the RBA’s target however, the weaker numbers would suggest another delay to any interest rises for the moment the market tested through towards the 0.7505 quickly and has struggled through the session to regain some of the losses. Topside offers into the 0.7570 areas likely to continue into 76 cent and probably strong however, even through the level the market will find continual congestion through on that handle with the offers likely to continue to build as the market pushes towards the 77cent areas, downside bids into the 75 cent likely to continue through the level with weak stops on a move possibly through the 0.7470 areas with congestion likely to be not far below the level to absorb the move and the market remaining tight for the time being.
Overnight News
USD:
Trump tax plan will sharply slash corporate tax rates
US misunderstands Nafta, North American business body says
US judge blocks Trump financial pressure on sanctuary cities
Eager for 100-day wins. Trump eyes govt. funding, border, taxes
Trump picks trade fight with Canada
USD/KRW:
US Thaad Missile defence equipment enter S.Korean site Yonhap
CNY:
Economists see faster China growth, moderate consumer inflation
AUD:
Australia’s annual core inflation nears central bank’s target
Oz dragged lower by underwhelming inflation
JPY:
Small Business confidence Apr 48.6 vs consensus 49.4
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q1 A 2.10% | C 2.20% | P 1.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q1 A 1.90% | C 1.80% | P 1.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q1 A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q1 A 1.70% | C 1.80% | P 1.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb A 0.70% | C 0.60% | P 0.10% | R 0.40%
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Mar P 1.5
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 2.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Feb C -0.30% | P 1.70%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -1.0M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet move through the Asian session with the market opening around the 1.0870 levels and drifting through the session to test towards the 1.0850 levels into mid-session, the market started a slow recovery into the grey hours before holding steady around the 1.0870 level into the London opening, with the French result in the market yield buyers moved into the market with EUR/JPY rising steadily through the session, with the cross pushing from close to the 119.00 areas through to push above the 121.60, this cross buying saw the Euro pushing through to the 1.0900 levels into the London session and the move into NYK session saw a stronger move into the 1.0950 levels before hitting sufficient offers to curb the move and a quiet drift back to the 1.0930 area for the close.
- GBP: Again the Cable struggled through the session, with early trading seeing the market drift from the opening around the 1.2790 areas down to the 1.2775 level basing along that level through to the grey hour, early buyer into the grey hours saw the market quickly push above the 1.2800 areas before moving again on the official London open, and the market then slowly moved through the session pushing from the 1.2820 areas to struggle towards the 1.2850 level and stronger offers. One assumes that yield buyers are still a little nervous about Brexit rather than voting in Europe.
- JPY: USDJPY moved steadily higher through the session with the Japanese obviously happy to now invest into the Eurozone area again after the French election and the yield players appeared in concerted buying throughout each session, opening around the 109.80 the only blip on the day saw the market slip to the lows around the 109.60 areas into the Tokyo session and slowly rising through the Asian session struggling just above the 110.00 areas and unable to push through the 110.20 areas, the move into the London session again saw the steady buying reappear and the market moved in a tight channel to the 110.60 areas for the move into the NYK session only for the process to reappear and a tight channelled push through the 111.00 areas with the market running into offers to contain the market below the 111.20 level.
- AUD: The Oz was contained as usual in a fairly quiet range, opening around the 0.7565 levels the early market rose only to the 0.7570 areas before slipping slowly through the session down towards the 0.7550 areas and ranging for a good portion of the session around the 0.7555 level, the move into the London session saw the market quickly dip to the 0.7535 levels and range through the session around that area with minor dips towards the 0.7520 areas before recovering a few times to that central 0.7535 area.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Mar A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Mar A 4.4B | C 2.6B | P 1.1B | R -0.7B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Feb A 0.80% | C 0.30% | P 0.00% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Feb A 5.90% | C 5.80% | P 5.73%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Mar A 621K | C 584K | P 592K | R 587K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Apr A 120.3 | C 122.5 | P 125.6 | R 124.9
Good Luck,
Andy
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