Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.627 | EURUSD 1.14786 | AUDUSD 0.77988 | NZDUSD 0.73217 | USDCAD 1.26957 | USDCHF 0.96251 | GBPUSD 1.30545 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15371 | 1.14731
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.659 | 111.987
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31002 | 1.30518
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96335 | 0.9590
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79059 | 0.77866
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27009 | 1.26456
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73471 | 0.72625
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10692 | 1.10458
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88214 | 0.87866
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.517 | 129.062
For today
- EUR: Euro’s drifted initially from the opening just below the 1.1480 areas testing towards the 1.1470 level in what appeared to be the same type of day as yesterday however, the market awoke as the RBA minutes were released with Oz rising quickly it turned the market into USD sellers against everything, with the Euro breaking through the 1.1500 in a rush and pushing to the 1.1520 level before finding some resistance, the rise slowed and then stalled unable to push through the 1.1540 level and slipped slowly back to the 1.1525 areas for the move into the grey hours, the move through saw all classes of buyers with models and real money the larger players. Topside offers remain into the 1.1540-60 area however for the moment the market is open to the highs from last year extending to the 1.1600-20 areas where the market is likely to see stronger offers appearing again, the manner of the break would suggest that what options there were are now cleared. Downside bids weak through the 1.1500 areas and likely to see weak stops on a move back through the 1.1480 areas and opening up the downside with congestion through to the 113. Handle
- GBP: Cable moved into the Tokyo session in a very narrow range with the market holding around the 1.3055 areas and unable or unwilling to take the step back through the 1.3050 level for the moment. The movement in the AUDUSD was sufficient to see the GBP rising as the crosses came perilously close to downside break outs, Cable quickly pushed back through the 1.3090 and then slowly edged higher to test the 1.3100 level again, it failed and drifted as the market ran out of steam holding around the 1.3090 level through to the grey hour. Topside offers into the 1.3110 areas and for the moment seem to have plenty of profit taking in the area, a push through will likely see some weak stops appearing with sentimental offers into the 1.3150 areas before stronger offers appear around the 1.3200 levels. Downside bids into the 1.3050 level are likely to be weak however, for the moment that seems to be the base of the narrow band with weak stops likely on a break back through to test the 1.3000 and possible stronger bids before running into congestion on the move back onto the 1.29 handle.
- JPY: Opening around the 112.65 areas the market struggled through into the Tokyo session and steady selling moved into the market, the USDJPY moved through the first half opf the session trading in a tight channel lower and stalled initially at the 112.20 areas before the RBA minutes again started further selling with the market extending its lows to just below the 112.00 area before finding some support and holding into the grey hour around the 112.10 level, Topside offers through the 112.90 level and likely into the 113.20 area before stops appear with the market then facing light congestion on a run towards the 113.50 levels, downside bids into the 112.00 areas with a move through the 111.80 area likely to see stops appearing and the market opening to the congestion 111.50 areas, with only congestive bids the market is likely to slow its decent however, a push through the 111.00 areas and the stronger bids is likely to see the market dropping quickly with very little once the 110.50 area is cleared.
- AUD: The Oz started to drift lower on the move into the Tokyo session with the market having traded around the 78 cent level from the opening it dipped through the 0.7790 areas as cross selling took the stage, the RBA minute release saw the Oz rally from its lows sharply easily triggering some weak stops and the market started to slow a little on the push to the 0.7870 area, the rise didn’t stop it just slowed a little as it ground its way through the waiting offers into the 79 cent areas pushing through only marginally before drifting back a little into the 0.7880 areas for a second run at the level only to sneak a little further, Topside offers into the 79 cent level continue with a push through opening a test towards the 80 cent level appearing with the level not seen since mid 2015 the market is likely to struggle around the level with possible option interest appearing as well as the lucky 8 syndrome, possible light congestion on a move towards the level around the 0.7940-60 areas however, one would suspect large stops on a push through the 80 cent level and opening up the potential for another couple of big figures over time. Downside bids light back through to the 78 cent area, with weak stops likely along the way however, a drop below the area will likely see stronger stops appearing especially on a move back through the 0.7775 areas.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
AUD:
RBA was more hawkish/positive about the economy in general
Noted 3 positive employment numbers in a row
With broader growth and inflation
NZD:
Surprise drop in the CPI numbers saw the Kiwi drop quickly 70 pips
USD:
Health care plan seems to be dead for now as Republican’s back away
White House reveals goals ahead of NAFTA talks with Canada, Mexico
CNY:
New committee set up to coordinate chaotic financial markets Central Bank official
EUR:
Draghi to reassure markets as ECB plots exit course
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q2 A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 1.00%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q2 A 1.70% | C 1.90% | P 2.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Minutes July
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non Resident Bond Holdings Jun A 61.50% | P 61.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun C 0.20% | P 0.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun C 2.90% | P 2.90%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Jun C 2.60% | P 2.60%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Jun C 0.40% | P 0.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Jun C 3.60% | 3.70%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Jun C -0.90% | P -1.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Jun C 9.30% | P 11.60%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Jun C 0.10% | P 0.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Jun C 3.40% | P 3.60%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Jun C 0.10% | P 0.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Jun C 2.80% | P 2.80%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y May C 3.00% | P 5.60%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul C 18 | P 18.6
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Jul C 88 | P 88
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul C 37.2 | P 37.7
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Jun C -0.20% | P -0.30%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Jul C 67 | P 67
20:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows May C 20.3B | P 1.8B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Overall a very slow day without the Japanese in the market, opening around the 1.1470 levels the market was unable to push much beyond that level slipping through to the grey hour testing along the 1.1460, early Europeans tested to the 1.1450 level and early London pushed it down into the 1.1435 area to make the lows for the day and the release ot the Eurozone CPI numbers, with a marginal change over last May’s numbers the Euro lifted slowly back through to the NYK session testing the opening levels, and the move through to the NYK option cut saw the market briefly make a push through the 1.1480 areas before declining back to the opening levels for a long drawn out move to the close slowly rising back to the 1.1480 level.
- GBP: Having finished the week prior on a high the early traders saw the market again pushing off the 1.3100 levels to attempt to push through the 1.3110 areas with some conviction however, although the market spent the first few hours pushing around that area it eventually settled into a slow drifting lower with only brief attempts to recapture the impetus, weak stops and profit taking saw the Cable drift lower through the session and there was very little in it through to the NYK session where brief spurts of buying kept the market away from the 1.3050 levels however, the lack of interest again saw the Cable drifting and the end of London saw the market holding the 1.3050-60 levels through to the close.
- JPY: A tight range through the Asian session saw the USDJPY drifting from the opening to test the 112.40 areas before slowly rising back through the 112.50 opening level and trading to the 112.70 level in a light market, the move into the London session saw the market peak just below the 112.80 levels before starting a slow slip back into the 112.30 area as it moved into the NYK session, the market tested quickly higher around the NYK option cut pushing back to test above the 112.80 levels before a slow move to the close holding around the 112.60 levels.
- AUD: Opening unchanged from Friday the Oz drifted through into the London session from the opening around 0.7830 level to below 0.7810 with little interest in the market, the market was unable to truly test lower, and as the market moved towards the NYK session slowly recovered its losses, NYK tried to push the market through the 0.7840 levels and as with the other markets the NYK option cut seemed to have some effect with the market dropping off those highs to the 0.7810 levels and then slowly drift to the 78 cent level and meander around the figure through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Rightmove House Prices M/M Jul A 0.10% | P -0.40%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Jun A 11.00% | C 10.60% | P 10.70%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Jun A 8.60% | C 8.50% | P 8.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Jun A 7.60% | C 6.50% | P 6.50%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q2 A 6.90% | C 6.80% | P 6.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Jun A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jun (F) A 1.30% | C 1.30% | P 1.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jun (F) A 1.10% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) May A 29.5B | C 9.78B | P 10.60B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Jul A 9.8 | C 15 | P 19.8
Good Luck,
Andy
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