Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.101 | EURUSD 116.416 | AUDUSD 0.79238 | NZDUSD 0.7433 | USDCAD 1.25103 | USDCHF 0.9433 | GBPUSD 1.30286 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16637 | 1.1631
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.345 | 110.945
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30362 | 1.30143
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94795 | 0.94602
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79454 | 0.79028
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25180 | 1.24904
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74448 | 0.74015
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10389 | 1.10207
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89519 | 0.89313
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16637 | 1.1631
For today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1640 areas the market drifted a little into the Tokyo session to hold around the 1.1635 areas before starting a steady rise higher through the second half of the session to test to the 1.1665 areas then holding into the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.1670 levels and continuing through to the 1.1700 areas with possibly strong offers into that area, which also is likely to coincide with offers in the EURGBP into the 0.9000 level, a break in either is likely to see stops appearing and a bit of a run with only sentimental levels on a run to the 1.1800 level. Downside bids light back through the 1.1600 with possible weak stops on a move through the 1.1580 level and weakness through to the 1.1500 areas where the market is likely to see some stronger bids.
- GBP: A little weakness into the Tokyo session testing through to the 1.3015 area before starting a steady rise through to the 1.3030 level in quiet trading. Topside offers light through the 1.3050 areas with some stronger resistance on a move to the 1.3100 area, a push through may see some weak stops opening a chance of the 1.3150 areas however, from there it is likely to be fairly resistant with a strong push through seeing stronger offers into the 1.3200 level. Downside bids light back through the 1.3000 areas with congestive orders through to the 1.2950 area and into 1.2900 where the better bids appear, some weak stops through the level and congestion is likely to continue through to the stronger 1.2850 level.
- JPY: USDJPY rose weakly through into the Tokyo session testing through the 111.30 areas before falling back, with a poll placing Ishiba above Abe as Top choice for premier. USDJPY fell back to the 111.00 areas the market dipped through the level before holding around the figure through into the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 111.50 areas with possible weak stops on a move through however, stronger offers into the 112.00 areas with congestive offers likely through the level with 112.50 likely to see stronger stops appearing. Downside bids into 110.50 with limited bids until the market moves towards the 110.00 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 109.80.
- AUD: Early sellers as the market tested through towards the 79 cent level with some weak selling towards the figure, before bouncing quickly back and squeezing out some weak shorts on a move to the 0.7945 levels before holding into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 0.7970 level and into the 80 cent areas, possibly strong stops on a push through the level and the market quiet possibly opening to larger gains however, option players may have other things on their mind, Downside bids into the 79 cent level are likely to be reasonable and through to the 0.7880 level before weak stops appear and the market opens to the 0.7840 area and stronger bids start to appear.
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Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Advisor Kushner: all actions were proper and no collusion with the Russian
Pres. Trump says senate republicans must fulfil promises to repeal and replace Obamacare
CHF:
SNB’s Jordan reiterates Swiss Franc still significantly overvalued
Maintains negative rates and interventions
IMF/CAD:
IMF predicts Canada will pass the US to top G7 growth this year
China prepares for a crisis along N. Korean Border
EUR:
German car shares collapse on allegations of collusion
ECB’s Mersch, ongoing expansion in Euro offers confidence
Mersch says global recover is firming, broadening
IMF/GBP:
IMF Cuts UK forecast as Brexit inflation knocks consumers (deja vu)
CNY:
Economists raise China GDP forecast after growth beats estimates
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Minutes June Meeting
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Jun C -0.70% | P -1.00%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Jul C 114.9 | P 115.1
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Jul C 106.5 | P 106.8
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Jul C 123.8 | P 124.1
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Jul C 12 | P 16
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M May C 0.50% | P 0.70%
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y May C 5.80% | P 5.67%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Jul C 116 | P 118.9
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet session overall with European PMI numbers mixed as usual with the Eurozone numbers over shadowing the market a little, opening around the 1.1665 areas the market moved steadily to challenge the 1.1685 areas into the Tokyo session before dipping back to the opening levels to trade in a narrow 1.1665-75 areas through to the London session, the mixed numbers saw the market dropping back in the first hour trading through to the 1.1635 levels with the market trading choppily through to the NYK session, the market again tested the lows and the range stepped down to trade around the 1.1640 areas with the low towards the 1.1625 area before closing around the 1.1640 areas.
- GBP: Cable saw a consolidation above the 1.3000 levels through the day with the market opening just below the level and the market then steadily rising though to the grey hour pushing the 1.3020 level, early London saw the drag of the Euro taking the Cable down to the 1.2990 areas before bouncing back through the 1.3000 level and again stalling at the 1.3020 areas, a brief pause before continuing the rise pushing through to the 1.3050 level before moving into the NYK session holding around the 1.3030 level, a quick stab higher in the last hour of London to test to the 1.3058 level however, the push through saw sufficient resistance for a frail move and the market dipped back to hold around the 1.3030 through to the close.
- JPY: Opening slightly higher the USDJPY pushed to an early high to the 111.20 level before moving into the Tokyo session dropping back quickly to the 110.80 areas, from there the market slowly regained the opening levels into the grey hour, Early sellers again sold the USDJPY back with a quick move to the 110.85 areas and a steady push through to early morning to hold the 110.65 levels, and having made a new low the market again started a long steady rise through the rest of the London session pushing to the 111.20 levels just after London left before drifting to a close only slightly higher than the opening.
- AUD: Oz opened a little lower filling the gap in early trading and spiking to the 0.7930 areas before slowly rising from the 0.7915 areas again into the Tokyo session, the move through to the London session saw the market back to the 0.7925-30 levels and the market opening in London saw the Oz rising to the 0.7950 area as the day traders took advantage of a weak topside to the 0.7970 areas that is where the market eventually moved before dropping back to the 0.7950 areas as the sellers above appeared as before, London close saw the early buyers closing out there longs and the market dropping back to the opening levels to close some 15pips or so above the opening.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jul (P) A 52.2 | C 52.3 | P 52.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Jul (P) A 55.4 | C 54.6 | P 54.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Jul (P) A 55.9 | C 56.7 | P 56.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Jul (P) A 58.3 | C 59.2 | P 59.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Jul (P) A 53.5 | C 54.3 | P 54
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul (P) A 56.8 | C 57.2 | P 57.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Jul (P) A 55.4 | C 55.4 | P 55.4
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Sales M/M May A 0.90% | C 0.50% | P 1.00% | R 0.80%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index Jun A 1.60% | P 1.30% | R 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jul (P) A 53.2 | C 52.2 | P 52
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Jul (P) A 54.2 | C 54 | P 54.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Jun A 5.52M | C 5.59M | P 5.62M
Good Luck,
Andy
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