Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.643 | EURUSD 1.1780 | AUDUSD 0.78514 | NZDUSD 0.72981 | USDCAD 1.27227 | USDCHF 0.97215 | GBPUSD 1.29642 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17929 | 1.17683
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.280 | 109.641
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29703 | 1.29538
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97377 | 0.97195
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78769 | 0.78511
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27338 | 1.27185
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73118 | 0.72859
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14785 | 1.14473
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90944 | 0.90803
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.930 | 129.135
For today
- EUR: A little bit more active however, given the ranges its difficult to see in the Euro, dipping into the Tokyo session to test the 1.1770 levels before rising slowly to test the 1.1790 level struggling for a few hours around the level before slipping back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hour, downside sees weak bids into the 1.1740 area with bids then building on a move through the 1.1720 areas and through to 1.1680, there could be some weak stops however, the market is likely to see decent bids appearing around the 1.1650 level before opening to a deeper move once the 1.1640 level breaks, Topside offers light back through the 1.1800 areas with congestive offers likely through the 1.1840-60 areas and increasing as the market moves towards the 1.1900 areas and stops likely to appear on a strong move through the 1.1920 areas.
- GBP: A small dip into the Tokyo session saw the market test the 1.2955 level before moving back to push the 1.2970 level and a quiet range from that point around the 1.2965 level to the grey hour. Topside offers weak through the 1.3000 levels with offers increasing into the 1.3020 areas, likely stronger offers then into the 1.3050 areas lighter offers once through the level with limited offers into the 1.3100 areas and the market then finding some limited congestion beyond. Downside bids into the 1.2950 area likely to slow the market a little with congestive bids through the area and then weak stops likely to appear for a run at the 1.2900-10 areas and stronger bids possible.
- JPY: With little news the USDJPY pushed from the lows just after the opening to break through the 109.80 level and trigger some weak stops into the Tokyo fixing session to test the 109.90 level and then grind through the 110.00 areas to hold around the 110.20 level, from that point on though the market struggled for traction and traded around the 110.20 levels through to the grey hour. Topside congestion into the 110.50 areas with a move through the level then facing a stronger offering around the 111.00 areas, weak stops likely on a test through the 111.20 areas and opening a move to the 111.80 level where stronger offers are likely. Downside bids light back through the 110.00 areas with weak stops likely to appear on a move through the 109.80 areas and a quick test to the 109.50 areas with congestive bids likely to appear and then increase the closer to the 109.00 areas the market moves.
- AUD: With the RBA minutes released the Oz started to move steadily higher from the opening lows around the 0.7850 areas, testing initially to the 0.7865 level and then pushing another 10 pips in mid-session and holding for a good portion of the session around that 0.7875 level, the move to the grey hour saw the market slipping back to the opening levels. Offers into the 79 cent level likely to continue through to the 0.7920 before light stops appear with more offers into the 0.7950 areas, through there though congestive offers appear and the market is likely to struggle towards the 80 cent level and strong offers. Downside bids into the 0.7840 levels with weak stops on a move through the level and possibly only light bids into the 78 cent areas with the 0.7775 area becoming vulnerable and a deeper move lower appearing.
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Overnight News                                                                 Â
KRW:
Kim Jung Un has discussed ground strike plan with officers
Discussed report from the Army to launch missiles toward Guam
Orders Army to be ready to strike at all times if he makes the decision
- Korea says Kim Jong Un will watch actions of US a little bit more
Will not attack Guam yet, could change mind based on US actions
USD:
Fed’s Dudley: Market expectations not unreasonable on Sep balance sheet
Fed’s Dudley: says he expects inflation to move somewhat higher
Manchin asks Trump to prevent Chinese buyout of Chicago exchange
Trump signs memo directing probe into China’s industrial production practices
Trump says he is directing US treasury to examine China’s actions on theft of American intellectual property
Trump says US will enforce the rules of fair and reciprocal trade
Trump says this is one big move, this just the beginning
Fed says 1 year ahead inflation expectations unchanged in July
Fed July household income growth expectations 3% vs. 2.7% in June
Fed July household spending expectations fell to 2.8% vs. 3.3%
US Secretary of Defence Mattis warns we could escalate into war very quickly amid possible N. Korea missile moves
AUD:
RBA minutes were largely unchanged after they kept the rates unchanged in Aug
RBA recent data suggest GDP growth increased in Jun quarter
RBA consumption growth forecast could be curbed by wages, debt
RBA further rise in AUD could lead to slower growth, lower inflation
RBA judged steady policy consistent with growth and inflation targets in Aug meeting
RBA Carefully monitoring the household balance sheets
ANZ weekly consumer confidence falls 1.8% to 111.7
CNY:
Cooling of real estate fever ripples through Chinese economy
China tightens noose on N. Korea but warns trump over trade
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Minutes Aug
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jun (F) A 2.20% | C 1.60% | P 1.60%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) C 0.70% | P 0.60%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Jul C 0.00% | P -0.10%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jul C 0.00% | P -0.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jul C 0.00% | P 0.00%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jul C 2.70% | P 2.60%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Jul C 2.50% | P 2.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Jul C 0.10% | P 0.20%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Jul C 3.50% | P 3.50%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Jul C 0.40% | P -0.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Jul C 6.90% | P 9.90%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Jul C 0.00% | P 0.00%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Jul C 3.10% | P 3.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Jul C 0.10% | P 0.20%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Jul C 2.50% | P 2.90%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y Jun C 4.30% | P 4.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Jul C 0.10% | P -0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Index Aug C 10.3 | P 9.8
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Jul C 0.40% | P -0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Jul C 0.30% | P -0.20%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Aug C 64 | P 64
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Jun C 0.40% | P 0.30%
20:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Jun P 91.9B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A reasonably quiet Asian session saw the Euro opening unchanged for the week and then trading around the 1.1820 levels through into the early Tokyo session, the market made a little headway pushing to the 1.1835 into mid-session before sliding slowly through to the grey hours dipping to the 1.1810 level for the London opening, early buyers in London saw the market pushing through to test the highs again and making the day’s high just below the 1.1840 level before the release of the Eurozone IP number, a poor number and poor revision saw the market dropping back to the 1.1800 areas and drifting through to the NYK session, the market dipped down to the 1.1770 levels before holding the level through to the close with only minor attempts to recapture the 1.1800 level.
- GBP: Opening unchanged the Cable drifted quietly through the Asian session and as with the Euro slowly tested to the 1.3020 levels before holding the 1.3010 area into the grey hour, Cable saw a slight strengthening in the USD and the market slipped slowly in early trading in London to hold around the 1.2970 area before drifting to the 1.2960 level into the close quietly.
- JPY: Better GDP numbers failed to alter the path of the USDJPY dominated by the current US/N. Korea rhetoric and while the tone was scaled back today for a period the USD showed some slow attempts to push higher, rising from the unchanged opening around the 109.10 levels the market made steady gains to the 109.60 areas, the move through to the London session saw the market holding the highs before breaking through and triggering small stops on a move to the 109.80 level, and then drifted over the course of the day dipping to the 109.50 level into NYK before again rising and holding the 109.70 for a long run to the close.
- AUD: The slight reversal in the USD’s fortune saw the Oz making early highs into Tokyo just below the 0.7920 level being dragged higher by the better than expected NZD retail sales numbers however, the market was unable to push through the 0.7920 areas and then drifted through the balance of the Asian session to move into the grey hour dipping through the 0.7890 lows, London were sellers from the opening and the market tested into the 0.7870 levels before holding quietly around the level into the NYK session, light selling continued through to the opening in Sydney with the market testing the 0.7845 level before holding just above the 0.7850 areas into the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Q/Q Q2 A 2.00% | C 0.70% | P 1.50% | R 1.60%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Q/Q Q2 A 2.10% | C 0.70% | R 1.20% | R 1.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) A 1.00% | C 0.60% | P 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 (P) A -0.40% | C -0.50% | P -0.80%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Jul A 10.40% | C 10.80% | P 11.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Jul A 8.30% | C 8.60% | P 8.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Jul A 6.40% | C 7.10% | P 7.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jun A -0.60% | C -0.50% | P 1.30% | R 1.20%
Good Luck,
Andy
P.S. I will be away until the 13th August tempting trout in Eire, or not as the case maybe, or just some Guinness will do
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