Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.544 | EURUSD 1.1852 | AUDUSD 0.78792 | NZDUSD 0.70182 | USDCAD 1.24849 | USDCHF 0.97627 | GBPUSD 1.31596 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18582 | 1.18073
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.301 | 112.519
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31601 | 1.30984
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98365 | 0.97571
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78818 | 0.7829
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25190 | 1.24766
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70350 | 0.69727
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16129 | 1.15631
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90183 | 0.90047
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.858 | 133.344
For today
- EUR; A quiet start to the day with the market trading around the 1.1850 levels, that was until the forewarning by Brexit secretary Davis made his comments to the Times, USD rallied sharply with the Euro dropping back to the 1.1810 areas and a slow range to the 1.1820 levels through to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.1860 are likely to be light however, through the level the offers are likely to increase into the 1.1880-1.1900 areas, a mixture of stops and offers through the figure area is likely to see some two way plays with congestio0n likely to continue through to the 1.1950 areas where offers increase with further congestion through to 1.2000. Downside bids light through the 1.1800 areas with possible light stops on a move through the level again and the market lightly congested to the 1.1750 areas and possibly increasing in size through to the 1.1700 areas.
- GBP: As with the Euro the Cable held around the 13150 levels having dipped slightly from the opening before the Tokyo session picked up on the Davis comments and the Cable dropping back to the 1.3100 level before holding in a tight range through to the grey hour, Downside bids into the 1.3100 levels with weak stops on a move through the level and the market open to a quick move to the 1.3050 areas and likely stronger bids into the area with congestion through to the 1.3000 areas with stops likely through that level in size. Topside offers light through to the 1.3250 level with possible weak stops on a move through the level with better offers appearing on a run to the 1.3300 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY started a slow rise higher through the early part of the session moving off the 112.50 areas to test into the 112.70 level as the Times report hit the market and USDJPY quickly rose through the 113.00 level before clawing a little higher and test the 113.30 levels and running out of steam, the market drifted back from there a little and holding just below the 113.20 levels through to the grey hour. Topside offers continue through to the 113.30 levels before weak stops are possible a push through the level opens up a chance of a third high move following May and July’s break above the 1.1400 areas with limited offers into the 113.90- areas, however, the push through is likely to meet strong resistance into the 114.30-50 areas with the level being key to any further gains if it can make it, invariably the book tells us that the volume would normally be weaker than the first two attempts however, the fact that the market has been basing in the 112.00 areas for a long period with less distance to go may be indicative of a decent move if it can get through the level. Downside bids light through to the 112.00-111.80 areas at which point the support for the market stiffens a little with weak stops on a move through the level and into the slightly stronger 111.50 areas.
- AUD: Oz was dominated by cross trading for the most part, with the Davis comments causing GBP to move lower and while GBPAUD was offered the drag of Cable helped the market lower with Oz dipping slowly initially from the openings around the 7880 level to fall back sharply to the 0.7840 level, while this didn’t explain the full move the drop of NZD through the 70 cent level saw the AUDNZD cross rising a little however, the move of NZD also dragged on the Oz with the Oz continuing through the lows triggering some weak stops through to the 0.7830 area before bouncing back to above the 0.7845 area to hold through into the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 78 cent areas with weak stops on a move through to the 0.7770 areas however, some support is likely just ahead of the level and any dip through will likely find some congestive bids into the 0.7760 levels, weak stops for a change are likely to be mixed in this area having seen the 0.7775 areas buckle previously and could see the market testing through to the 77 cent areas before stronger buyers move in, Topside offers through the 0.7880 levels have defeated the market so far this week with minor sojourns above the level but never quiet reaching the 79 cent level, a push through the level though is likely to see some weak stops and the market open to the 0.7940 area before meeting further offers to slow the advance.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Senate banking Chairman Mike Crapo says Yellen Fed too slow to raise rates
Trump reportedly leaning toward Powell for Fed Chairman MarketWatch
Senate adopts budget resolution in step toward tax overhaul
Tillerson signals impatience with China while vowing to stay on
NZD:
Winston NZ First sides with Labour and new government formed with 24hrs
GBP:
Davis told officials to step up plans for no deal Brexit Times
Davis to present upbeat assessment of no deal Brexit Times
Brexit secretary Davis to speak to Cabinet on Brexit Times
Don’t be afraid of no deal Brexit, says ex-minister Owen Paterson
EUR:
Grappling on the Brink, Spain faces a constitutional crisis over Catalonia
PM Rajoy may have to set up a parallel government to stop secession
CNY:
China risks Minsky moment as debt reaches saturation
JPY:
Japan recovery not felt at street level
Aso says Japan firms piling up of internal reserves has gone too far
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Sep C 0.10% | P 0.20%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Sep C 2.90% | P 2.60%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Aug C 26.2B | P 25.1B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Sep C 5.7B | P 5.1B
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Sep C 0.40% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Sep C 1.70% | P 1.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Common Y/Y Sep P 1.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Trim Y/Y Sep P 1.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Median Y/Y Sep P 1.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Aug C 0.40% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Aug C 0.30% | P 0.20%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Sep C 5.32M | P 5.35MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Â
Harry Hindsight
- EUR; Pushing from the 1.1790 areas the market pushed towards the 1.1810 level before slipping and trading quietly around the 1.1800 areas through to the grey hour, Early London struggled with the 1.1820 areas before selling lower through to the 1.1770 with Cable selling dragging the Euro lower the market in Euro’s bounced pushing through the 1.1800 levels again and eventually pushed through to the 1.1830 areas before pausing for the move into the NYK session, the move into NYK saw the market push steadily through the 1.1850 levels with limited good news out of the data and the Euro ranging through to the close and finishing just off the highs.
- GBP: The move through the Asian session was limited with early gains to the 1.3220 areas before drifting back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hour, London were steady sellers that is until the release of Retail sales numbers which saw a quick reversal of the numbers for August and the Cable dropped back through the 1.3130 areas before bouncing a little and moving steadily through to the 1.3180 level for the move into the NYK session, a push back through the 1.3200 level was short lived and the market again sank to the 1.3150 levels to hold quietly through the session in that area.
- JPY: Asia ranged around the 113.00 level for the Asian session only really moving once it moved into the London session, the market touched its highs in early London with the market pushing gently through the 113.10 levels before dropping back quickly with the help of some GBP selling to test back to the 112.50 areas before holding quietly through to the NYK session and ranging for the balance of the session dipping down to the 112.30 level at the widest downside point before putting a little rally to the 112.70 areas to finish the day just above the 112.50 areas.
- AUD: A little choppy through the day with the market opening around the 0.7845 level and rising from the lows just below the opening and testing quickly above the 0.7870 areas before drifting a little and dipping back to the 0.7850 areas for the run into the grey hour, early London were quick buyers pushing again to the highs before dipping back and so it went through the day with successive rallies making steady gains and the market topping out just below the 0.7880 levels before holding around the level into the close
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance JPY Sep A 0.24T | C 0.32T | P 0.37T | R 0.31T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q3 A 7 | P 7 | R 8
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Sep A 19.8K | C 15.0K | P 54.2K | R 53.0K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Sep A 5.50% | C 5.60% | P 5.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q3 A 6.80% | C 6.80% | P 6.90%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Sep A 10.30% | C 10.20% | P 10.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Sep A 7.50% | C 7.70% | P 7.80%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Sep A 6.60% | C 6.40% | P 6.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Aug A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Sep A 2.92B | C 2.47B | P 2.17B | R 2.20B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Sep A -0.80% | C -0.10% | P 1.00% | R 0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 14) A 222 | C 240K | P 243K | R 244K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Oct A 27.9 | C 22 | P 23.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Sep A -0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 51B | C 59B | P 87B
Good Luck,
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.