Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.458 | EURUSD 1.1798 | AUDUSD 0.76324 | NZDUSD 0.68808 | USDCAD 1.27316 | USDCHF 0.9895 | GBPUSD 1.31653 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18027 | 1.1786
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.499 | 113.027
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31695 | 1.31307
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99003 | 0.98821
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76327 | 0.75761
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27525 | 1.27321
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68875 | 0.6866
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16765 | 1.16604
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89801 | 0.89588
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.889 | 133.305
For today
- EUR: Early trading managed to push slightly through the 1.1800 level before drifting into the Tokyo session to test just below the 1.1790 levels and a range through to the grey hours, plenty of two way volume moving through the market. The push through the 1.1750 levels and its congestion was cleared quickly yesterday however, the 1.1800 level is proving a little stronger with light congestion through to the 1.1850 level with possibly weak stops on a push through the 1.1820 areas, a break above the 1.1860 level will likely see offers continuing with some weak stops with stronger offers moving in around the 1.1880-1.1900 areas. Downside bids likely to be weak until closer to the 1.1700 areas where some bids may be forming in the area and a push through the level possibly seeing weak stops appearing and the market quickly back to the 1.1650 areas and congestion through the level and continuing into the 1.1600 areas with stronger bids waiting below.
- GBP: More chatter in the media about Brexit and current push for Brexit saw the Cable drift lower from the opening in Tokyo with the market moving from just above the 1.3160 areas to test slowly to the 1.3130 level, the balance of the session saw a slow rise through to the grey hour rising to the 1.3145 areas, downside bids into the 1.3070-50 areas and likely to be strong, weak stops and possible breakout stops on a push through the 1.3040 areas could see the 1.3000 quickly tested and the market opening to a larger dip through to the 1.2900 areas where strong bids are likely to reappear, some sentimental bids are possible into the 1.2950 areas but limited at best. Topside offers light through to the 1.3190-1.3200 areas with congestion likely through the level and some limited stops on a push through the 1.3220 areas however, congestion is likely to continue with the offers increasing the closer the market moves towards the 1.3300 area.
- JPY: Quiet move into the Tokyo session before USDJPY dropped back quickly testing through to the 113.00 levels before finding some support and a slow climb to the 113.20 where the market remained into the grey hours, The Oz numbers took there toll on the USDJPY with some strong AUD/JPY selling, downside bids into the 113.00 downside bids into the 113.00 areas likely to see weak stops on a move through the level with some congestive bids to soak up those bids on a move through to the 112.50 areas where better bids are possibly seen, however, 112.00-111.80 is likely to be the stronger point with stronger stops on a move through the level, Topside offers a little weak through to the 113.80 areas where they start to increase with congestion likely to continue through the figure level and into the 114.50 areas before weakness appears on a push through the 114.60 level and stronger stops, the approaches to the 115.00 areas are likely to be strong for the day with Gotobi day with everything divisible by 5 and possible option barriers in the way.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7630 areas the market held quietly through into the Tokyo session dropping quickly once the consumer confidence number was released, the market reacted quickly dropping quickly to the 76 cent level and as they say resistance was futile and after a brief pause continued through to the 0.7580 areas before finding some stronger support moving in and the market finally unable to push much lower than the 0.7575 areas and holding through to the grey hour around the 0.7585 level, Downside congestion through to the 74 cent areas now with particularly strong bids into the 0.7550 areas expected with congestion continuing but a little lighter into the 75 level. Topside offers sees light offers back through the 76 cent level and then increasing into the 0.7640-60 areas before weakness to the topside increases on a push at the 77 cent level
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
October house sales fall to 5,689 REINZ
October house price index rises 0.2% MoM 1.6% YoY REINZ
Weak House sales prompt calls for RBNZ to ease curbs
GBP:
UK Tories attack May’s mad Brexit date law, and threaten revolt (again)
USD:
Powell fears blah, blah, blah is what traders hear from FED
SEK:
Sweden’s housing shock hits Krona, leaving Riksbank few choices
Commodities:
Commodities drop as signs of shaky demand reignite glut concerns
API is said to report US Crude stocks +6.51M bbl last week
Oil prices drop on lower demand forecast DJ
AUD:
Australian consumer confidence falls 1.7% MoM to 99.7
3Q wage price index rises 2.0% YoY est. 2.2% 0.5% QoQ est. 0.7%
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Nov A -1.70% | P 3.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 (PP A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q3 (P) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P -0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wage Price Index Q/Q Q3 A 0.50% | C 0.70% | P 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Sep (F) A -1.00% | C -1.10% | P -1.10%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Oct C 2.4K | P 1.7K
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Oct P 2.30%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Sep C 2.10% | P 2.20%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Sep C 4.30% | P 4.30%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change 3M/3M Sep C 50K | P 94K
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Sep C 21.4B | P 21.6B
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Oct C 0.10% | P 0.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Oct C 2.00% | P 2.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Oct C 1.70% | P 1.70%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Nov C 25 | P 30.2
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales M/M Oct C 0.00% | P 1.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 1.00%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Sep C 0.00% | P 0.70%
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 2.2M
21:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep C 34.6B | P 67.2B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A more active day for the Euro with GDP numbers helping the market after a quiet Asian session, the market opening around the 1.1665 areas and tested to the 1.1660 in early trading before Tokyo with the new session pushing it slowly through the 1.1675 level and then holding through to the grey hours around the 1.1670 area, early Europeans sold the market back to the opening levels before the German GDP hit with the market rallying quickly to the 1.1690 levels and then holding as the market waited for the next one, Italy was in line with expectations although a revision of last month’s kept the market bubbling and the market eventually pushed through the 1.1700 levels with some minor stops triggered along the way the market continued a steady rise through with Eurozone GDP in line and the market moving towards the NYK session pushing through towards the 1.1750 after a tight channelled push, a minor attempt to clear the 1.1760 levels was initially thwarted and the market looked to be set for the day holding around the 1.1750 areas however, with the London session closing the resistance melted and the market made quick inroads towards the 1.1800 briefly breaking the level before drifting to the close not far from the highs.
- GBP: Cable struggled a little higher in early Tokyo pushing towards the 1.3130 level before slipping back to the opening levels for a long run to the grey hours, as with the Euro early Europeans bought the USD and the Cable was pushed to the 1.3100 areas to trade heavily into the London session and a weak test to the 1.3090 level before recovering on the official opening to the previous 1.3120 area, the release of the inflationary data saw the expectations of 3.10% missed and the release in line with last month’s number and the Cable initially dipping down to the 1.3070 areas before bouncing back to the 1.3100 levels and holding around the area through to the NYK session, the steady rise of the Euro eventually tugged at the Cable and the market pushing above the opening levels and a breakthrough of the 1.3130 area saw weak stops and the market squeezing through to the 1.3180 levels before coming to a stop and drifting through to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 113.60 area and the market remained stuck through the Asian session holding around the 113.65 level barely breaching the 113.70 and 113.60 level until the London open with the market rising with the help of the Euro and cross buying, USDJPY eventually stretched to the 113.90 level before meeting sufficient interest to turn the market, initially the market held around the level however after an hour or so of pushing the market started to slide lower through into the NYK session testing back to the 113.50, the market eventually pushed through the level however, the move lower was limited and the market based around the 113.35 areas through to the close rising a little in the last couple of hours.
- AUD: A very quiet range for the Oz through the course of the day with 0.7610-50 about covering the range, the market initially tested to the 0.7610 areas before pushing quickly higher on the release of the business number, and then trading around the 0.7630 level through to the London session, early sellers saw the market again testing back towards the lows however, as the USD started to take the brunt of Euro buying the Oz again pushed back through to the holding area around the 0.7630 and the move into the NYK session and slightly stronger PPI numbers saw the Oz test to the highs for the day and a repeat of the opening in London before a long run to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Oct A 8 | P 7 | R 8
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Oct A 10.00% | C 10.50% | P 10.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Oct A 7.30% | C 7.30% | P 7.50%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Oct A 6.20% | C 6.20% | P 6.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.80% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Oct (F) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Oct (F) A 1.60% | C 1.60% | P 1.60%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Oct A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P 0.50%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Oct A 1.20% | P 0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40% | R 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Oct A 3.00% | C 3.10% | P 3.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Oct A 2.70% | C 2.80% | P 2.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Oct A 4.00% | C 4.10% | P 3.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Oct A 1.00% | C 0.80% | P 0.40% | R 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Oct A 4.60% | C 4.70% | P 8.40% | R 8.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Oct A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Oct A 2.80% | C 2.90% | P 3.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.00% | R -0.10%
GBP      PPI Output Core Y/Y Oct              A 2.10% | C 2.20% | P 2.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y Sep A 5.40% | C 5.20% | P 5.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Sep A -0.60% | C -0.60% | P 1.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Economic Sentiment Nov A 18.7 | C 19.5 | P 17.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Current Situation Nov A 88.8 | C 88 | P 87
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Nov A 30.9 | C 29.3 | P 26.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Oct A 0.40% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Oct A 2.80% | C 2.30% | P 2.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Oct A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Oct A 2.40% | C 2.20% | P 2.20%
Good Luck,
Andy
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