Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.222 | EURUSD 1.18505 | AUDUSD 0.76248 | NZDUSD 0.68891 | USDCAD 1.27158 | USDCHF 0.98182 | GBPUSD 1.33085 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18589 | 1.18368
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.514 | 111.198
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33135 | 1.32874
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98239 | 0.98124
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76322 | 0.76164
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27309 | 1.27101
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68947 | 0.68745
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16399 | 1.16275
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89218 | 0.88933
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.201 | 131.754
For today
- EUR: Minor comments on QE saw the dip on the day from the opening around the 1.1850 level to test to just below the 1.1840 areas in limited action, the market recovered and pushed through towards the 1.1860 level before settling back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers are likely to continue through to the 1.1880 level with a mixture of stops and offers likely through the level and stronger offers into the 1.1900 level with congestion likely through to the 1.1920 areas before weaker stops on a move through to test into the 1.1950 areas and some congestive offers appearing to slow any advance. Downside bids light through to the 1.1800 areas with light congestion through the level possibly being swept away by weak stops and the market opening to the stronger bids into the 1.1750 areas through to the 1.1740 level before any weakness appears to the downside with weak bids through 1.1700 and the market vulnerable to a move back to the 1.1650 areas.
- GBP: Cable struggled from the opening with doom and gloom merchants pointing out the downside to the UK’s economy and debt structure, obviously this is all transparent according to the same merchants who blame the “uncertainty†of Brexit, however, the market has taken this on board in a light sense and the Cable over the past 24hrs has moved away from the potential moves higher, the market opened holding just above the 1.3300 levels and once into Tokyo moved to the 1.3290 levels to hold through to the grey hours in quiet trading, Topside offers likely to continue to be strong into the 1.3350 areas with the recent failures with a push through opening up a quick test to the 1.3400 areas and some limited offers likely to continue through into the 1.3440 areas before stronger stops appear and the market opens to the potential of testing the years highs over the coming weeks, downside bids light through to the 1.3250 level and then increasing congestive offers reappear in the market with some limited strength into 1.3220 before weak stops appear on a move below the 1.3200 areas and sentimental levels then contain some stronger congestion through the 1.31 handle.
- JPY: A slightly stronger USD overall saw the USDJPY testing from the opening 111.20 areas to the 111.45 area in initial trading before slipping back for a long period of dullness around the 111.30-35 area, a late push through to the 111.50 areas saw the market attempting to push beyond the level as the market moved to the grey hours, Topside offers weak through to the 111.85 area with some stronger offers likely to appear into the 112.00 areas however, a push through is likely to see weak stops and the market opening and possibly a small squeeze through to the 112.50 areas before congestion appears in the market. Downside bids into the 111.20-00 areas and likely to increase on a move through to the 110.55-50 levels with the level likely to be key to a deeper move lower
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7625 areas the market had a limited move to the 0.7630 areas before slipping back to the opening level for the move into the Tokyo session, Tokyo were slow sellers but managed to push the market below the 0.7620 levels and then ranged through the session between that low and the opening levels in quiet trading. Topside offers into the 0.7640 level with increasing offers as the market moves higher and towards the 77 cent level with likely strong levels into the area with congestion just beyond, downside bids light through to the 76 cent areas with the market opening for further test to the 0.7520 areas.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
GBP:
London based IFS says UK debt could stay above pre-crisis levels until 2060
Fitch: Weaker UK growth forecasts highlight debt challenge
Consumer confidence drops to a level not seen since after the Brexit vote
CHF:
SNB’s Jordan: Current account surplus not sign of Franc weakness
Jordan: SNB using negative rates for price stability
Jordan: Franc remains highly valued
Jordan: SNB policy not for mercantilist advantage
ZAR:
- Africa holds rate as uncertainty lifts chance of increase
EUR:
ECB policy makers worried markets expect more QE extensions
AUD:
Anti-Muslim immigration party could swing Australian senate vote
Australia worries about a wavering US, seeks stronger ties with Asian allies
Australia faces housing hangover twice the size of the GFC subprime era
NZD:
NZ posts wider than forecast trade deficit in October
USD:
A split from Trump indicates that Flynn is moving to cooperate with Mueller
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Oct A -871M | C -750M | P -1143M | R -1156M
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Nov (P) A 53.8 | C 52.6 | P 52.8
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Business Climate Nov C 116.5 | P 116.7
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Expectations Nov C 108.8 | P 109.1
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Current Assessment Nov C 125 | P 124.8
14:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Nov (P) C 55 | P 54.6
14:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Nov (P) C 55.4 | P 55.3
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1820 levels the market made steady headway through the 1.1850 levels with the market making the move through the Tokyo and London session in a steady rise, PMI numbers were mixed with gains in Germany offsetting the others and helping the Eurozone numbers to come in better, the move through to the bank holiday NYK session saw the market trading around the 1.1850 levels to hold quietly through to the close.
- GBP: Limited range but fairly choppy through the day with GDP numbers in line with expectations and Business investment dropping off for the 3Q, Opening around the 1.3325 areas the market made an early push to make the highs of the day into the Tokyo session testing just above the 1.3335 before steadily slipping lower through into the London session to test to the 1.3285 levels with lots of chatter about the UK economy generally for the coming years however, the market saw very little direction and ranged through the day around the 1.3305 levels with liquidity leaving the market bouncing around in 5 pip increments in one direction or the other.
- JPY: A very, very quiet session for the USDJPY with a Tokyo and US bank holiday leaving the market centred around the opening 111.20 levels with early trading testing through the 111.10 level before recovering to set the high just short of the 111.40 level in Asia, the market range then tightened a little through to the close with no change on the day and the market going out where it started around the 111.22 level.
- AUD: The Oz opened around the 0.7620 levels and saw a slow drift to make the lows around the 0.7605 areas before recovering the opening levels and a slow move through into the London session, the market pushed a little higher through the morning in London to test above the 0.7630 areas but was unable to move through the 0.7640 and after a short period dropped back away to move into the NYK session holding the 0.7625 level to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Q/Q Q3 A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 2.00% | R 1.80%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Core Q/Q Q3 A 0.50% | C 0.90% | P 2.10% | R 1.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q3 (F) A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Nov (P) A 57.5 | C 55.9 | P 56.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Nov (P) A 60.2 | C 57 | P 57.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov (P) A 62.5 | C 60.3 | P 60.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Nov (P) A 54.9 | C 55 | P 54.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov (P) A 60 | C 58.2 | P 58.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Nov (P) A 56.2 | C 55.2 | P 55
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Total Business Investment Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Sep A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Nov A 26 | C 5 | P -36
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Sep A 0.10% | C 1.00% | P -0.30% | R -0.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Sep A 0.30% | C 1.10% | P -0.70% | R -0.40%
              Â
Good Luck,
Andy
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