Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.598 | EURUSD 1.18261 | AUDUSD 0.76077 | NZDUSD 0.6874 | USDCAD 1.26884 | USDCHF 0.98732 | GBPUSD 1.34426 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18485 | 1.18163
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.659 | 112.064
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34445 | 1.34048
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98823 | 0.98559
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76388 | 0.75716
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27072 | 1.26879
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69089 | 0.68711
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16874 | 1.16723
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88242 | 0.87985
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.245 | 132.697
For today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1825 areas the market dipped back from the 1.1830 areas as the Oz dropped after the GDP numbers with the Euro testing into the teens before rising back to push through to the 1.1830 level again, the push through the 1.1830 seeing some quick buying to test through the 1.1845 and before drifting a little lower through into the grey hours, congestion in the current areas with a push through the 1.1880 levels likely to see some weak stops but stronger offers likely around the 1.1900 areas and continuing through to the 1.1960 levels before another round of weak stops, topside offers into the 1.2000 levels are likely to be a little more substantial with possible option barriers through the level. Downside bids has congestion through to the 1.1800 areas and reasonable strength a push through the 1.1780 areas will likely see weak stops appear and possibly a run to the 1.1750 levels with some congestion around the level and then weak stops on a move through the 1.1740 areas with limited bids into the 1.1700 level.
- GBP: A weak close in NYK saw the market rise to the 1.3420 levels from the opening before restarting the rally and pushing through to the 1.3440 levels before finding some resistance and holding through to the grey hours in the area. Topside offers weak through the 1.3450 levels and increasing on a move to the 1.3470-80 area, a push through that level will likely see some weak stops appearing and the market quickly pushing through the 1.3500 level will likely see some further weak stops and the market then running into the congestion on a move to the 1.3550 with decent stops likely through the level and 1.3600 likely to be lightly offered, downside bids into the 1.3420-30 areas and increasing into the figure level with the market reforming the bids having been cleared out yesterday, a push through the level will likely see stronger bids into the 1.3350 areas with sops through the level and opening a deeper move through to the congested 1.3250 areas.
- JPY: Opening around the 112.60 levels the market moved into the Tokyo session testing lower through to the 112.40 areas, and holding, the release of the article on the BoJ removing the easy money policy saw the market quickly drop to the 112.20 areas and finally push to test the 112.10 level into the grey hours, with some decent selling through the session, downside bids through the current lows however, a push through the 111.80 level is likely to see weak stops appearing and the market quickly moving into the congested 111.50 areas with the 111.00 level becoming vulnerable for a test through to the 110.55 level and likely to be key to any further downward movement. Topside offers through the 113.00 levels with limited stops is likely to see stronger offers the further through the level you go and into the very congested 113.50-114.00 level with only a clear break above the 114.60 areas affording any real hope for the topside and further gains to a vulnerable 115.00 area.
- AUD: Oz opened around the 0.7605 areas and dipped a little into the Tokyo session before the release of the slightly weaker GDP numbers with consumption down and people saving there pennies rather than spending the market saw a knee jerk reaction with the revision of last month’s numbers initially offsetting the weaker number to take the market above the 0.7635 level before dropping quickly through to the 0.7575 area and basing along that level through to the grey hours, Downside bids into the 0.7560-40 areas congestive in nature with support line around the 0.7530 areas likely to leave the 75 cent area vulnerable on a break and a quick move through the level a possibility, some congestion around the level sees the downside range increasing with the limited congestion continuing through to the 74 cent areas and the market opening fully to a deeper move. Topside offers through the 0.7640 areas likely to be lightly congested through to the 0.7660 level, a move above the area will possibly see stronger offers on the move to the 77 cent areas and through to around 0.7730 before the chance of weak stops appearing and the market then running into stronger offers once into the 0.7750-70 areas.
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Overnight News                                                                 Â
GBP:
Boris Johnson and Michael Gove lead cabinet revolt against Theresa May over fear that the PM is forcing through a soft Brexit
UK foils plot to bomb downing street.
EUR:
Ireland might consider adding to Brexit border text
Catalan crisis paralyses Spanish politics with budget still not approved
AUD:
GDP data reflects very weak consumption with strong investment
JPY:
The BoJ has quietly ended its easy monetary policy
USD:
Deutsche bank subpoenaed in Trump probe
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 A 0.60% | C 0.70% | P 0.80% | R 0.90%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Oct C -0.20% | P 1.00%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Nov C 0.00% | P 0.10%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Nov C 0.80% | P 0.70%
09:10Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Nov P 51.1
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Nov C 191K | P 235K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Productivity Q/Q Q3 P -0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nonfarm Productivity Q3 (F) C 3.30% | P 3.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q3 (F) C 0.30% | P 0.50%
15:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision C 1.00% | P 1.00%
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -3.4M
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The highs for the Euro were made early in the day with the EURUSD moving from the 1.1865 levels rising slowly to test above the 1.1875 areas and starting to drift into the grey hours back to the opening levels, early London sold the market back to the 1.1840 areas with early numbers a little mixed however, the market recovered towards the highs and moved into the NYK session falling back sharply from those highs to test through the 1.1850 areas, triggering some weak stops on a move through to the 1.1815 levels before finding some support, the move through to the close in London saw the market extending the lows and even though the market struggled the market eventually held into the 1.1800 level to recover to the 1.1825 level for the close.
- GBP: Pressure builds on PM May with Brexit seniors pushing for a strong arm message to the EU and the other side pointing out the merits of remaining however; as the EU squeezes every little concession out of the UK the disarray is likely to increase. Opening around the 1.3480 areas and holding through the Asian session around the 1.3470 areas with the market dropping off quickly into the grey hours trading down through the 1.3440 levels with a little interference before continuing its move into the official opening and testing to the 1.3370 areas, the market bounced off the lows and quickly moved back through the 1.3400 level and a slow rise through into the NYK session pushing back above the 1.3450 levels after the poor PMI services number was received, NYK remained fairly quiet with the GBP and the market held to the close around the 1.3450 areas.
- JPY: A very limited range throughout the day with the market opening around the 112.40 levels and rising slowly into the Tokyo session to test the 112.55 levels before ranging around the 112.50 areas to the grey hours, the move into the grey hours saw the USDJPY again rising extending the highs to the 112.70 level before slipping a little lower through the London session into the NYK session pushing from the lows again to rise through to the 112.85 levels and holding for several hours above the 112.65 level, the run to the close saw the market slip back to finish the day around the 112.60 levels.
- AUD: As with the USDJPY the Oz was limited in range with the market moving off the opening just below 76 cent to test through to the 0.7650 areas later in the session, the decent retail sales numbers were behind the rise and the market held above the 0.7640 areas through to deep into the London session and only once the NYK traders moved into the theatre did the Oz slip lower triggering some light stops through to the opening levels and then holding the 0.7600-10 areas to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Nov A 0.6% | P -1.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (AUD) Q3 A -9.18B | C -8.8B | P -9.6B | R -9.7B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Oct A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.00% | R 0.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Nov A 51.9 | C 51.5 | P 51.2
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Nov A 54.7 | C 53.2 | P 52.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Nov (F) A 60.4 | C 60.2 | P 60.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Nov (F) A 54.3 | C 54.9 | P 54.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Nov (F) A 56.2 | C 56.2 | P 56.2
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Nov A 53.8 | C 55 | P 55.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Oct A -1.10% | C -0.70% | P 0.70%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Oct A -1.5B | C -2.3B | P -3.2B | R -3.7B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Oct A -48.7B | C -46.2B | P -43.5B | R -44.9B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Nov (F) A 54.5 | C 55.3 | P 54.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite Nov A 57.4 | C 59 | P 60.1
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Good Luck,
Andy
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