Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.933 | EURUSD 1.22618 | AUDUSD 0.80173 | NZDUSD 0.73073 | USDCAD 1.24439 | USDCHF 0.96191 | GBPUSD 1.39883 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22762 | 1.22508
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.029 | 110.545
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.40040 | 1.39724
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96252 | 0.96069
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80300 | 0.79819
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24650 | 1.24386
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73550 | 0.73149
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17991 | 1.17825
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87728 | 0.87623
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 136.176 | 135.61
For today
EUR: Limited range but a little choppy overall with the market trading around the opening level for the most part, early buying saw the Euro testing through to the 1.2276 areas before dropping back and unable to penetrate the 1.2250 level in tight trading, Topside offers into the 1.2300 areas and congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2330 area before stops are likely to appear and the market opens a little with limited congestion and sentimental offers through the 1.2340-60 areas and stronger offers likely to appear on any move towards the 1.2400 areas, Downside bids light through to the 1.2200 areas with those bids extending through to the 1.2180 areas with weak stops possibly through the level however, some bids into the 1.2160 level are likely to slow the decent and those bids possibly extending to the 1.2140 before opening to a test of the 1.2120 levels.
GBP: A quiet session with the Cable with early trading flirting with the 1.4000 level penetrating it quickly on two occasion but eventually returning to the opening 1.3990 level and then trading around the 1.3985 level through into the grey hours with a minor dip below the 1.3975 level to set the low. Topside offers remain possibly through to the 1.4020 areas, with congestion ahead but the market in the pre general election ranges at the beginning of 2016, limited offers likely through the 1.4100 level with stronger offers then appearing above and through to 1.4200 areas with limited stops and profit taking likely to be mixed along the way, downside bids light through the 1.3900 area with some stops likely on a break lower and limited bids until the market tests the 1.3850 areas and increasing into 1.3800 level.
JPY: The market drifted in the early part of the session with the market testing through the 111.00 levels before dipping back to trade around the 110.90 levels into the BoJ decision, no change saw the USDJPY drop quickly back to the 110.50 areas before holding around the 110.70 level to slowly push back into the 110.80’s for the move into the grey hours, downside bids through the 110.50 level and likely to continue through to the 110.00 areas, possibly limited stops along the way however, stronger stops likely on a dip through the 109.80 areas and the downside vulnerable if 109.60 is broken with any impetus. Topside offers into the 111.40 level is likely to be a little stronger however, stops through the level will likely open the market to a quick move to the stronger 112.00 areas.
AUD: Opening just short of the 0.8020 levels the market drifted into the Tokyo session to the 0.8005 level before taking a step to the topside and push through the previous high and test the 0.8030 in a stab for the stops above, however the move was quickly squashed and the market dropped back quickly pausing around the 80 cent level before slipping quietly through to the 0.7885 areas to hold around the level into the grey hours. Topside offers into the 0.8050 areas, with weak stops opening the 81 cent level and possibly another grind to move through the level, a push through here and the 0.8140 level is likely to be key to the new range opening to the 90 cent levels, “dare I say†however, that is far beyond current economics I think and day trading may filter through and contain the market each day, downside bids light through the 79 cent levels with weak stops on a move through and the market opening to the stronger 0.7840 areas, With congestion in that area.
Overnight News
JPY:
BoJ maintains 10 year JGB yield target at about 0.000%
BoJ maintains policy balance rate at -0.10%
BoJ keeps price outlook unchanged in outlook report
BoJ inflation expectations have been more or less unchanged
BoJ previously said inflation expectations were weakening
BoJ board votes 8-1 to keep policy unchanged
BOJ Kuroda:
Japan economy to continue growing above potential
See downside risks to prices as larger
BoJ’s Kataoka opposed wording on inflation outlook
Even through economy growing prices still weak
Still distant from 2% price target
Need to continue current powerful monetary easing
BoJ isn’t at stage to consider exit
Japan’s economy needs persistent monetary easing
No need to adjust ETF purchases now
Haven’t observed excessive expectations in Stock market
No excessively bullish expectations in Stock market
EUR:
Hurry up, German conservative urges SDP on coalition
CNY:
China sends mixed messages about economic policies WSJ
China Commerce ministry says expresses strong dissatisfaction regarding US tariffs on washers, solar cells
CCM says US decision further deteriorates global trade environment
CCM says China will resolutely safeguard China’s interests
AUD:
Australia weekly consumer confidence falls 3.3% to 119.4
IMF:
Traders ignore the fine print in IMF report, but then it’s been a while since they got it right
IMF Comments on world economic outlook update on its website
IMF cuts S. Africa 2018 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% vs. 1.1%
USD:
Trump imposes Tariffs on imported solar cells and washing machines
Trump signs stopgap funding bill to reopen US government
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Nov A 1.00% | C 0.90% | P 0.30%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing Dec C 4.2B | P 8.1B
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan C 17.9 | P 17.4
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Jan C 89.5 | P 89.3
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan C 29.7 | P 29
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Jan C 12 | P 17
15:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jan (A) C 1 | P 1
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The opening was around the 1.226 levels peaking just above 1.2265 before staring a steady slip lower to fill the gap on the charts with the USD sell off relevant to the Washington close down over the weekend, the market tripped some weak stops in a spike down to the 1.2235 level before continuing its slow decline through into the grey hours holding the 1.2215 level before early London took the market slowly back through the morning to the highs again, the move through into the NYK session saw the market ranging around the 1.2250 levels with a dip back towards the lows on the London close before rising back towards the highs on the move to the close.
- GBP: Cable was no different with the market opening around the 1.3890 levels and some 40 pips higher from the close Friday, the market held a little longer in the 1.3885-90 levels before dropping back to hold around the 1.3865 levels through to the grey hours, the move into the grey hours saw the market slowly rise through into the London session the market pushed through the 1.3900 and held in the areas until the NYK session started, the market started a steady rise through the NYK session with some fund buying suspected on the move through the 1.3950 levels and holding for the close of London in the areas and then continuing late in the session to range quietly through to the close 1.3985-90 areas.
- JPY: Opening lower than Fridays close the market moved off the lows around the 110.50 areas to test through towards early Tokyo quietly before closing the gap quickly testing to the 110.80 areas and then slipping a little and pushing again slowly through to the grey hours ranging around the 110.80 level and testing briefly to the 110.90 before drifting off through early London, before slipping back a little to rest around the 110.70 levels into NYK, the move through to the close of London saw the market rising quickly through to the 111.20 level but unable to push through the level and drifted back to the 110.90 levels for the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.8000 areas the market flirted with the level for a couple of hours before dipping back through to the 0.7980 areas before holding quietly around the 0.7990 area through to the London session, early London pushed the market back to the 80 cent areas, London eventually penetrated the 80 cent levels again and testing steadily towards the 0.8020 levels and ranged into the NYK session testing a little higher to the 0.8026 areas before slipping back on the London close before drifting higher to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Nov A 0.70% | C 1.00% | P 1.50%
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