Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 113.195 | EURUSD 1.14078 | AUDUSD 0.72104 | NZDUSD 0.66641 | USDCAD 1.31106 | USDCHF 1.00447 | GBPUSD 1.30424 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 5.00am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.14143 | 1.13991

USDJPY                 113.362 | 113.177

GBPUSD               1.30751 | 1.30329

USDCHF               1.00553 | 1.00397

AUDUSD              0.72200 | 0.72052

USDCAD               1.31152 | 1.30966

NZDUSD               0.66693 | 0.66464

EURCHF                1.14634 | 1.14563

EURGBP               0.87489 | 0.8730

EURJPY                 129.302 | 129.092

 

For today

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.3045 level the market ignored the earlier Irish posturing over backstop border and went with the stronger rumours of a deal almost at the table and lifting quickly through to the 1.3065 areas for the move into the Tokyo session, the market then slowly slipped through to the 1.3045 levels in slow trading and holding the 1.3050 area through into the grey hours, no change for prospects with topside congestion through to the 1.3050 level remains however, through the level should see a little bit of a two way battle with weak stops contending with congestion pushing through to the 1.3100 level and possibly stronger offers around the area and continuing through, downside bids light through to the 1.2900 areas with possible late comer bids into the area however, weak stops likely through the 1.2880 level and the market quickly testing back to the 1.2800 areas and stronger bids appearing.
  • JPY: A slow but steady grind higher through the session for the USDJPY opening around the 113.20 levels the market pushed through into the Tokyo session testing through the 113.30 level before retracing a little and ranging between the 113.25-30 level for several hours before again pushing a little and breaking the 113.35 level to make the highs for the move into the grey hours, downside congestion light through to the 112.60 level with slightly stronger bids appearing and increasing through to the 112.00 area, weak stops likely on a push through the 111.60 areas will likely compete against limited congestion through to the 111.40 level before stronger bids start to appear on any move towards the 111.00 level, topside offers light through the 114.00 areas with stronger offers likely to start appearing on any push through the 114.40-60 level possibly light stops however, the 114.80-115.00 area is stronger and will take time to break.
  • AUD: Very limited and even the RBA announcement did very little to liven the day, opening around the 0.7210 level the market for the most part traded around that level pushing into the Tokyo session to make the high for the day on a run to the 0.7220 area before drifting off through to the 0.7205 levels as the market adjusted for the announcement. The move from the announcement was moot to say the least trading slowly through towards the 0.7220 area and heading into the grey hours just off the highs. Topside offers congested through to the 0.7260 level before opening a little however, 0.7300 is likely to see some stronger profit taking from medium term traders with weak stops possible on a push through the 0.7320 areas meeting congestive offer through to the 0.7350 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.7150 levels with congestion appearing on any dip into the area and increasing through the 71 cent level with stronger bids likely on any dips into the 70 cent handle again.
  • EUR: A slow slide slightly lower through the session with the early highs just above the opening around the 1.1414 level, late through the session the market tested to the 1.1400 lightly holding the level and moving through to the grey hours just off the lows. topside offers likely to be reasonably weak through to the 1.1460 areas however, a push towards the 1.1480 level is likely to see stronger offers appearing and continuing to the 1.1500 level and congestion increasing through to the 1.1520 level and repeated into 1.1540-60, any push through the level is likely to see similar offers continuing. Downside bids lightly congested through to the 1.1320-00 area where stronger bids are likely to appear and with nonfarm payrolls the only threat to the lows of the year, a break through the 1.1300 will likely see some limited congestion into the 1.1275 level before a larger intraday movement lower appears to be possible through to the 1.1150 area.

 

 

Overnight News

EUR:

Italy’s Tria says budget dialogue with commission to go ahead

Tria: Italian government not currently changing budget

CNY:

Chinese military experts said on Tuesday that the H-20 Nuclear stealth bomber will soon make its maiden flight

Estimated range is 5,000 miles and would pose a threat to US carrier fleets in the Pacific

One in 10 of China’s banks flunk PBoC first risk rating

USD:

Democrats are likely to make big gains in Governor’s race

EUR/GBP:

Ireland says the UK cannot unilaterally scrap border backstop

PM faces cabinet after Irish refusal to allow unilateral UK backstop exit

 

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY:        Overall Household Spending Y/Y Sep A -1.60% | C 1.60% | P 2.80%

GBP:      BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Oct A 0.10% | C 0.60% | P -0.20%

AUD:     RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%

7:00        EUR:      German Factory Orders M/M Sep C -0.40% | P 2.00%

8:45        EUR:      Italy Services PMI Oct C 52.1 | P 53.3

8:50        EUR:      France Services PMI Oct (F) C 55.6 | P 55.6

8:55        EUR:      Germany Services PMI Oct (F) C 53.6 | P 53.6

9:00        EUR:      Eurozone Services PMI Oct (F) C 53.3 | P 53.3

10:00     EUR:      Eurozone PPI M/M Sep C 0.30% | P 0.30%

10:00     EUR:      Eurozone PPI Y/Y Sep C 4.20% | P 4.20%

13:30     CAD:      Building Permits M/M Sep C 0.30% | P 0.40%

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A little choppy but contained for the bulk of the day with the market opening higher from Fridays close around the 1.3010 areas and then having pushed ahead and absorbed any weak stops the market started a long steady drift through Tokyo dropping back to hold the 1.2985 level for the move into the grey hour, grey hour buying bought the weekend news of a deal done and the market moved to the London opening testing the 1.3025 levels before dropping back on early London selling into the news, the market then ranged around the 1.3000 level through to the NYK session with lows extended through to the 1.2965 area on a couple of occasions but each time trading back steadily to push through the 1.3025 level into NYK, light trading through to the end of London saw the market again pushing a little higher testing to the 1.3050 areas and holding quietly just below the level to the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY contained through the day in a tight range, opening unchanged from the Friday close the market held for the first hour before dipping for the first time through the 113.15 areas however, the market struggled through the Asian session holding around the 113.20 levels having tested 113.10-25 the move towards the grey hours eventually breaking up towards the 113.35 level before failing and drifting off for the London opening again holding the 113.20 level, London were slow buyers and the market ground through the levels to again test the 113.35 area and the move into the NYK session saw the market retracing a little quicker and triggering some light stops to force the lows of the day just through the 113.10 level bouncing off the level and holding quietly around the 113.20 areas to the close.
  • AUD: A very quiet day for the Oz moving from the opening slightly lower than Fridays close, and then pushing just above the 72 cents levels into the Tokyo session, the quiet session saw the market drift off to the opening around the 0.7190 areas and then hold quietly around the level through to the London session before attempting to push through the 72 cent level again with limited effect and again drifting back to the opening levels for the move into the NYK session, as with the other sessions the market pushed through 72 cents failed and took till the end of the London session for the final run at the level and held above through to the close and the highs close to 0.7220.
  • EUR: Euro’s drifted through the Asian and much of the London session rising initially from the opening around the 1.1390 level to test the 1.1400 area before moving into the Tokyo session and falling back to range quietly just below the 1.1385 areas, the move towards the grey hour saw the market recovering the opening areas above 1.13900 and again testing to the 1.1400 level, grey hours selling followed by London pushing the market to the opening in NYK to the 1.1355 area, with the midterm elections occupying the news the better service PMI and ISM number couldn’t curb the rise in the Euro pushing through the 1.1400 level and holding for a little longer the market dipped only once London close and only through to the opening level before putting in a strong push through to the 1.1425 area before running into sufficient offers to force the market slowly through to the close holding just above the 1.1400 area.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY:        BoJ Minutes of policy meeting

AUD:     TD Securities inflation MoM Oct A 0.10% | 0.30%

CNY:      Caixin PMI Services Oct A 50.8 | C 52.9 | P 53.1

GBP:      Services PMI Oct A 52.2 | C 53.4 | P 53.9

EUR:      Eurozone Sentix investor confidence Nov A 8.8 | C 9.9 | P 11.4

USD:      Services PMI Oct (F) A 54.8 | C 54.7 | P 54.7

USD:      ISM Non-Manufacturing services composite Oct A 60.3 | C 59.5 | P 61.6

               

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.