Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.979 | EURUSD 1.13619 | AUDUSD 0.71049 | NZDUSD 0.6842 | USDCAD 1.32119 | USDCHF 1.0025 | GBPUSD 1.29298 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13706 | 1.13569
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.031 | 109.729
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29711 | 1.29257
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00288 | 1.00156
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71135 | 0.70935
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32453 | 1.32032
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.67776 | 0.67447
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13944 | 1.13902
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87904 | 0.87694
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.044 | 124.689
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2930 levels and sharp rise spiking through to the 1.2950 levels before dropping back to the 1.2940 level and then moving slowly through into the Tokyo session holding around the 1.2935 areas, the market drifted a little through midsession before rising again to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.2900 areas with congestion then through the level, the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.2840 area before some weakness appears with limited bids into the 1.2800 area and possible further congestion below. topside offers light through to the 1.3000 levels with weak stops likely on a push through the level before stronger congestion starts to appear on a move through to the 1.3050 level and increasing through to the 1.3100.
- JPY: Opening just below the 110.00 areas with the make making an early push to the 110.02 area before drifting back on the first refusal to break, the move to the Tokyo opening testing back to the 109.90 areas, the Tokyo opening saw the market spike through to the 110.04 level before reacting for the second time to the offers and dropping quickly back to the 109.70 level before starting a slow but steady recovery through to the grey hours holding above the 109.90 levels. Obviously topside offers above the 110.00 level with weak stop likely on a move through the 110.20 level and then further congestion quickly reappearing into the 110.40-60 areas and increasing into the 111.00 level and possibly stronger offers appearing, downside bids congested through the 109.40-00 areas with possible strong bids on any dip through the figure area and through to weak stops on a break through the 108.80-70 level.
- AUD: Opening just above the 0.7100 level the market saw slow selling through the level but holding generally around the figure, the market pushed a little higher but was unable to test the 0.7115 area and having done so the market drifted off again and this time tested to the 0.7095 level into the grey hours. Downside bids into the 0.7080 level with possible weak stops and a move through the level, some weak congestion likely into the 0.7050 levels however, the 70 cents level is likely to see stronger bids appearing. Topside offers weak through to the 0.7160 area with limited congestion through the area and continuing through to the 72 cents level stronger offers possible with weak stops on a move through the 0.7220 area and the 73 cent area strongly contested.
- EUR: A slow drift through the session after weakly pushing through to the 1.1370 area Tokyo were slow sellers and the market drifted through to late in the session into the high 1.1350’s before returning to just above the 1.1360 level for the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.1350 level with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.1300 areas and stronger bids appearing on a move through the level a break through the 1.1275 areas could see weak stops appearing and the market making a quick stab lower before finding stronger bids into the 1.1220-00 areas, topside offers weak through the 1.1400 area and the market limited in stops with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.1450 areas, stronger offers on a push to the 1.1480-1.1500 levels with weak stops likely above the 1.1520 level.
Overnight News
NZD:
NZ will not include immigration revision in Jobs data until 4Q
USD:
NYK Fed’s recession indicator at highest since 2008
GBP:
PM May delays vote on deal until month before Brexit amid warnings article 50 extension is inevitable Telegraph
EUR/GBP:
Tusk’s “Place in Hell†jibe reflects fear of Brexiteers grip BBG
EUR:
IMF says Italy falls short on reforms, growth below 1% seen
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Construction Index Jan A 43.1 | P 42.6
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Q4 A 4.30% | C 4.10% | P 3.90% | R 4.00%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Q/Q Q4 A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 1.10% | R 1.00%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cost Private Sector Q/Q Q4 A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q4 A 1 | P 3
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index CI Dec (P) A 97.90% | C 97.90% | P 99.10%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Dec C 0.80% | P -1.90%
08:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Jan P 729B
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monthly Economic Bulletin
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.75% | P 0.75%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Feb C 435B | P 435B
12:00    GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:00    GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Inflation Report
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 2) C 220K | P 253K
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -173B
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Another quiet Asian session saw the market holding the 1.2950 areas through to the grey hours, opening just below the level and the market rallying through to the 1.2960 area before holding quietly through into early London, European comments from Tusk and Juncker left a bitter taste in the UK with plenty of the media following up on the comments, early sellers saw the market through to the 1.2920’s before bouncing a little as European numbers saw Germany’s factory orders dropping sharply before bouncing and the market trading steadily through to the 1.2970 areas and a period of choppy movement with the NYK session testing towards the 1.2980 however, the run to the London close saw the market dropping back through the 1.2950 levels and testing slowly through the 1.2940 areas and a slow drift to the close.
- JPY: Another quiet day for the USDJPY with the market opening around the 109.95 areas and after a slight dip into the Tokyo session rising through the 110.00 level failing and dropping quickly back to 109.60 and almost the low on the day, the market held in a tight range after ranging in the 109.70-80 areas before early London sold the market through to the high 109.50 areas to make the low, a slow rise through deep into the Tokyo session and then rising a little faster as the London market closed pushing again to the 110.00 and only able to lightly trade through the level.
- AUD: Comments from RBA’s Lowe saw the Oz dropping from the 0.7245 level and testing quickly through to the 0.7170 area before slowing its descent drifting through to the London session testing to the 0.7125 areas before holding quietly through to deep in the NYK session and the slow drift began again testing through to the 0.7105 levels into the close.
- EUR: Early highs made around the 1.1410 area the market then started a slow drift through to the 1.1400 level and then traded quietly around the level through into the grey hours, early Europeans sold the market through to the early morning traders and testing the 1.1380 area before London slowly traded around the 1.1390 level to the NYK session, NYK were slow but steady sellers and the market drifted down through the congestion to the 1.1360 level before holding for a long run to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Dec A -1.60% | C 0.30% | P -1.00% | R -0.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Dec A 6.00% | C -0.40% | P 2.60% | R 2.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Nov A -49.3B | C -54.0B | P -55.5B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Jan A 54.7 | C 60.2 | P 59.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 1.3M | C 1.3M | P 0.9M
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