Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.491 | EURUSD 1.12327 | AUDUSD 0.71127 | NZDUSD 0.67862 | USDCAD 1.3346 | USDCHF 0.99817 | GBPUSD 1.31589 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12475 | 1.12369

USDJPY                 111.522 | 111.364

GBPUSD               1.31814 | 1.31599

USDCHF               0.99798 | 0.99715

AUDUSD              0.71271 | 0.71101

USDCAD               1.33552 | 1.33384

NZDUSD               0.67991 | 0.67814

EURCHF                1.12197 | 1.12124

EURGBP               0.85402 | 0.85288

EURJPY                 125.394 | 125.184

For Today

  • GBP: Votes over with only the bill to stop a no Brexit deal passed however, this is not likely to be implemented and become law in time for the April 12th deadline and the EU still pushing for resolution so putting more pressure on the Govt to resolve Brexit one way or no Brexit deal happens before it can be stopped, the market reacted with a slight push through to the 1.3180 levels from the reopening however, from that point the market stalled and held around the 1.3175 levels through to the grey hour, topside offers a little thinner to the topside with a push through the 1.3200 likely to find strong offers through to the 1.3220 area before congestion starts to thin out and opening the market a little but congestion is likely to remain all through the 1.32 handle increasing on any move above the 1.3260 seeing stronger clusters, downside weak stop likely on a dip back through the 1.3150 areas with light congestion possibly absorbing those bids into the 1.3100 level with a test through the 1.3080 level opening the market to stronger stops and 1.3000 then the target with strong bids into that level.
  • JPY: A quiet inside day for the USDJPY with the market drifting in early trading through to make the lows in early Tokyo around the 111.35 area before rallying steadily through to the 111.50 levels after the comments from various Ministers and BoJ officials however, the highs were short lived and the market drifted through to the grey hour holding just off the low, Light congestion through to the 110.80 area with possible weak stops through opening the market to the 110.60-40 light congested areas with the market increasing on the bid side into the 110.00 levels with congestion likely to continue through to the 109.80-75 areas before weak stops appear and the market struggles through to the 109.60-30 level likely to slow the market on any dip before weaker bids protest the 109.00 level and stops likely on a dip through the 108.70 levels. Topside congestion likely to increase in size on any move through to the 111.60 level and ultimately strong offers into the 112.00 level with a possible small squeeze through the 112.20 areas and opening a test higher.
  • AUD: Limited movement with a slow push from the opening 0.7110 area through to the upper 0.7120’s before dropping back to hold the opening levels into the grey hour, downside congestion through to the 70 cents level and stronger bids through the 0.7020-00 areas supporting the market for the moment with bigger stops on any dip through the level, topside offers into  the 0.7150 level with possible weak stops appearing on a push through the 0.7160 level, higher the market goes from there the stronger the bids become into the 72cents area and stops likely on a push through before congestion and stronger offers reappear.
  • EUR: Slow trading through the session with the market moving off the opening level to test into the upper 1.1240’s but never really looking strong enough to clear the offers so held quietly through to late into session before dipping back to the 1.1240 level for the move into the grey hour, downside bids through the 1.1200 area and through to the 1.1180 level with weak stops on a move through the level possible, congestion starts to appear and likely to be plenty of it on any move through the 1.11 handle and too the 1.1120 levels and stronger bids appearing, topside offers light through to the 1.1280-1.1300 areas with weak stops on any move through the 1.1320 areas to open a quick test to the 1.1350 levels before stronger congestion starts to appear the closer to the 1.1400 you get.

 

Overnight News

GBP:

Brexit Minister warns that vote by MPs last night to kill of no deal has actually increased the risk of it Daily Mail

Government spokesperson says passed no’s 5 bill would place severe constraint on govt. ability to negotiate an extension RTRS

MP’s back Brexit delay bill by one vote BBC

Every region of England and Wales happy to leave the EU without a deal UKT

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have agreed never to agree to anything – IND

JPY:

Abe: Japan isn’t applying modern monetary theory

Abe: Japan is maintaining trust as Yen is bought in crisis

Kuroda: Hard to accept idea of modern monetary theory

Kuroda: MMT idea of not considering deficit seems extreme

Japan’s Aso: no plan to test modern monetary theory in Japan

Kuroda: Not just prices, must also consider financial system

Kuroda: Low rates, falling population weigh on banks profits

Kuroda: responds to question in parliament

Kuroda: Regional banks have ample cash, liquidity

Kuroda: Need to continue to watch banks profitability

Kuroda: It will take some time to hit price target

Kuroda: BoJ needs to continue easing persistently

BoJ’s new price view to be lowest under Kuroda ex official says – BBG

AUD:

RBA paper discusses links between wages and Union membership BFW

Finder: 9% of mortgage holders in severe stress – MB

USD:

America’s bet on China’s mythical reformers isn’t going so well BBG

USD/CNY:

The enforcement conundrum in US-China trade talks

China appears to be keeping commitments on AG purchases BBG

US said to set 2025 target for China to fulfil trade pledges BBG

US said to want binding China pledges, enforced by tariffs

US said to want timetable for China purchases, market access

China’s Liu, USTR Lighthizer resume talks in push for a deal – BBG

EUR/GBP:

Juncker tells UK parliament to reach Brexit deal by April 12 – FT

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

06:00     EUR        German Factory Orders M/M Feb C 0.30% | P -2.60%

11:30     USD       Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Mar P 117.20%

11:30     EUR        ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

12:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 30) C 215K | P 211K

14:00     CAD       Ivey PMI Mar C 51.4 | P 50.6

14:30     USD       Natural Gas Storage P -36B

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A steady range through the Asian session with the market opening around the 1.3135 level and a slow push towards the 1.3145 level and ranging around the highs through into the grey hours, early buyers moved in on a concerted push through the 1.3150 level and quickly rose through to the 1.3195 area before holding for an hour or so before dipping back quickly to the 1.3150 level and ranging through to the NYK session and the market dipping through to the 1.3125 as buyers cut positions before the market hit the opening levels and holding for a long drawn out push back above the 1.3150 level and holding in a quiet run to the close.
  • JPY: Initially dipping into the Tokyo session from the opening 111.35 levels to test lightly through the 111.25 area before sharply moving higher with the better retail sales in Oz driving the AUDJPY higher, taking the market through to the 111.50 level the market throughout the rest of the day was dull in comparison with the market centring around the 111.45 levels for the most part with limited dips to the opening levels and the market unable to fully push through the 111.55 level but finishing in the positive area.
  • AUD: Slowly ebbing market from the opening saw the market pushing for the 0.7050 from the opening around the 0.7070 level, the release of a very strong retail sales number saw the market gap to the 0.71 cents level before holding quietly through to just before the grey hour before starting a slower grind through to the 0.7130 level and holding through to the London close before starting to slowly drift through to the close maintaining most of the gains.
  • EUR: A very limited day for the Euro with much of the movement in line with Brexit commentary and pushing initially from the 1.1200 area opening to push above the 1.1220 area on the back of Oz movement and holding quietly in that area through to the London session before stronger PMI numbers helped the market to push off the area through to a gradual test through the 1.1250 level and then a slow drift into the NYK session giving up much of the gain, the move through to the end of London saw a limited rally but could never recover the 1.1250 levels and again drifted to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       AiG Performance of Service Index Mar A 44.8 | P 44.5

GBP       BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Mar A 0.90% | P 0.70%

NZD       ANZ Commodity Price Mar A 1.40% | P 2.80%

AUD       Retail Sales M/M Feb A 0.80% | C 0.30% | P 0.10%

AUD       Trade Balance (AUD) Feb A 4.80B | C 3.71B | P 4.55B | R 4.35B

CNY        Caixin PMI Services Mar A 54.4 | C 52 | P 51.1

EUR        Italy Services PMI Mar A 53.1 | C 50.6 | P 50.4

EUR        France Services PMI Mar (F) A 49.1 | C 48.9 | P 48.7

EUR        Germany Services PMI Mar (F) A 55.4 | C 54.9 | P 54.9

EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Mar (F) A 53.3 | C 52.7 | P 52.7

GBP       Services PMI Mar A 48.9 | C 51 | P 51.3

EUR        Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb A 0.40% | C 0.10% | P 1.30% | R 0.90%

USD       ADP Employment Change Mar A 129K | C 184K | P 183K | R 197K

USD       Services PMI Mar (F) A 55.3 | C 54.8 | P 54.8

USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite Mar A 56.1 | C 58 | P 59.7

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 7.2M | C -0.7M | P 2.8M

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.